Representing Visual Evidence for Item Difficulty Prediction: Visual Textualization and Image-Native Modeling

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.

Accurate estimates of item difficulty are essential for valid assessment and effective adaptive learning. However, for newly created tasks, response data are typically unavailable. Pretesting and expert judgement can be costly and slow, while machine learning methods often require large labelled training datasets. Recent work suggests that large language models (LLMs) may help. However, there is limited evidence on the elicitation procedures and prompt configurations used to emulate experts for difficulty estimation. This study addresses this gap by evaluating three off-the-shelf LLMs as difficulty raters for newly created items without access to response data. Using an item bank from an online learning system, the study examined 6 domains of primary-school mathematics, with empirical difficulty estimates treated as empirical reference. The study used a full factorial design crossing three factors: judgement format (absolute vs pairwise), decision type (hard decisions vs token-probability-based estimates), and prompting strategy (zero-shot vs few-shot). LLM-derived difficulty estimates were compared with empirical difficulties using Spearman rank correlations. Across domains, LLM-based estimates exhibited moderate to strong positive correlations with empirical item difficulties. For simpler arithmetic tasks, some configurations approached the upper end of the accuracy range reported for human experts in previous research. Pairwise comparison consistently outperformed absolute judgement in the absence of additional refinements. However, when token-level probabilities were incorporated and examples of items with known empirical difficulty were provided, the absolute judgement configuration likewise demonstrated moderate-to-high alignment. The study positions LLMs as a promising tool for initial item calibration and offers insights into effective workflow configuration.

The generation of mathematically precise diagrams from tex- tual prompts has emerged as a critical yet underexplored capability of Large Language Models (LLMs). This has been of interest to researchers in the areas of curriculum preparation, automated ranking of problem sets, and scientific publishing. For LLMs to achieve this, it requires per- fect coordination between Spatial Reasoning, Mathematical Reasoning, and Rendering systems. While existing benchmarks such as MathVision, MathVista are built for Math Reasoning or DiagramGenBenchmark, Mer- maidSeqBench on general purpose diagram generation, no prior work provides a standardized set of prompt, image pairs that can be used to evaluate the LLMs specifically on math diagram generation. This includes fields that span both both text-to-code and text-to-image paradigms. We introduce Math-Vision Diagrams, the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LLMs on mathematical diagram generation, and the first to assess text-to-code and text-to-image generation paradigms together in a single unified setting, agnostic of the underlying coding lan- guage or model type. Building on the Math-Vision benchmark, we select a subset of 2920 images out of 3040 from high-quality competition problems with essential visual context. A novel pipeline combining an ensemble of LLMs with Subject Matter Expert (SME) curation is presented, together with a suite of evaluation metrics. Testing several leading models against this benchmark, we demonstrate that LLMs struggle with math diagram generation. All code, data, curation pipeline, and evaluation scripts will be fully open-sourced.