An Explainable Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability Using Molecular Descriptors

Blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBP) prediction is a critical screening task in central nervous system drug discovery, where candidate molecules must be assessed for whether they can cross, or should be prevented from crossing, the blood-brain barrier. However, this task remains challenging because of limited, class-imbalanced datasets and sensitivity to molecular structure. Recent advances in deep learning have established graph neural networks (GNNs) as a powerful approach for molecular representation learning, while pre-trained molecular GNNs provide transferable knowledge for downstream tasks. However, full fine-tuning is often parameter-inefficient and prone to overfitting, whereas existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods mainly adapt node features or the two-dimensional covalent graph, limiting their ability to capture three-dimensional geometry and second-order interactions. To address these limitations, we propose BBBP-GeoPEFT, a geometry-informed PEFT framework for pre-trained molecular GNNs. BBBP-GeoPEFT constructs distance-based graphs at multiple cutoffs and their corresponding line graphs from molecular conformers to capture spatial atom and second-order edge interactions. Lightweight auxiliary geometric graph encoders generate cutoff-specific representations, which are incorporated into each pre-trained layer through node-wise cutoff attention and gated residual connections. This design preserves pre-trained knowledge while incorporating permeability-relevant geometric information with a small trainable-parameter budget. Experiments on a curated BBBP dataset show that BBBP-GeoPEFT achieves competitive performance compared with full fine-tuning and representative PEFT baselines. Under both random and scaffold splitting, BBBP-GeoPEFT achieves competitive or improved ROC-AUC and accuracy in most experiments while updating only 10.1% of the model parameters.

We present a unique, multitask dataset comprising 143 drug and drug candidate molecules, each evaluated on in vitro, parallel artificial-membrane permeability assays (PAMPA) using six different model membranes. Using this resource, we systematically assess the effectiveness of various molecular descriptors and regression models in predicting passive membrane permeability. The studied models range from simple linear regression to a modern pre-trained transformer architecture. Particular attention is given to the trade-off between predictive performance and model interpretability, highlighting the challenges introduced by machine learning approaches. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive study on simultaneous modeling of multiple organ-specific PAMPA membranes to date, offering novel insights into membrane-specific permeability profiles. We found that expert-designed physico-chemical property descriptors are more fitting for a limited sample size permeabilty study than deep learning based representations.

Fundamental investigations into how different molecular encoding methods affect molecular property prediction remain relatively limited. In this study, we extensively examined the optimal molecular encoding methods for molecular properties prediction using two prevalent structure designs: a classical neural network model (MLP) and a Transformer encoder-based model (MLP+TL). For molecular encoding methods, we investigated several types of fingerprints, including traditional topological fingerprints, substructure-based fingerprints, and string-based representations. These two models were trained on seven well-known molecular datasets to evaluate different input molecular encoding methods based on evaluation metrics. On several biologically relevant classification tasks, including toxicity, mutagenicity, and side-effect prediction, our models consistently achieved average AUC values above 0.9. Rather than relying on external post-hoc explanation methods such as the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) or the Deep SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), we leveraged the model's intrinsic attention weights as an internal interpretability signal for identifying potentially important feature. The MLP+TL model using MACCS and PubChem as input can capture chemically interpretable groups that determined the major blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeability and mutagenicity in Salmonella typhimurium. In particular, a comparison between Morphine and Heroin highlighted the role of hydroxyl-related substructures in BBB permeability prediction, which was consistently reflected in the attention weights. Overall, our findings provide practical guidance for selecting effective molecular encoding methods and contribute to the development of interpretable molecular informatics approaches for drug discovery.