Forecasting time series accurately is critical for applications with complex data ranging from energy systems to healthcare and finance. Among current state of the art models, generative latent variable models are increasingly implemented; yet principled generalisation guarantees for modern latent variable models remain limited. In particular, while Variational AutoEncoders are widely used for sequential data, their theoretical analysis is largely restricted to i.i.d. settings. In this work, we develop a PAC-Bayesian framework for latent variables models applied to time series. Building on reconstruction-based bounds, we extend PAC-Bayesian guarantees to Markovian latent structures, capturing temporal dependencies through a sequential generative process. These guarantees do not grow with the length of the trajectory. Our bounds depend on assumptions which are common in the literature; we provide an example framework where they would be verified to show that they are not as restrictive as they may seem.
Neural Koopman autoencoder models have been shown to successfully build a latent embedding with linear dynamics for arbitrary dynamical systems, enabling strong performance in long-term time series forecasting. However, these models usually work in a deterministic setting, which does not allow the quantification of the uncertainty of their predictions. Thus, we propose the new Variational Augmented Invertible Koopman AutoEncoder (VAIKAE), in which the latent embedding follows a Gaussian distribution instead of being deterministic. A key property of the VAIKAE architecture is that it leverages normalizing flow models, enabling the use of likelihood computations in the state space of dynamical systems for training a model. We further propose new strategies for uncertainty-aware latent data assimilation with a trained VAIKAE model. The effectiveness of our methods is demonstrated in a series of experiments on long-term time series forecasting benchmarks.
Anthony Frion, Lucas Drumetz, Guillaume Tochon +3
Institute of coastal modelling Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon · IMT Atlantique Lab-STICC, UMR CNRS 6285, Brest, France · LRE EPITA, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France +1
We present Empirical Variational Autoencoder, a general generative framework for continuous-valued (i.e., non-vector-quantized) sequences. EVA is based on the evidence lower bound of the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) but learns autoregressive latent priors empirically from training data, which can be implemented only by an additional single linear layer on top of VAEs. By replacing the conventional standard-Gaussian constraint with the self-predicted priors, EVA significantly alleviates the latent distribution gap between prior and posterior which is typically observed in conventional VAEs, and leads to high-fidelity ancestral sampling for sequential data generation. Extensive experiments on image and sound synthesis demonstrate that EVA achieves competitive generation quality with autoregressive diffusion baselines despite its much faster inference time.
Predicting customers' long-term revenue from sparse and irregular transaction data is central to marketing resource allocation in non-contractual settings, yet existing approaches face a trade-off. Traditional probabilistic customer base models deliver robust long-horizon forecasts by imposing strong structural assumptions, while flexible machine-learning models often require substantial training data and careful tuning. We propose a variational-autoencoder-based model that preserves the process-based likelihood of established attrition-transaction-spend models conditional on customer heterogeneity, but replaces the restrictive parametric mixing distribution with a flexible latent representation learned by encoder-decoder networks. The resulting approach (i) provides a single model for customer attrition, transactions and spending, (ii) remains reliable when contextual covariates are unavailable, and (iii) flexibly incorporates rich covariates and nonlinear effects when they are available. This design balances structural stability with the flexibility needed to capture complex purchase dynamics. Across multiple real-world datasets and prediction horizons, the proposed model improves upon the latest benchmarks. Businesses benefit directly, as a better assessment of customers' future revenues improves the efficiency of campaign targeting. For research, this work provides guidance on how to embed domain-specific models into the variational autoencoder framework, enabling flexible representation learning while retaining an econometrically meaningful process structure.
Jeffrey Näf, Riana Valera Mbelson, Markus Meierer
Research Institute for Statistics and Information Science, University of Geneva · Institute of Management, University of Geneva