Cyber-Financial Contagion: Modeling the Propagation of an AI Vendor Compromise Through the Banking System

European financial institutions face mounting regulatory pressure while their security operations centres remain constrained not by data or staffing but by reasoning capacity: enterprise SIEMs cover only a fraction of MITRE ATT&CK techniques, two thirds of SOC teams cannot keep pace with alert volumes, and the majority of breaches are preceded by alerts that are generated but never investigated. Frontier large language models now achieve state-of-the-art results on isolated cybersecurity tasks (one-day vulnerability exploitation, code-level patching, intrusion detection) yet no narrow win constitutes a platform that can compose across functions, persist multi-tenant state, map findings to regulatory regimes and survive an audit. This position paper argues that the right unit of construction is a hybrid multi-agent system in which specialised LLM subagents reason over classical SIEM/XDR telemetry rather than replacing it, share accumulated agent state across institutions through privacy-preserving federation, and can connect to complementary capability packs such as quantum-based authentication, digital twins for adversarial validation, and eBPF-based kernel telemetry. We present CyberAId, a model-agnostic, on-premise-deployable platform in which a Main Agent coordination layer, a Reporting capability, and specialist subagents operate within a shared runtime under bounded human-in-the-loop autonomy, organised around four falsifiable design principles, and aligned with relevant regulations. CyberAId will be validated at four representative financial use cases (client impersonation, anti-money-laundering for payment service providers, retail-banking incident response, and high-frequency-trading resilience) and propose skill-based agent adaptation as the most promising research direction for turning each deployment into a contribution to a continuously refined collective defence.

Deploying machine learning in regulated financial environments -- credit risk, fraud detection, and anti-money laundering -- exposes critical vulnerabilities in algorithmic reproducibility. While early financial ML addressed statistical challenges such as backtest overfitting, deep neural networks and Generative AI have introduced mechanical nondeterminism rooted in hardware and architecture. This survey provides a systems perspective on reproducibility failures across three modalities now dominant in financial AI: tabular models (post-hoc explanation variance), graph networks (stochastic sampling and temporal asynchrony), and LLM-based agentic workflows (batch-dependent divergence and trajectory drift). We supplement the literature analysis with first-party experiments on public financial datasets -- quantifying explanation rank instability in credit scoring, prediction flip rates in GNN-based fraud detection, and tensor-parallel-induced output divergence in LLM entity extraction. We propose a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics (RBO, D_cos, TDI, PSD) to audit readiness, and empirically validate the complementarity of logit-level and semantic-level determinism measures.

The U.S. financial system processes approximately 1.3 million interbank transactions daily, yet no system in the reviewed literature models fraud propagation across the interbank network using fraud co-occurrence edge features. Prior interbank GNN architectures model credit contagion using credit distress supervision signals, producing systems misaligned for fraud forensics. No existing system generates SAR narratives with per-assertion forensic traceability to specific numerical detection outputs, creating regulatory auditability gaps in FinCEN-submitted reports. This paper introduces SCAFDS (Systemic Contagion-Aware Fraud Detection System), a seven-stage integrated surveillance pipeline addressing five structural limitations of prior art: (1) fraud-specific interbank topology encoding using fraud co-occurrence frequency metrics f(u,v,t) derived from FinCEN SAR registry records; (2) edge-feature-informed graph attention where coefficients are computed from both node representations and fraud co-occurrence edge features; (3) bilinear fraud co-occurrence risk fusion producing institution-level systemic fraud risk scores; (4) attribution-conditioned SAR narrative generation with per-assertion significance thresholds ensuring each FinCEN SAR assertion is traceable to a specific numerical pipeline output; and (5) topology-aware adaptive forensic feedback updating graph attention weights from regulatory dispositions. Experiments on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection Dataset (590,540 transactions) and a synthetic FDIC-aligned interbank network (8,103 institutions, 169,800 edges) show SCAFDS achieves AUPRC=0.515+/-0.032 and AUROC=0.802+/-0.018, representing +15.9pp and +13.7pp improvements over GraphSAGE-AML. Partial validation on FDIC enforcement action records (n=4,279) confirms consistent model ranking. USPTO Provisional Patent Application No. 64/061,083, filed May 8, 2026.