Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series. In this work, we investigate the representa- tional power of GNNs for forecasting under both static and dynamic settings (i.e., when pairwise correlations evolve drastically over time) and identify critical limitations in current architectures. To formalize this, we first propose Temporal Correlation Volatility (TCV), a model- agnostic metric designed to quantify the distributional evolution of these latent structures. We establish a clear connection between TCV and performance degradation, demonstrating that many popular models, including Transformers, generalize poorly in high-TCV settings and are often outperformed by simple structure-agnostic baselines. To address these limitations, we propose Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic En- vironments (GLIDE), a novel GNN layer enhanced by two theoretically grounded design mechanisms: (D1) Path-based Message Passing, which captures path-based neighborhoods and (D2) Static and Dynamic Propagation Separation, which identifies optimal dynamics via local static approximation. These components significantly improve learning under dynamic topology while preserving robustness in static scenarios. Ex- tensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings, with the largest gain reaching 85.7%. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChenS676/GLIDE.
The growing interest in Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) stems from their ability to model complex dynamics and deliver superior performance. However, TGNNs encounter fundamental challenges in capturing long-term dependencies and identifying periodic patterns. To address these limitations, we propose TGFormer, a novel Transformer architecture specifically designed for temporal graphs. Our model redefines temporal graph learning by establishing a trajectory framework that aligns with time series analysis principles. This approach allows TGFormer to derive node representations through systematic analysis of historical interactions, enabling granular examination of node relationships across sequential timestamps. Building upon stochastic process theory, we develop an auto-correlation mechanism that systematically uncovers periodic dependencies in node interactions. This innovation empowers TGFormer to perform dependency discovery and representation aggregation at sub-interaction levels, demonstrating superior efficiency and accuracy compared to conventional attention mechanisms. Experimental validation across six public benchmarks confirms the effectiveness of our approach, with TGFormer at most achieving 9.35% precision improvement compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
Temporal graph networks suffer from irregular supervision in realworld dynamic graphs, as most minibatches contain few labeled events. The lack of labels leads to high-variance gradient updates and, consequently, slow wall-clock convergence. To constructively reduce sparsity, our Moving-Averaged Labels (MAL) assigns soft pseudo-targets based on past supervised signals using a running label distribution while leaving the loss and the model architecture unchanged. Thus, supervision gaps are replaced with informative signals independent of a temporal graph model and the message passing or memory components used. Theoretical analysis supports our insight that aggregating historical supervision into moving average targets reduces stochastic gradient variance, yielding faster convergence under mild assumptions. Experimentally, for TGNv2 and DyRepv2 (our modification of DyRep) models, MAL boosts predictive performance, establishing a new SOTA, and improves time-to-accuracy (on average 6x faster to reach the top score) for a common suite of Temporal Graph Benchmark datasets.
Alexander Panyshev, Dmitry Vinichenko, Oleg Travkin +2
Predicting links in sparse, continuously evolving networks is a central challenge in network science. Conventional heuristic methods and deep learning models, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), are typically designed for static graphs and thus struggle to capture temporal dependencies. Snapshot-based techniques partially address this issue but often encounter data sparsity and class imbalance, particularly in networks with transient interactions such as telecommunication call detail records (CDRs). Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) model dynamic graphs by updating node embeddings over time; however, their predictive accuracy under sparse conditions remains limited. In this study, we improve the TGN framework by extracting enclosing subgraphs around candidate links, enabling the model to jointly learn structural and temporal information. Experiments on a sparse CDR, email, message dataset show that our approach increases average precision by at least 2% over standard TGNs, demonstrating the advantages of integrating local topology for robust link prediction in dynamic networks.