OutageDiT: A Generative Foundation Model for Power Outage Forecasting and Scenario Simulation
Authors: Yunqin Zhu, Feng Qiu, Yao Xie
Organizations: H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology · Argonne National Laboratory
Abstract
Power-outage planning requires scenarios before an event occurs. These scenarios must represent uncertainty in magnitude, timing, and duration while preserving temporal dependence. However, severe events are rare, and data from any single region contain few examples of extreme outage and restoration patterns. To address this challenge, we introduce OutageDiT, a foundation model for generating seven-day outage trajectories at quarter-hour resolution, trained on outage and weather records across the United States. Specifically, a condition encoder processes the historical context and known future covariates once per forecast, and a shallow flow decoder reuses the resulting horizon-aligned states to generate complete trajectories. The resulting samples support point forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and conditional event simulation within one deep generative model. Across outage forecasting benchmarks, OutageDiT improves forecast accuracy and scenario quality over strong baselines and supports zero-shot transfer to held-out regions. Together, these results position conditional outage simulation as a bridge from outage forecasting to operational planning under uncertainty.
Recent large language models (LLMs) are good at general text generation, but it is still hard to use them for domain-specific data generation because the output must follow strict formatting and structural rules. Unlike open-ended tasks such as question answering or translation, domain-specific generation must be both semantically correct and compliant with existing guidelines and standards. In this work, we study the nationwide interoperability problem of utility power outage reports in the United States. In practice, outage reports need to be machine-readable (e.g., JSON or XML) and must strictly follow requirements from energy-sector regulatory bodies. To address this problem, we propose POTracker, an optimized LLM for power outage report generation. We fine-tune Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct using our proposed objective. The key contribution is a new loss function, POTrackerLoss, that considers both textual similarity and structural (tag) similarity between the generated report and the ground-truth report. We evaluate POTracker on a dataset of 1,000 power outage reports and compare it with five well-known fine-tuning methods and one rule-based XML conversion method. Results show that POTracker outperforms other fine-tuning approaches, improving overall accuracy by up to 51% and reaching 86.47% structural accuracy for generated power outage reports. In addition, we conduct a human study to assess the quality of the ground-truth standard reports, where domain experts assign the generated labels an average score of 4.03 on a 0--5 scale.
Utilities publish Estimated Times of Restoration (ETRs) for customer-facing storm outages, and their accuracy governs whether customers can make sound decisions about food, medical equipment, and relocation. Prior work treats ETR as static tabular regression in which each outage contributes one record, discarding the fact that every development of an outage, from crew assignment through dispatch, suspension, damage assessment and partial restoration, is recorded as a revision. We reformulate ETR prediction as longitudinal tabular regression and introduce a Longitudinal Tabular Transformer (LTT), an axial-attention model that consumes the revisions preceding a prediction and issues a refined estimate at every one. On 242{,}928 storm-attributed outages from a cohort of 526{,}468 filtered events and 10.0 million revisions at six operating companies, LTT reduces customer-weighted asymmetric error at all six, by a median of 36.9,% against the estimates the utilities published during the same storms and 11.3,% against the strongest learned baseline at each. It is the only method improving on the incumbent's satisfaction impact at all six companies while also reducing root mean squared error at all six. Stratification by revision index shows that LTT error is largest at the first revision, where no history is available, and falls monotonically as revisions accumulate.
Bogireddy Sai Prasanna Teja, Valliappan Muthukaruppan, Carls Benjamin
Predicting storm surge induced by landfalling tropical cyclones is crucial for flood mitigation and coastal risk management. Traditionally, physics-based numerical models simulate storm surge by solving the Navier--Stokes equations using numerical methods, but these simulations are computationally expensive. Generative models are promising for storm surge emulation because they can generate diverse realizations rather than producing a single deterministic prediction. However, their use for storm surge emulation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage diffusion models for storm surge surrogate modeling, combining a baseline prediction stage with conditional generation to provide a more interpretable modeling framework. We develop SurgeGen, a two-stage generative framework for generating storm surge scenarios conditioned on hypothetical storms with parameters defined in a continuous space. First, a baseline model produces a coarse estimate of the storm surge height. This estimate then conditions a diffusion model, which generates refined storm surge scenarios that better capture spatial patterns and variability. We demonstrate that our approach can generate realistic and diverse storm surge scenarios under conditions both within and outside the training distribution.