Abstract
Event-centric intelligent analytical systems heavily depend on explicit causal event knowledge for risk early warning, decision-making support and narrative comprehension. Nevertheless, existing instance-level causal pairs suffer severe generalization deficits on low-frequency long-tail and unseen event combinations. To address this limitation, this work proposes Abstract Event Causal Rule (AECR), a novel relation-level causal abstraction paradigm that transforms concrete cause-effect pairs into generalized abstract causal logic while retaining their intrinsic causal relationships. We design a multi-agent Concrete-to-Abstract Causal Induction (CACI) system coupled with similarity-constrained clustering to distill trustworthy AECRs from noisy raw causal data, based on which two complete AECR knowledge bases are built. To validate the practical utility of abstract causal knowledge, we propose an Abstract Rule-Guided Causal Attention Encoder (AR-GCAE), which injects the retrieved AECRs into the causality Graph Event Prediction (CGEP) benchmark task via rule-guided attention layers and gated representation fusion. Quantitative experimental results reveal that applying AECRs substantially strengthens the generalization capacity of event causal reasoning and brings consistent performance improvements to event prediction, with the most prominent gains observed on rare and unseen event samples.
Explore similar work
May 5, 2026cs.CL
Event Causality Identification (ECI) requires models to determine whether a given pair of events in a context exhibits a causal relationship. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across various NLP tasks, their effectiveness in ECI remains limited due to biases in causal reasoning, often leading to overprediction of causal relationships (causal hallucination). To mitigate these issues and enhance LLM performance in ECI, we propose SERE, a structural example retrieval framework that leverages LLMs' few-shot learning capabilities. SERE introduces an innovative retrieval mechanism based on three structural concepts: (i) Conceptual Path Metric, which measures the conceptual relationship between events using edit distance in ConceptNet; (ii) Syntactic Metric, which quantifies structural similarity through tree edit distance on syntactic trees; and (iii) Causal Pattern Filtering, which filters examples based on predefined causal structures using LLMs. By integrating these structural retrieval strategies, SERE selects more relevant examples to guide LLMs in causal reasoning, mitigating bias and improving accuracy in ECI tasks. Extensive experiments on multiple ECI datasets validate the effectiveness of SERE. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/SERE.
Zhifeng Hao, Zhongjie Chen, Junhao Lu +5
Feb 16, 2026cs.LG
Estimating causal quantities traditionally relies on bespoke estimators tailored to specific assumptions. Recently proposed Causal Foundation Models (CFMs) promise a more unified approach by amortising causal discovery and inference in a single step. However, in their current state, they do not allow for the incorporation of any domain knowledge, which can lead to suboptimal predictions. We bridge this gap by introducing methods to condition CFMs on causal information, such as the causal graph or more readily available ancestral information. When access to complete causal graph information is too strict a requirement, our approach also effectively leverages partial causal information. We systematically evaluate conditioning strategies and find that injecting learnable biases into the attention mechanism, together with a graph-convolutional encoder, is a highly effective method to utilise full and partial causal information. Our experiments show that this conditioning allows a general-purpose CFM to match the performance of specialised models trained on specific causal structures. Overall, our approach addresses a central hurdle on the path towards all-in-one causal foundation models: the capability to answer causal queries in a data-driven manner while effectively leveraging any amount of domain expertise.
Arik Reuter, Anish Dhir, Cristiana Diaconu +6
Jun 17, 2026cs.LG
Causal abstractions formalize when a high-level structural causal model (SCM) captures the interventional behavior of a lower-level SCM. Existing applications of this notion largely follow a hypothesis-testing paradigm: an expert proposes a candidate high-level model and then evaluates if the low-level system implements it. We study the complementary problem of learning a high-level model directly from low-level measurements. Our contributions leverage hypotheses from low-rank causal discovery, and can be summarized as follows: (1) we show that observations generated by a low-rank graph induce latents that form a causal abstraction, (2) we provide identifiability results about these latents, and (3) we propose a practical objective to learn this high-level SCM.
Théo Saulus, Simon Lacoste-Julien, Dhanya Sridhar