Pooling and Drift in Delayed Bandits

Increasingly, recommender systems are tasked with improving users' long-term satisfaction. In this context, we study a content exploration task, which we formalize as a bandit problem with delayed rewards. There is an apparent trade-off in choosing the learning signal: waiting for the full reward to become available might take several weeks, slowing the rate of learning, whereas using short-term proxy rewards reflects the actual long-term goal only imperfectly. First, we develop a predictive model of delayed rewards that incorporates all information obtained to date. Rewards as well as shorter-term surrogate outcomes are combined through a Bayesian filter to obtain a probabilistic belief. Second, we devise a bandit algorithm that quickly learns to identify content aligned with long-term success using this new predictive model. We prove a regret bound for our algorithm that depends on the Value of Progressive Feedback, an information-theoretic metric that captures the quality of short-term leading indicators that are observed prior to the long-term reward. We apply our approach to a podcast recommendation problem, where we seek to recommend shows that users engage with repeatedly over two months. We empirically validate that our approach significantly outperforms methods that optimize for short-term proxies or rely solely on delayed rewards, as demonstrated by an A/B test in a recommendation system that serves hundreds of millions of users.

We study stochastic linear bandits with delayed feedback under several delay models and establish near-optimal regret guarantees. Our results identify when delayed linear bandits exhibit the same qualitative behavior as multi-armed bandits (MAB), and when the linear structure creates fundamentally new challenges. Specifically, (1) for \emph{loss-independent delays}, where the delay does not depend on the realized loss (but potentially depends on the arm), we show that delays incur only an additive regret penalty. Under stochastic delays, this penalty scales with the expected delay, while under adversarial delays, it scales with the maximum number of outstanding observations. Notably, both delay penalties are dimension-free, improving upon the state-of-the-art results; (2) for \emph{loss-dependent delays}, we show that linear bandits are substantially harder than MAB: unlike in MAB, we prove matching (up to log factors) upper and lower bounds in linear bandits, whose delay penalty depends on the square root of the dimension. (3) for the \emph{delay-as-payoff model}, a special case of loss-dependent delay, we show that the optimal MAB guarantee, which depends only on the delay of the optimal arm, is also unattainable in linear bandits. Together, these results provide a sharp characterization of how delayed feedback interacts with linear generalization.

We study stochastic linear contextual bandits with arbitrary action menus that may depend on the fixed parameter and the interaction history. We establish matching upper and lower bounds, up to logarithmic factors. Let $d$ be the dimension, $K$ be the menu size, and $T$ the time horizon. For $2\le K\le d$, we prove an upper bound $\widetilde O(K^{1/4}\sqrt{dT})$. When $T\ge d^2$, we further prove a lower bound $Ω(K^{1/4}\sqrt{dT})$. Thus, for $T\ge d^2$ and $2\le K\le d$, the upper and lower bounds match up to logarithmic factors, and the polynomial dependence on $K$ is optimal. Compared with the previous $\widetilde O(\sqrt{dKT})$ bound, our upper bound improves the dependence on $K$ by a factor of $K^{1/4}$. For $K\ge d$, we prove an upper bound $\widetilde O_{d,T}\left(\sqrt{dT}\min\{\sqrt d,(d\log K)^{1/4}\}\right)$ and a lower bound $Ω\left(\sqrt{dT}\min\left\{\sqrt d,\left(\frac{d\log K}{\log(2d)}\right)^{1/4}\right\}\right)$. Here, $\widetilde O_{d,T}$ omits logarithmic factors only in $d$ and $T$. In particular, for polynomially large $K\ge d$, the upper and lower bounds both scale as $d^{3/4}\sqrt T$ up to logarithmic factors, improving the standard $\widetilde O(d\sqrt T)$ rate by a factor of $d^{1/4}$. As $K$ grows further, the regret smoothly recovers the $d\sqrt T$ scale once $\log K$ reaches order $d$.