We study offline inference for the optimal value in reinforcement learning under finite state and action spaces. Two new nuisances are derived as fixed points of a self-induced Bellman equation, in which we approximate the maximum Bellman operator by its softmax correspondence. We propose a debiased estimator through the Neyman orthogonality and establish its asymptotic normality under diverging horizons even when the behavior policy changes with time, as long as the nuisances have the statistical rates that can be achieved by many machine learning methods. We provide a concrete estimating procedure for these nuisances and show they can lead to valid inference. Synthetic experiments validate the numerical performance of our inference method, and we implement it in real-life decision-making problems, including bike repositioning and AI agentic tool use.
Standard offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms typically assume that the actions in the dataset are observed without error. However, in many real-world applications, the true actions are unobserved and only noisy proxies are available, causing existing RL methods to yield biased and potentially misleading conclusions. We study off-policy evaluation in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes with hidden actions. By leveraging the next-state variable as a natural proxy for the unobserved action, we establish identification of the policy value and propose an influence-function-based estimator called LURE (Learning from the Unseen: Robust Estimator). LURE is multiply robust, remaining consistent under several combinations of correctly specified nuisance components, and is asymptotically normal, enabling valid statistical inference. To our knowledge, this is the first work to address offline RL with hidden actions. We demonstrate LURE's effectiveness through simulations and a sepsis management application using the MIMIC-III database.
Offline RL (ORL) promises safe and sample-efficient deployment but existing methods rely on undocumented online interactions for hyperparameter tuning and lack reliable fully offline estimates of initial online performance. We introduce SOReL, a fully offline Bayesian model-based RL method that learns a posterior over dynamics, estimates policy value via predictive uncertainty, and enables complete offline hyperparameter selection. We further propose TOReL, which extends this tuning framework to arbitrary model-free and model-based ORL algorithms. We provide a regret analysis showing that Bayesian offline RL achieves the minimax-optimal parametric rate under standard regularity conditions. Together, our methods establish a practical and theoretically grounded framework for fully offline RL.
Learning accurate value functions plays a decisive role for reinforcement learning (RL) agents to solve long-horizon, complex tasks. Conventional temporal-difference (TD) learning objectives suffer from value-estimation bias that accumulates over the horizon, while extended-horizon modeling methods, such as n-step TD backups and Q-chunking, adopt a rigid, fixed-horizon value-modeling recipe that is often not flexible enough to capture complex value structures in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks. In this paper, we show that enabling value updates with dynamic horizon composition can yield a strong offline policy learning scheme. Our method, Horizon Adaptive Offline Policy Learning via VAlue STitching (VAST), replaces fixed-horizon backups with recursive, horizon-adaptive value composition. Its key ingredient is to couple value optimization with a future state- and horizon-length-conditioned auxiliary value function that is learned through direct data supervision, and a stitching policy that optimally selects the reward-maximizing horizon length and future sub-goal to achieve horizon-adaptive value stitching. This design enables direct estimation and compositional "stitching" of variable-length returns grounded in actionable sub-goal states, providing an accurate and greedily exploitable value-supervision signal for offline policy optimization. Across 50 tasks on OGBench, VAST outperforms fixed-step, extended-horizon methods, and generative-value offline RL baselines, achieving strong performance particularly in high-complexity, long-horizon decision-making tasks.