Inference and Uncertainty Quantification for Streaming $r$-PCA

Streaming principal component analysis (PCA) seeks to recover a leading spectral subspace in a single pass over a data stream. We give a new analysis of the ubiquitous Oja's algorithm [Oja82] for the most general, gap-free variant of this problem, where no eigengap assumptions are made on the underlying mean matrix, complemented by a nearly-matching lower bound. Prior works achieving near-optimal rates for streaming PCA either required gap assumptions [JJK+16, HNWW21], or were limited to rank-one updates [AZL17, Lia23]. Our proof only uses a second moment bound on the individual stochastic updates, bypassing the almost sure bounds needed by prior near-optimal analyses, and the analogous offline matrix Bernstein bound. We also extend our result to a Rayleigh quotient notion of approximate PCA, addressing an open question of [JJK+16]. As our main application, we give gap-free differentially private PCA guarantees for sub-Gaussian data, settling Conjecture 1.1 of [Bro26] up to logarithmic factors.

Machine learning models process large amounts of data, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a widely used technique to reduce the dimensionality of the data and extract useful features. In practice, datasets often change over time (data drift) and/or arrive one sample at a time (streaming data), making it infeasible to process the entire dataset at once in batch mode. Real-world data also often contains nonlinear patterns, which traditional PCA cannot extract. Kernel PCA addresses this by implicitly mapping samples into a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). Raw data also often contains outliers, which can have an outsized effect on the estimated subspace unless the algorithm is made robust. However, existing online robust kernel PCA algorithms are designed to converge to a subspace that is assumed to be fixed, and gradient-descent-based updates lose their effectiveness at tracking further changes once this initial alignment is achieved. This paper introduces a rotation-based update mechanism, which updates the subspace estimate by rotating it toward each new incoming feature vector in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space, rather than relying on gradient descent alone. We present two complementary rotation strategies, and show that the extent of rotation can be moderated by a robust influence function to mitigate the effect of outliers. Through experiments on synthetic streaming data with a known ground-truth subspace, we show that per-sample rotations converge faster than gradient descent alone, demonstrating an effective mechanism for dynamically tracking a nonlinear subspace in streaming data.

Reliable decision-making with streaming data requires principled uncertainty quantification of online methods. While first-order methods enable efficient iterate updates, their inference procedures still require updating proper (covariance) matrices, incurring $O(d^2)$ time and memory complexity, and are sensitive to ill-conditioning and noise heterogeneity of the problem. This costly inference task offers an opportunity for more robust second-order methods, which are, however, bottlenecked by solving Newton systems with $O(d^3)$ complexity. In this paper, we address this gap by studying an online Newton method with Hessian averaging, where the Newton direction at each step is approximately computed using a sketch-and-project solver with Nesterov's acceleration, matching $O(d^2)$ complexity of first-order methods. For the proposed method, we quantify its uncertainty arising from both random data and randomized computation. Under standard smoothness and moment conditions, we establish global almost-sure convergence, prove asymptotic normality of the last iterate with a limiting covariance characterized by a Lyapunov equation, and develop a fully online covariance estimator with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. We also connect the resulting uncertainty quantification to that of exact and sketched Newton methods without Nesterov's acceleration. Extensive experiments on regression models demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for online inference.