SAGE-XGBoost: Spatially Augmented Graph Embeddings--Machine Learning Framework for Natural Hazards Susceptibility Mapping under Data Scarcity

Data-driven methods are widely used in landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) because they can effectively model the complex relationships between landslides and geo-environmental conditions. Existing data-driven approaches generally follow two types of data representations. Pixel-based models focus solely on the geo-environmental characteristics of a specific landslide but neglect the influence of its surrounding environment. Patch-based models incorporate surrounding spatial context but may include pixels with weak or no spatial relevance to the target landslide location. To address this limitation, this study proposes a Local-Geo and Spatial Context Fusion (LGSCF) strategy, which synergises the geo-environmental characteristics of landslide points with their corresponding spatial context through a feature-wise modulation mechanism. We tested the LGSCF strategy by integrating it into several representative convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures, creating nine different LGSCF-based models. The primary study area covers approximately 2644 km2 across Jenai and Sinyi Townships in Nantou County, Taiwan, and the dataset comprises 5332 landslide samples and an equal number of non-landslide samples. The results show that LGSCF-based models consistently outperform their corresponding baselines, achieving F1-scores up to 87.09% and AUC values up to 0.9472. Furthermore, the susceptibility maps produced by LGSCF-based models show that known landslides are more accurately concentrated in "very high" susceptibility zones with fewer misclassifications. These findings demonstrate that our fusion strategy can significantly improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility mapping.

Wildfire susceptibility mapping typically relies on physical variables assembled from multiple remote-sensing, climate, and geospatial products. AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) provides analysis-ready geospatial embeddings that may reduce this dependence on heavy harmonisation and task-specific feature engineering, but their value for wildfire susceptibility mapping has not been systematically evaluated. Using Victoria, Australia (2017-2025), as a case study, we show that AEF embeddings can reconstruct commonly used variables in wildfire susceptibility analysis with high accuracy. In downstream susceptibility models trained on satellite-derived fire occurrence data, embedding-based susceptibility models achieve ROC-AUC values above 0.92 and consistently identify high wildfire susceptibility across eastern Victoria, particularly Gippsland and the north-eastern uplands, with additional localized hotspots in central and northwestern Victoria. A key feature of AEF embeddings is their strong near-region transferability within climatically similar regions. When embedding-based models trained in Victoria are applied to Canberra and Western Sydney-Blue Mountains, ROC-AUC improves by around 4% at Canberra and declines by around 2% at Western Sydney-Blue Mountains, compared with a mean decrease of approximately 25% for physical-variable models. These findings provide practical guidance for using AEF embeddings and lay a foundation for scalable wildfire susceptibility mapping workflows for downstream users such as government agencies and (re)insurers.

Data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) typically relies on landslide conditioning factors (LCFs), whose availability, heterogeneity, and preprocessing-related uncertainties can constrain mapping reliability. Recently, Google AlphaEarth (AE) embeddings, derived from multi-source geospatial observations, have emerged as a unified representation of Earth surface conditions. This study evaluated the potential of AE embeddings as alternative predictors for LSM. Two AE representations, including retained principal components and the full set of 64 embedding bands, were systematically compared with conventional LCFs across three study areas (Nantou County, Taiwan; Hong Kong; and part of Emilia-Romagna, Italy) using three deep learning models (CNN1D, CNN2D, and Vision Transformer). Performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics, ROC-AUC analysis, error statistics, and spatial pattern assessment. Results showed that AE-based models consistently outperformed LCFs across all regions and models, yielding higher F1-scores, AUC values, and more stable error distributions. Such improvement was most pronounced when using the full 64-band AE representation, with F1-score improvements of approximately 4% to 15% and AUC increased ranging from 0.04 to 0.11, depending on the study area and model. AE-based susceptibility maps also exhibited clearer spatial correspondence with observed landslide occurrences and enhanced sensitivity to localised landslide-prone conditions. Performance improvements were more evident in Nantou and Emilia than in Hong Kong. SHAP analysis further revealed regional variability in the contribution of individual AE bands, while several bands showed consistently high importance across all three study areas. These findings highlight the strong potential of AE embeddings as a standardised and information-rich alternative to conventional LCFs for LSM.