Gaussian process learning with flow map refinement for parameter estimation in dynamical systems

In this paper, we propose Lagrangian Gaussian Processes (LGPs) for probabilistic and data-efficient learning of dynamics via discrete forced Euler-Lagrange equations. Importantly, the geometric structure of the Lagrange-d'Alembert principle, which governs the motion of dynamical systems, is preserved by construction in the absence of external forces. This allows learning physically consistent models that overcome erroneous drift in the system's energy, thereby providing stable long-term predictions. At the core of our approach lie linear operators for Gaussian process conditioning, constructed from discrete forced Euler-Lagrange equations and variational discretization schemes. Thereby and unlike prior work, the method enables learning dynamics from discrete position snapshots, i.e., without access to a system's velocities or momenta. This is particularly relevant for a large class of practical scenarios where only position measurements are available, for instance, in motion capture or visual servoing applications. We demonstrate the data-efficiency and generalization capabilities of the LGPs in various synthetic and real-world case studies, including a real-world soft robot with hysteresis. The experimental results underscore that the LGPs learn physically consistent dynamics with uncertainty quantification solely from sparse positional data and enable stable long-term predictions.

Outside the linear-Gaussian regime, conditional sampling from Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging. Recent methods such as FlowGP (Moss et al., (2026)) can condition on arbitrary non-linear and non-Gaussian statements, but at considerable cost: an expensive iterative and high-dimensional diffusion that requires hand-specified kernel hyperparameters. In this paper, we alleviate two significant drawbacks of FlowGP by (1) introducing kernel approximations that enable scaling to high-resolution domains and (2) proposing a way to obtain the marginal likelihood by measuring the work needed to steer the diffusion towards conditioning statements. We enable, for the first time, hyperparameter optimisation within FlowGP and demonstrate our approach on probabilistic downscaling from areal summary statistics, PDE solution inference on irregular domains, and recovery of sea level anomaly fields from non-Gaussian satellite observations.

Simulation-free training of latent Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) relies on a variational posterior process whose one-time marginals are tractable, typically Gaussian. Such marginals, however, do not determine the underlying dynamics: many processes share the same marginals while differing in their temporal structure, and existing parameterizations fix this structure implicitly, which restricts the posterior family and biases the learned model. We introduce Gaussian flow dynamics, which construct stochastic processes directly from smoothly evolving Gaussian marginals while making the marginal-preserving, or gauge, degrees of freedom explicit and parameterizable. The construction admits state-dependent diffusion coefficients and recovers every linear SDE with additive noise and a non-degenerate Gaussian initial distribution. Building on it, we propose Gauge Matching, a simulation-free method for latent SDE learning that combines Gaussian flow dynamics with the SDE Matching objective. Gauge Matching costs at most quadratically in the latent dimension per step, like SDE Matching, but learns the temporal structure of the posterior beyond its one-time marginals. It comes within a nat of Helmholtz-SDE, which computes the gauge from the prior Jacobian at cubic cost, on the linear benchmark where the exact posterior is known, matches it on nonlinear systems, and applies where Helmholtz-SDE does not, to state-dependent noise.