Evaluating Dedicated Monolingual and Joint Multilingual Causal Models for Dravidian Languages

Multilingual Large Language Models (mLLMs) leaderboards report per-language accuracy but rarely explain why disparities emerge, leaving systemic biases unattributed and offering practitioners no actionable levers. We first establish that these gaps are systematic rather than artifacts of sampling noise via distribution-free Friedman and Kruskal--Wallis tests, then introduce a two-step Bayesian hierarchical framework that decomposes multilingual performance variance into interpretable components. First, isolating the variance attributable to language identity, we show that observable language features (script, family, typological distance) explain $R^2_{\text{ling}} = 79\%$ of this variance on understanding tasks and $92\%$ on reasoning, with a model's internal representational similarity to English emerging as the dominant predictor across both task buckets. Second, decomposing the full (model$\times$benchmark$\times$language) cube, we find that NLU and reasoning have fundamentally divergent variance profiles: model identity dominates understanding ($66.7\%$ of variance), whereas the benchmark$\times$model interaction dominates reasoning ($46.3\%$). Together these results recast multilingual evaluation from passive performance mapping into an explainable, diagnostic framework with concrete levers for targeting the root drivers of language disparity.

Multilingual ASR models such as Whisper perform well on high-resource languages but exhibit substantially higher Word Error Rates (WER) for Dravidian languages compared to Indo-Aryan ones. Through linguistic and dataset analysis, we show that Dravidian languages have longer words, higher vocabulary diversity, and lower repetition, resulting in sparse token distributions and frequent character-level substitution errors. Baseline fine-tuning further reveals decoder imbalance between self-attention (linguistic context) and cross-attention (acoustic cues). Although synthetic token-repetition experiments indicate potential gains, they are impractical. Motivated by these observations, we introduce two decoder-level enhancements: Weighted-Attention, which adaptively balances attention sources, and Self-Conditioning, which reinjects intermediate predictions to improve token consistency. Experiments demonstrate consistent WER reductions for low-resource and agglutinative languages.

We present Marco-MoE, a suite of fully open multilingual sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. Marco-MoE features a highly sparse design in which only around 5% of the total parameters are activated per input token. This extreme sparsity, combined with upcycling from dense models, enables efficient pre-training on 5T tokens. Our models surpass similarly-sized competitors on English and multilingual benchmarks, achieving a best-in-class performance-to-compute ratio. We further post-train these models to create Marco-MoE-\textsc{Instruct} variants, which surpass the performance of competing models possessing $3$--$14\times$ more activated parameters. Our analysis reveals that Marco-MoE learns structured expert activation patterns shared across related languages, while maintaining highly specialized utilization for linguistically isolated ones. We further show that Marco-MoE allows for scalable language expansion without the interference typical of dense models. To support the community, we disclose our full training datasets, recipes, and model weights.