Prompt Embedding Probes (PEP): Hallucination Detection in LLMs from Hidden States

We investigate whether open-source LLMs encode a linearly separable truthfulness signal in their hidden states, and at which network depth this signal is strongest. Across three $7$B--$8$B instruction-tuned models (Llama-3.1-8B, Mistral-7B, Qwen2.5-7B) loaded in $4$-bit NF4 quantization, we extract per-layer hidden states on four hallucination benchmarks (TruthfulQA, HaluEval-QA, FEVER, and a controlled synthetic set) and compare four detection approaches: linear and MLP probes, INSIDE EigenScore, self-consistency, and attention entropy. A linear probe on a single mid-network layer achieves $0.904$--$1.000$ AUROC on held-out splits, while sampling-based detectors do not exceed $0.541$ AUROC under the same protocol. The truthfulness signal is approximately linear: MLP probes rarely surpass linear probes by more than $0.01$ AUROC. Peak probing layers fall in a consistent band across model families on natural-language benchmarks -- blocks~$13$--$18$ of~$32$ for Llama and Mistral, and blocks~$19$--$25$ of~$28$ for Qwen. First-block attention entropy provides a complementary signal in knowledge-grounded settings ($0.866$--$0.941$ AUROC on HaluEval-QA) at no additional inference cost. The low discriminability of sampling methods under this protocol reflects a structural mismatch between paired-label evaluation and the information these methods access, rather than an inherent limitation of those methods. Code and data are released for full reproducibility on a single $8$,GB GPU.

Large language models (LLMs) hallucinate with confidence: their outputs can be fluent, authoritative, and simply wrong. In medical, legal, and scientific applications this failure causes direct harm, and detecting it from internal model states offers a path to safer deployment. A growing body of work reports that this problem is increasingly tractable, with recent methods achieving high detection performance on widely used benchmarks. We show, however, that much of this apparent progress does not survive scrutiny. Four of the six corpora embed the ground-truth answer directly in the input prompt. A naïve text-similarity baseline we call \textsc{TxTemb} exploits this to achieve near-perfect detection scores without any access to model internals. To measure what genuine detection capability remains once these artifacts are controlled, we conduct a large-scale evaluation spanning twenty-two detection methods, twelve open-source models spanning six architectural families, and six corpora. We further introduce \textbf{DRIFT}, a supervised probe over inter-layer hidden-state transitions, as a point of comparison for live-generation detection. Our findings suggest that the field's reported progress on hallucination detection is substantially explained by benchmark construction artifacts in widely used corpora, and that the majority of established baselines perform near chance under controlled conditions; the consistent exceptions are SAPLMA and DRIFT, both supervised probes on upper-layer hidden states.

Detecting hallucination risk before generation enables abstention, retrieval augmentation, and routing decisions without incurring the cost of decoding. While prior work has shown that such risk can be estimated from a model's internal representations, existing approaches treat this as binary classification over a single decoded output. We instead formulate it as a risk-estimation problem. Under this formulation, we introduce soft-target supervision based on the empirical answer error rate over stochastically sampled outputs - an estimator we prove to be the unique unbiased minimum-variance estimator of the model's per-prompt error probability under its sampling distribution. We further adapt attention probing to the pre-generation setting, enabling the detector to selectively aggregate hallucination-relevant prompt representations. Across three question-answering benchmarks and five models, attention probing outperforms linear probing on short-answer tasks. Replacing binary labels with soft-target supervision further and consistently improves detection quality.