Commitment Before Realization: When Classifier-Free Guidance Becomes Unnecessary in Masked Diffusion Language Models

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is usually kept on throughout masked diffusion language model decoding, although its benefit varies across prompts and over time. We study when CFG is actually needed by comparing, from any partial output, the probability of eventual constraint satisfaction under continued CFG and under base-only continuation. Their difference defines the remaining value of guidance. Guidance dependence is highly prompt-specific. Many prompts already succeed without CFG, while for others it provides no measurable benefit or can be harmful. For prompts that do benefit, the gain is often concentrated early. We define the commitment horizon $\astar$ as the earliest point from which switching all remaining decoding to the base model reduces final success by no more than a chosen tolerance. Under the base model, the corresponding success probability, or committor, is a martingale. To first order, CFG's per-step effect is governed by the covariance between the guidance logit direction and the successor committor. This gives a local account of when guidance can help, but it does not by itself locate the horizon. Among prompts with an observed preterminal horizon, $\astar$ is usually early and varies more within constraint families than between them. Freezing each prompt at its own cross-fitted horizon is noninferior to full CFG on all 13 subtasks at the prespecified margin, even while many tokens remain masked. This separates commitment from realization. The boundary also identifies a later region in which higher parallelism adds only a small cost in constraint success, although fluency still degrades with parallel width. For failed trajectories, reopening committed positions improves recovery in both failure modes.