Unsupervised Detection of Groundwater Storage Anomalies in Ghana Using GRACE Satellite Data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) integrates snow, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater and is a key indicator of how climate variability and human activity reshape the global water cycle. The GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions provide the only direct, globally consistent observations of TWS change, but their record only begins in 2002 which is too short for many climate-scale analyses. We present a deep learning application that reconstructs monthly GRACE-like TWS anomalies (TWSA) back to 1940 by learning the relationship between daily ERA5 meteorological forcing (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff) and monthly GRACE observations. In contrast to prior reconstruction approaches based on grid-cell-wise regression, CNNs, or LSTMs, we adapt a multi-variate time series graph neural network (MTGNN) architecture, which was originally developed for mobility and traffic forecasting on urban sensor networks to this satellite-geodesy task. Spatial dependencies are encoded in a static, interpretable hybrid adjacency matrix that combines geodesic proximity with lagged correlations of climatic time series, capturing both local hydrological coupling and large-scale teleconnections. The reconstruction achieves a grid-cell Pearson correlation of 0.69, a basin-mean correlation of 0.94, and a near-zero bias, and it reproduces the spatial fingerprints of the 2015/16 El Niño and 2020/21 La Niña events. A systematic comparison with established reconstruction approaches (GTWS-MLrec, RM-REC, GRAiCE) shows that the graph-based model is statistically competitive at basin scale, reaching a correlation within 0.025 of the best baseline while using only roughly half to a tenth of the predictors the other models require and revealing characteristic weaknesses in arid regions in all models. The complete implementation is publicly available at github.com/hcu-cml/MTGNN-TWS-Reconstruction-GRACE

A consensus anomaly detection framework was applied to monthly malaria surveillance data from Ghana (2014-2023) to identify atypical transmission patterns. Anomalies were highly structured in space and time. Ashanti and Northern Regions accounted for most recurrent anomalies, with persistent hotspots at Tamale, Kumasi, and Accra. A key finding was the spatial distinction between anomaly burden (cumulative cases during anomalous periods) and anomaly frequency (persistence of unusual behaviour). Tamale had the highest burden during anomalies, whereas the highest anomaly rates clustered in Ashanti districts, showing that high-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission. Anomalous months formed a statistically distinct group, with much higher case counts (Cohen's $d = 3.252$) and large seasonal deviations ($d > 1.2$) compared with normal months. Malaria burden alone provides an incomplete picture of transmission dynamics. By distinguishing where malaria is most prevalent from where transmission behaves most unusually, this framework can strengthen surveillance, prioritise investigations, and support targeted control strategies.

Soil contamination by heavy metals poses a persistent environmental and public health concern in rapidly urbanising regions of Ghana, particularly at unregulated waste disposal sites. This study applies an unsupervised machine learning framework to detect and characterise anomalous heavy metal contamination patterns in soils from twelve waste sites and residential controls in the Central Region, of Ghana. Concentrations of eight metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn) were analysed alongside standard health risk indices, including the Hazard Index (HI) and Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR). Isolation Forest and PCA reconstruction error each identified $12$ anomalous samples ($15.4\%$ of $78$ samples), while DBSCAN detected no density-isolated noise points. A consensus approach isolated six robust anomalies ($7.7\%)$, all spatially concentrated at a single site (S3). Anomalies exhibited approximately $70$--$80\%$ higher mean HI values than normal samples, with all consensus anomalies exceeding the HI$=1$ threshold. PCA reconstruction error showed a strong positive association with HI ($r \approx 0.8$), indicating consistency between multivariate deviation and health risk. Three distinct anomaly types were identified: extreme Cu enrichment at S3, anomalously low Ni at S4/S5, and moderate multi-metal (Pb--Zn) co-elevation at S9--S12. The results demonstrate that unsupervised machine learning provides granular, objective insight beyond aggregate indices, enabling targeted site prioritisation and risk-informed environmental management.