Conformal Coverage Guarantees for Any Video Temporal Grounder
Authors: Aseel Mohamed, Rasul Khanbayov, Erchin Serpedin, Hasan Kurban
Abstract
Event boundaries in continuous video are ambiguous: re-annotate the same query-video pair and independent annotators mark moments that overlap by less than half on a large fraction of samples. The ground truth for video temporal grounding is therefore a distribution over intervals, yet every grounder returns a single interval with no statement of reliability, so at deployment a wrong interval is indistinguishable from a right one. COVER changes the output object: a post-hoc, model-agnostic wrapper that turns any grounder, a trained localizer or a black-box video--language model, into one that emits a temporal region containing the true moment with probability at least 1−α, by calibrating the quantile of a temporal nonconformity score on held-out labels and widening the base prediction by that amount. The guarantee is finite-sample and distribution-free under exchangeability, and requires neither retraining nor white-box access. We give two score families, a two-sided boundary-widening score for grounders that emit an interval and a super-level-set score for grounders that emit a relevance signal, and develop theory specific to grounding that bounds how large the certified region becomes, when coverage survives conditioning on event length, and how it degrades when moments from one video break exchangeability. Across three benchmarks and five grounders, realized coverage tracks the target, and calibration exposes what point metrics hide.
Current Video-LLM approaches for Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) typically rely on direct timestamp generation from an unstructured visual-token stream, often leading to brittle numerics and inconsistent boundaries. To address this, we propose Foresee-to-Ground (F2G), a framework that reformulates VTG as a verifiable Identify-then-Measure problem. F2G integrates Predictive Temporal Perception with Evidence-Driven Reasoning: it learns boundary-sensitive temporal representations to build a video-wide evidence pool of candidate event segments, and exposes these segments to the LLM as citable evidence units that bind boundary prediction to explicit event hypotheses. By decoupling event identification from precise boundary measurement, F2G stabilizes grounding and makes predictions verifiable. Extensive experiments demonstrate that F2G consistently improves grounding accuracy across diverse benchmarks, transfers robustly across different Video-LLM backbones, and preserves general video understanding capabilities.
Video temporal grounding (VTG) aims to localize the continuous video interval described by a natural-language query. However, current VLM-based methods typically produce this interval indirectly through two endpoint outputs, represented either as discrete timestamp tokens or continuous boundary coordinates. These formulations differ in how endpoints are encoded, but not in what is predicted: the event interval remains a derived object, while interval validity, duration, and interval-level similarity are handled only implicitly. We propose TimePLE, which reformulates VTG from endpoint prediction to interval-native grounding by predicting a single joint distribution over valid temporal intervals. TimePLE maps each interval to a point in a canonical position-duration square, where every support point corresponds to a valid span and neighboring points represent geometrically similar intervals. Given a video and query, the VLM generates a single latent <|TIMESPAN|> token whose hidden state is decoded into a joint interval distribution, refined through duration-aware coordinate correction, and converted into continuous boundaries. The same interval representation is used to encode input temporal anchors, aligning video-side temporal evidence with output-side span prediction. To reliably align the latent span representation with complete event intervals, we curate 90K-scale grounded samples and human-verify 3K-scale benchmark annotations. Experiments across four VTG benchmarks show that TimePLE consistently outperforms endpoint prediction baselines, achieving an average mIoU of 58.9, with clear gains on short-duration and medium-duration events.
Multimodal large language models have made rapid progress in video temporal grounding, yet real-world applications routinely require localizing every event that satisfies compositional temporal and spatial conditions. Existing benchmarks fall short: they localize only a single moment per query, count without temporal conditions, or treat grounding and counting as disjoint tasks. We introduce CoMET-Bench for Conditional Multi-Event Temporal Grounding in long-form video, comprising 2789 queries over 600 videos averaging 33.8 minutes across five real-world domains, with each query composed from 4 temporal conditions, 3 spatial conditions, and a dedicated negative-query subset. We further propose a unified evaluation protocol jointly measuring counting, grounding, and negative-query recognition, including a new Rejection-F1 metric that prevents trivial gaming by lazy "always-empty" models. Benchmarking a broad suite of MLLMs, agent-based, and grounding-specialized methods reveals that existing approaches remain far from solving this task. Building on these findings, we propose CoMET-Agent, a training-free agentic framework that reformulates the task as structured search-and-aggregate, improving F1@0.5 by 6.1% over GPT-5 purely through structural reasoning. Failure analysis further surfaces three open directions: fine-grained entity tracking, position-uniform retrieval, and causal event pairing.