Agentic Auto-Research is Fuzz Testing

Auto Research uses language-model agents to propose, implement, and evaluate machine-learning changes in a closed loop, but is usually judged by its terminal pipeline. A terminal score cannot reveal which technical decision produced a gain or distinguish a reusable discovery from a change adapted to development feedback. We introduce intervention-centered Auto Research, which validates research decisions rather than only final artifacts and makes their reliability measurable. Feature, Model, Representation, and Data axes are searched independently with inner five-fold feedback. Each axis winner is frozen before an outer-holdout matrix compares all alternatives on evidence the loop never sees. Across 701 agent-executed attempts spanning ten Matbench endpoints, outer evidence confirms the selected intervention on nine of ten endpoints and preserves 89.3% of non-tied intervention orderings. It also rejects an aggregate Representation gain that inner feedback endorsed. The resulting matrix reveals an information-dependent hierarchy. Composition-only tasks support several routes to improvement, whereas structure-informed tasks favor local geometry features and complementary tree ensembles. A subsequent compatibility test combines already frozen Feature and Model code without further search or tuning and raises mean outer-holdout improvement from 19.0% to 26.3%. By validating decisions rather than only artifacts, this design turns adaptive search into reusable evidence wherever agents propose executable alternatives against a fixed evaluator.

We study auto research as a closed empirical loop driven by external measurement. Each submitted trial carries a hypothesis, an executable code edit, an evaluator-owned outcome, and feedback that shapes the next proposal. The output is not a generated paper or a single model checkpoint, but an auditable trajectory of proposals, code diffs, experiments, scores, and failure labels. We instantiate this loop with specialist agents that partition recipe surfaces and share measured lineage across trials. The central empirical finding is that lineage feedback lets agents turn evaluator outcomes, including crashes, budget overruns, size failures, and accuracy-gate misses, into later program-level recipe edits rather than one-shot suggestions. Across 1,197 headline-run trials plus 600 Parameter Golf control trials after one-time setup and launch, humans did not choose proposals, edit recipes, override scores, or repair failed trials during the search. In the three headline runs, the same submitted-trial loop reduces Parameter Golf validation bpb by $0.81\%$, raises NanoChat-D12 CORE by $38.7\%$, and reduces CIFAR-10 Airbench96 wallclock by $4.59\%$, with each task measured by its own external evaluator and legality checks. The trace includes a strict architecture-domain audit of 157 headline-run submissions and program rewrites such as a NanoChat attention-kernel path change. Within this scope the loop autonomously writes code, submits experiments, absorbs feedback, applies and combines known techniques inside each environment, and improves public starting recipes.

Recent auto-research systems can produce complete papers, but feasibility is not the same as quality, and the field still lacks a systematic study of how good agent-generated papers actually are. We introduce ResearchArena, a minimal scaffold that lets off-the-shelf agents (Claude Code using Opus 4.6, Codex using GPT-5.4, and Kimi Code using K2.5) carry out the full research loop themselves (ideation, experimentation, paper writing, self-refinement) under only lightweight guidance. Across 13 computer science seeds and 3 trials per agent-domain pair, ResearchArena yields 117 agent-generated papers, each evaluated under three complementary lenses: a manuscript-only reviewer (SAR), an artifact-aware peer review (PR) in which agents inspect the workspace alongside the manuscript, and an human conducted meta-review. Under SAR alone the picture is optimistic: Claude Code obtains the highest score, outperforms Analemma's FARS, and matches the weighted-average human ICLR 2025 submission, suggesting that minimally scaffolded agents can produce papers that look competitive on manuscript-only review. Manual inspection, however, reveals this picture is overstated: SAR scores are poorly aligned with its actual acceptance decisions and reward plausible framing without verifying experimental substance. Under artifact-aware PR scores drop sharply, and manual auditing identifies experimental rigor as the major bottleneck, decomposing into three failure modes (fabricated results, underpowered experiments, and plan/execution mismatch) that are highly agent-dependent: Codex 5%/8% paper-vs-artifact mismatch / fabricated references versus Kimi Code 77%/72%, a $\sim$15$\times$ spread that tracks distinct research personas the agents develop. None of the 117 agent-generated papers reaches the acceptance bar of a top-tier venue. This suggests that we are still gapped from the true auto-research.