Organizations: Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University College Station, Texas, USA
Abstract
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models for discrete sequential data but can be limited when hidden dynamics are complex. Hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) generalize HMMs by replacing probability vectors with density matrices and stochastic transitions with quantum operations, enabling richer latent representations. However, existing HQMM learning methods have not consistently outperformed Expectation--Maximization (EM)-trained HMMs on data not generated by quantum processes, limiting their practical applicability. We introduce NS-RIS, Newton--Schulz Retraction-based Inference on the Stiefel manifold, a scalable algorithm for learning trace-preserving HQMMs. NS-RIS uses Newton--Schulz orthogonalization to compute a polar-factor search direction while preserving Stiefel-manifold feasibility, avoiding costly matrix decompositions. We further establish a finite-time stationarity guarantee under standard assumptions on smoothness, stochastic gradients, and finite Newton--Schulz accuracy. Empirically, NS-RIS provides the first benchmark evidence that an HQMM can significantly outperform an EM-trained HMM on data not generated by a quantum model. On synthetic HMM-generated benchmarks, NS-RIS outperforms both EM and the state-of-the-art HQMM method COSM, improving the evaluation metric by an average of 38.5% and by up to 50.6%. On a synthetic HQMM benchmark, it improves the test metric over COSM by 18.9% while reducing runtime by 12.0%. On the real-world Splice classification benchmark, NS-RIS also surpasses both EM and COSM in higher-dimensional latent regimes, reducing mean classification error by 17.9% for latent dimension 6 and 14.9% for latent dimension 8 relative to COSM. These results move HQMMs beyond a theoretical generalization of HMMs and establish them as practical and expressive models for scientific sequence data.
Maximum likelihood prediction (MLP) is a core task at the heart of modern large language models. Here, we study a quantum version of this task for a simplified data model consisting of independent and identically distributed samples, as a first step. The quantum maximum likelihood predictor (QMLP) is obtained by embedding of empirical probability distributions into quantum states and performing a minimization of quantum relative entropy over a given class of states. We derive non-asymptotic performance guarantees for QMLP in terms of convergence rates and concentration inequalities, both in trace norm and quantum relative entropy. Our approach provides a unified framework to handle MLP within both classical and quantum LLMs. We also consider the related problem of quantum information projection and generalize the quantum Pythagorean theorem to mixture families specified by possibly non-self-adjoint linear constraints. We further show that the Pythagorean inequality continues to hold in the infinite-dimensional setting whenever the convex information-projection problem attains a finite minimum.
We describe libhmm, a C++20 library for Hidden Markov Model parameter estimation, sequence decoding, and model selection. libhmm addresses two gaps in existing software: the absence of a well-maintained, zero-dependency C++ HMM library suitable for embedding in production systems, and the widespread use of method-of-moments (MOM) approximations in the emission distribution M-step of the Baum-Welch algorithm. The library implements correct maximum likelihood estimators for sixteen scalar emission distributions, including an ECME algorithm for the location-scale Student-t distribution, Newton-Raphson maximization for Gamma, Beta, Weibull, and Negative Binomial distributions, and the von Mises distribution for circular data. All forward-backward and Viterbi calculations operate in full log-space. SIMD acceleration is provided for AVX-512, AVX2, SSE2, and ARM NEON via compile-time dispatch with scalar fallback. Version 4 adds multivariate observation support via the BasicHmm<Obs> template, with three multivariate emission families (diagonal Gaussian, full-covariance Gaussian, and independent components) each with correct weighted MLE M-steps. Python bindings are available via the companion package pylibhmm. We compare libhmm against established C and C++ HMM libraries and against published R reference packages on seven real-data benchmarks, and discuss the architectural tradeoffs made in the design.
Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) are fundamental probabilistic models widely adopted across diverse domains, from computational biology to finance and signal processing. The Viterbi algorithm decodes the most likely state sequence given an HSMM and can be applied iteratively for ab initio model learning. However, existing Viterbi implementations remain sequential, and GPU-accelerated solutions are entirely absent, making HSMM decoding impractical for large-scale workloads. We present a tensor-based formulation of the Viterbi algorithm for HSMMs, restructuring the inner loops into tensor operations that naturally map onto SIMD units and massively parallel architectures. Building on this formulation, we provide optimized implementations spanning single- and multi-core CPUs, and, for the first time, GPU. Experimental evaluation demonstrates speedups of up to 14x on a single core, over 200x with multi-core, and over 570x on GPU over the state-of-the-art sequential baseline, establishing a new performance baseline for large-scale HSMM decoding.