Latent Ordinal Evidence, Misaligned Outputs: Inference-Time Ordinal Lens Alignment for Multimodal LLMs

A large language model (LLM) can turn a text into a distribution over an ordered scale, but that distribution is a noisy measurement: saturated, compressed or exaggerated, and biased in a consistent direction. We propose CORDIAL, which treats the model's output as a noisy reading of the true label and corrects it with a channel of five interpretable parameters. The channel is small enough for its posterior to be averaged from a handful of labels, and we prove that the resulting calibration preserves first-order stochastic order. On Amazon reviews and CMU-MOSEI transcripts with four LLMs, CORDIAL has the lowest log loss among nine calibrators in 76 of 80 settings with 5 to 100 labels; with 20 labels and the main 7B reader, it matches the strongest baseline using 28-54 labels. The same posterior lets us learn priors from other tasks and fuse several LLMs. Unrestricted calibrators such as Dirichlet calibration overtake it only as the calibration set grows into the hundreds or thousands.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced across multimodal benchmarks but still show clear gaps in ordinal number understanding, i.e., the ability to track relative positions and generalize to large indices. We present OrdinalBench, a diagnostic benchmark that standardizes ordinal number understanding as an evaluation task for VLMs. The core task is N-th object identification, defined by a starting reference and traversal rule. Task difficulty is controlled along three axes: (i) ordinal magnitude, from small numbers to extreme cases up to 300; (ii) arrangement complexity, from single loops to maze-like paths; and (iii) object count. The benchmark provides 39,000 question-answer pairs, each annotated with a ground-truth reasoning trajectory and balanced across difficulty levels for controlled large-scale testing. Beyond answer-only evaluation, our framework requires models to generate structured stepwise traces of the counting process and provides an open evaluation toolkit that measures both final accuracy and step-level path consistency. Zero-shot evaluations of GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite, Qwen2.5-VL, InternVL3.5, and Molmo reveal sharp degradation under large-ordinal and complex-path conditions, highlighting weak generalization despite strong scores on standard multimodal tasks. By framing ordinal number understanding as a core target, OrdinalBench provides a reproducible benchmark and diagnostic framework for developing VLMs with stronger sequential reasoning. All data and code are available at https://ordinalbench.github.io/

Standard benchmarks for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) score each item on one canonical ordering and miss whether order-irrelevant shuffling changes the answer, a baseline reliability property called for by emerging AI evaluation guidelines. We introduce Facet-Probe, a five-facet audit (option, evidence-chunk, document-rank, image-set, and mixed-modality ordering) of 18 frontier and open-weight MLLMs. A Bayesian item-response model separates ordering noise from per-facet bias, and a same-ordering control estimates the decoder-stochastic floor for observed flips. We find that none of the 18 MLLMs we audit are order-invariant: screened per-facet panel-mean flip rates span 24-50%. A Gemini same-ordering control at temperature 0 estimates a substantial ordering excess over a same-input decoder-noise floor in verified cells. Capability predicts but does not eliminate flips; the best model still flips on 13.4% of trials. In our Gemini mitigation tests, training-free prompt changes are modality-conditional and do not transfer from text to visual reasoning. These results suggest that prompt-level mitigation alone is unlikely to provide general order robustness, motivating future work on training-time and architectural approaches. We propose cross-ordering flip rate as a standard reporting axis for MLLMs.