When Interference Graphs Evolve: Doubly Robust Estimation of Dynamic Peer Effects

Evaluating network interventions requires understanding how treatment affects people through their social relationships. Counting treated neighbors without distinguishing supportive and antagonistic ties can conceal opposing influences. We define effects through positive and negative ties, their interaction, and a sign-composition effect of reallocating treatment between the two types at a fixed total, and give their identification formulas. Under sign-blind assignment, we show how ignoring signs mixes the effects of the two tie types. We propose SiDE (Signed-exposure Doubly robust Estimator), which combines sign-specific outcome models with exposure probabilities induced by individual treatment assignment. We establish double robustness of its score and assess approximate intervals that account for overlapping neighborhoods. Semi-synthetic experiments on six real signed networks demonstrate accurate effect estimation and examine the limits of interval coverage. An exploratory reanalysis of published school-experiment data yields a positive estimate of the peer effect through spend-time ties on wristband wearing, but the intervals for all four effects include zero after adjustment for multiple comparisons. This framework can inform network intervention design by showing when influences through the two tie types reinforce or offset one another.

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational graph data is crucial for decision-making in the fields such as commerce and medicine. This task is challenging due to interference, where individual outcomes can be influenced by the treatments and covariates of their neighbors. Existing methods attempt to model such interference for accurate ITE estimation. However, a critical issue is often overlooked: differentiated networked effect (DNE), an effect caused by local networks consisting of neighbors with varying importance and scales. Capturing DNE is vital; otherwise, we will end up with imprecise ITE estimation due to an erroneous characterization of interference, which can result in misguided decisions. To address this challenge, we propose a novel interference modeling mechanism that incorporates two partial attention mechanisms and a message amplifier. The partial attention mechanisms automatically estimate the importance of different neighbors in contributing to interference, while the message amplifier adjusts the results of the interference modeling mechanism based on the scale of neighbors, all of which enables the model to capture DNE. Experiments on three real-world graphs demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches for ITE estimation from graph data, which corroborates the importance of explicitly capturing DNE.

We propose a novel doubly robust neural mean-embedding framework for proxy causal learning (PCL) for continuous and structured treatments. PCL uses proxy variables and bridge functions to identify causal effects under unobserved confounding: either an outcome bridge or a treatment bridge can identify the target, while doubly robust methods combine both. Our framework learns both bridges with data-adaptive neural features and combines them into doubly robust estimators of population, treatment-conditional, and heterogeneous dose-response functions. Two features of our result are particularly notable: the treatment bridge can be learned without density ratios, and the same treatment bridge yields both population and heterogeneous responses, eliminating the need for a separate bridge fit. Our analysis shows that the doubly robust error is controlled by final-stage error and the smaller of the two projected bridge errors, with no separate density-ratio estimation error. Across challenging continuous- and structured-treatment benchmarks, our method outperforms neural single-bridge estimators and fixed-feature doubly robust estimators. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/BariscanBozkurt/DoublyRobust-PCL-Network.