Amplified Does Not Mean Predictive: Reasoning Behaviors in Thinking Models

Language models (LMs) are commonly trained with Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) to enhance their reasoning capabilities. However, since RLVR does not explicitly account for calibration during training, it can lead to severe calibration degradation, including overconfidence. Recent calibration-aware training methods for LMs, which incorporate objectives for uncertainty estimation into training, improve calibration but still exhibit overconfidence under distribution shift, while sacrificing reasoning performance. To this end, we propose RL-ARC, a calibration-aware training framework that jointly leverages reasoning confidence and answer confidence. Specifically, RL-ARC leverages reasoning confidence as an auxiliary signal for calibrating answer confidence, applying it as reasoning-guided regularization for correct cases and as an overconfidence penalty for incorrect cases. Comprehensive results across ID and OOD settings show that, beyond improving calibration, RL-ARC enables reasoning models to adaptively estimate confidence based on the given question without substantially sacrificing reasoning performance, thereby highlighting the importance of reasoning confidence for training reliable reasoning models.

Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become central to LLM reasoning, but its outcome-level rewards can make models more willing to give confident answers when evidence or reasoning is unreliable. Existing SFT or RL methods mainly teach LLMs to refuse or express uncertainty at the response level, which can overfit abstention behavior rather than improve reasoning reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Cognitive Pairwise Training (CPT), a cognitive mid-training alignment stage that turns pairwise comparisons over reasoning traces into a reusable alignment signal. By learning to distinguish trustworthy from flawed reasoning, CPT encourages the model to internalize a reasoning-quality discrimination boundary rather than memorize surface refusal patterns. Across five model scales and three model families, CPT improves the reasoning--metacognition trade-off. At 14B, CPT+RL outperforms the standard SFT+RL pipeline by +2.2 math-average points and +5.2 abstention-F1 points. Further analyses show that CPT improves trace quality and exhibits strong robustness and scalability across evaluation and training settings. Code and models are released at https://github.com/Tsinghua-dhy/CPT.