A Spectral Filtering Approach to Regret Analysis of Distributed Online Control for Linear Dynamical Systems

Motivated by the challenge of stabilizing a general unknown linear dynamical system (LDS) from observations, we study the natural prerequisite of online prediction. Our goal is to achieve sublinear regret with a memory footprint that adapts to the intrinsic complexity of the dynamics rather than the full hidden-state dimension. We focus on the practically central regime of systems with low instability complexity -- eigenvalues outside the real stable interval that do not decay rapidly, together with non-semisimple modes -- potentially embedded in an otherwise stable real spectrum of much higher dimension; we write $k$ for this count. This regime is the primary setting in which stabilization is plausible: we show that many systems with high instability complexity cannot be stabilized without exponentially large controls. Thus, prediction is meaningful for stabilization precisely when the instability complexity is small. Within this regime, we introduce a unified online algorithm that handles every LDS (including non-diagonalizable systems with complex or exploding modes) with a learnable parameter count of $\widetilde{O}(k)$. Finally, we prove a lower bound showing that $k$ is a valid complexity measure: any filter-based predictor needs at least $k$ filters. Experiments corroborate our theory: on a high-dimensional system, our predictor sharply outperforms prior methods at an equal parameter budget.

We study the problem of adaptive control of the stochastic linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with constraints that must be satisfied at every time step. Prior work on the multidimensional problem has shown $\tilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret and satisfaction of robust constraints, leaving open the question of whether $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret can be attained in the constrained LQR setting. We contribute to this problem by showing $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret and satisfaction of chance constraints. This type of constraints allow us to handle unbounded noise and also enable analytical techniques not directly applicable to robust constraints. Our proposed algorithm for this problem uses an SDP to select an optimistic policy, and then "scales back" this policy until it is verifiably-safe. Our theoretical analysis establishes regret and constraint guarantees via a key lemma that bounds the system covariance in terms of the chosen policy. This covariance-based analysis is in contrast with the cost-to-go based analysis that is typically used in adaptive LQR.

We study online prediction for marginally stable, partially observed linear dynamical systems under nonstochastic disturbances. Our objective is to minimize the cumulative squared prediction loss and compete with the best-in-hindsight Luenberger predictor. Standard online learning methods typically rely on bounded domains/gradients, and thus their guarantees may fail to deal with potentially unbounded trajectories in marginally stable systems. In this paper, we introduce an unconstrained online least squares method that stabilizes the learning process via tailored predictive hints. With model knowledge, we prove that hints constructed from any stabilizing Luenberger predictor render the hint residuals uniformly bounded, achieving logarithmic regret despite unbounded trajectory growth. We also discuss model-free prediction and introduce a simple universal hint for symmetric systems, under which logarithmic regret is maintained without model knowledge. Our results provide an adaptive, instance-wise optimal online predictor compared to classical fixed-gain observers under nonstochastic disturbances.