Predicting Turn-Taking Outcomes in Multi-Party Conversation: Interpretable Modelling of Speech and Gaze Dynamics with Interpersonal Closeness

Full-duplex speech systems must decide when to enter, hold, or relinquish the conversational floor, even as multiple speakers overlap or backchannel without taking it. Existing evaluations study dyadic turn-taking or end-to-end agent behavior, but lack a unified, controlled evaluation of genuine floor transitions against confusable non-events in multi-party settings. We introduce MultiPartyTurnBench (MPTB), a benchmark of 240 synthetically generated, channel-separated conversations spanning two to five speakers and six interaction types. MPTB evaluates two complementary tasks: End-of-Turn (EOT) detection distinguishes genuine turn completion from temporary holds, while Interruption (INT) detection distinguishes successful floor takeovers from non-floor-taking speech. Exact event-conditioned annotations enable causal evaluation using false-positive-constrained recall and signed latency. Across acoustic, semantic, and turn-projection baselines, we find a stark asymmetry: learned systems achieve 82.5-92.6% EOT recall at 4.3-11.8% false-positive rates, while INT detection suffers from missed takeovers or excessive false activations. This asymmetry extends to five full-duplex agents which achieve 86.1-95.8% balanced accuracy on turn entry, yet perform near chance (46.9-54.7%) on selective interruption handling. Gemini-3.8-Live yields to 97.7% of backchannels, whereas MiniCPM-o-4.5 yields to only 1.4% of genuine interruptions. These findings establish selective floor control as a distinct, unresolved challenge for reliable multi-party voice interaction.

Turn-taking is a fundamental component of spoken interaction, and while humans naturally rely on both verbal and non-verbal signals, dialogue systems usually depend on audio cues alone. This paper investigates whether visual features from face-to-face conversations can enhance turn-taking prediction beyond what is achievable from audio-only. We extend the Voice Activity Projection (VAP) model, a self-supervised transformer-based model for predicting future voice activity, by incorporating visual features extracted from the large-scale Meta Seamless Interaction dataset of dyadic face-to-face conversations. The visual features include gaze direction, head movement, body and hand pose, and facial action units (FAU). For incorporating the visual features, we explore concatenation, cross-attention fusion, delta features, and trainable gating mechanisms. Results show that visual information improves performance over the audio-only baseline, with FAU being significantly more informative than other feature groups. Body and gaze features nevertheless contribute complementary information, as the model combining all features performs best. Furthermore, results indicate that performance on specific tasks varies depending on whether training and test data come from improvised (acted) or naturalistic (non-acted) conversations.

Turn-taking is a basic organizational feature of human conversation and remains difficult to model in natural, synchronous dialog systems. While existing research has explored multimodal approaches and large language models for turn-ending prediction, there is a lack of naturalistic conversational corpora specifically addressing turn-taking dynamics in Turkish. This study introduces a multimodal Turkish conversational dataset of unscripted dyadic interactions, comprising synchronized front-facing video, per-speaker audio channels that allow overlapping speech to be attributed to individual speakers, and time-aligned transcriptions. Turn-taking prediction is formulated as a binary classification problem, and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is employed to optimize interpretable decision rules derived from visual, acoustic, and linguistic features. A hybrid AND-OR rule representation is adopted in the proposed framework to represent the alternative cue combinations that precede a turn transition.