Terrain signatures in Welsh settlement names
Organizations: Department of Computer Science and Informatics, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF24 4AG, UK · Department of Computer Engineering, Turkish Air Force Academy, National Defence University, Istanbul 34149, Türkiye
Abstract
Landscapes are named, but whether names retain measurable environmental information beyond broad geographic structure is rarely tested. We analysed 3,757 Welsh settlements using a frozen, source-audited 24-element lexical framework, preregistered outcome-specific models and geographically structured validation. The central comparison contrasted 101 settlements carrying high-terrain elements (bryn or mynydd) with 139 carrying low-terrain elements (cwm or pant). High-terrain names occupied locations 24.4 m higher relative to their 2-km surroundings (95% CI, 10.8--38.1 m; Holm-adjusted = 0.00137). The association remained positive across prespecified 1-, 2- and 5-km neighbourhood definitions and was reproduced using an independently produced elevation source (24.1 m; 95% CI, 10.6--37.6 m). Adding terrain-name polarity to a non-lexical spatial and settlement baseline reduced geographically held-out mean squared error by 4.63%, 6.22% and 7.30% under 10-, 25- and 50-km spatial blocking, respectively, although improvement varied among held-out regions. River-related names provided weaker, directionally consistent evidence, while the preregistered woodland model was non-estimable. Residual spatial structure, unresolved name language and the absence of independent external replication limit interpretation. Selected Welsh settlement-name categories therefore retain measurable information about present-day terrain within Wales, without establishing individual etymology, causal naming, historical environmental memory or transferability to other naming systems.
Figures & tables
| Panel A | Effect-estimate robustness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analysis | Adjusted effect (m) | 95% CI (m) | Raw | |
| OS Terrain 50, 1 km | 240 | +19.23 | 10.57 to 27.90 | |
| Primary OS Terrain 50, 2 km | 240 | +24.43 | 10.77 to 38.08 | 0.000456 |
| OS Terrain 50, 5 km | 240 | +25.89 | 7.56 to 44.22 | 0.00563 |
| Copernicus GLO-90, 2 km | 240 | +24.07 | 10.59 to 37.56 | 0.000466 |
| One record per normalised name | 197 | +21.25 | 4.54 to 37.97 | 0.0127 |
| Hypothesis | Lexical contrast | Outcome | (groups) | Adjusted effect (95% CI) | Raw | Holm | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | afon / nant vs other eligible settlements | 3,757 (49/3,708) | ( to ) | 0.0142 | 0.0284 | Direction agrees with H1 | |
| H2 | bryn / mynydd vs cwm / pant | 2-km local terrain position | 240 (101/139) | +24.43 m (10.77 to 38.08) | 0.000456 | 0.00137 | Direction agrees with H2 |
| H3 | coed / llwyn vs other eligible settlements | 1-km woody-cover fraction | 2,366 (43/2,323) | Not estimable | — | 1.000 † | Model did not converge |