Diagnosis Before Recovery: Turning Agent Failures into Selective Self-Correction

Software engineering agents are increasingly deployed in evaluable engineering environments, yet post-failure recovery remains costly, manual, and ad hoc. Existing systems expose traces or generate follow-up feedback, but they do not convert heterogeneous runtime evidence into grounded, bounded recovery guidance for a subsequent attempt. We present PROBE, a failure-anchored framework for structured recovery in software engineering agents. PROBE organizes failed-run telemetry into structured evidence, structured diagnosis, and bounded recovery guidance through a Telemetry Layer, a Diagnosis Layer, and a Guidance Gate. The Telemetry Layer preserves fine-grained runtime signals, the Diagnosis Layer fuses cross-signal evidence into grounded diagnoses, and the Guidance Gate produces diagnosis-derived guidance only when it is evidence-grounded, actionable, and within the scope of agent-side behavior. We evaluate PROBE across three settings: repository-level software repair, enterprise workflow recovery, and AIOps service mitigation. On 257 initially unresolved cases, PROBE achieves 65.37% Top-1 diagnosis accuracy and a 21.79% recovery rate, outperforming the strongest non-PROBE baseline by 43.58 and 12.45 percentage points. The results reveal a diagnosis-recovery gap: accurate diagnosis is necessary but insufficient unless translated into bounded guidance that a subsequent attempt can execute and verify. Beyond controlled evaluation, a Microsoft IcM prototype shows that PROBE can attach as a non-intrusive side channel to existing service-diagnosis workflows without changing the agent policy, toolset, or execution budget. These results suggest that telemetry-grounded, failure-anchored recovery can improve post-failure recoverability under realistic engineering constraints.

When a structured tool agent fails mid-execution, the runtime faces a dilemma: replaying the entire task is safe but wasteful, while restoring from a local checkpoint is efficient but can leave committed downstream work tied to an upstream history that no longer exists. This tension is acute in commitment-sensitive settings, where rollback targets a single failed instance yet downstream consumers have already acted on its output. Existing recovery approaches provide mechanical rollback but no criterion for whether a local restore remains semantically valid after downstream commitment. We formalize this gap as semantic recoverability and address it in DART, a modular runtime that localizes the failed instance, certifies semantically recoverable boundaries of that instance, aligns checkpoints to those boundaries, and selects an admissible restore point that preserves committed downstream work under dependency and effect constraints-or blocks otherwise. Across three LLM-driven domains and external validation on a LangGraph-based substrate, DART correctly recovers all evaluated commitment-sensitive cases where baseline local recovery fails, and a five-domain safety audit finds no unsafe admitted rollbacks. These results show that controller legality does not imply semantic validity, and that sound local recovery requires an explicit admissibility check.

Agentic computer-use RL is reported in single runs, and those numbers mislead. Using verifier-guided repair of a 35B computer-use agent (CUA) across five oracle-graded environments, we show a repaired policy's success rate is dominated by upstream variance: a variance-components decomposition across three cells (crossed data-draw $\times$ seed grid, bootstrap CIs) finds evaluation variance negligible ($σ_{\mathrm{eval}} \approx 0$) and the training-seed effect small everywhere ($\leq 10\%$); instead it splits between the data draw and run-to-run nondeterminism, the data draw's share rising to dominant ($48\%$) on the hardest cell. There the run-to-run distribution is bimodal (Hartigan dip $p=0.07$, $k=10$), so a single run has roughly a 30% chance of the failure mode and mean$\pm$std is the wrong summary. On that footing, two findings hold. First, repairability is two-tier in how constrained the corrective action is: a single fixed token installs reliably (done-detection $0.97\pm0.06$), while open-ended corrections are only partial -- spatial-coordinate clicks (grounding $0.53\pm0.35$) and a generative field-fill ($0.14\pm0.04$). Second, the frame-level repair transfers to task success only when the corrective action is the task's sole remaining blocker (LinkedIn 8/20 vs. base 0/15, Fisher $p=0.006$). We caught two of our own over-claims -- a sample-efficiency curve and a 'grounding cannot be bought' boundary -- only by replicating across seeds; a stress test makes the stakes external: a single-run improvement of the size this field publishes would have the wrong sign roughly one-third of the time in a comparable regime. We release a library (cua_reliability) for routine k-seed reporting. The apparatus is, to our knowledge, the first multimodal segment-aggregated on-policy self-distillation (SA-OPSD) update on a real 35B CUA policy.