From Repetition to Recognition: Inductive Discovery of Disinformation Narratives

Detecting disinformation narratives on social media is challenging due to the scale of amplification, rapid evolution, and linguistic variability of online content. We propose a graph-based framework for identifying and analyzing disinformation narratives in Telegram ecosystems by combining weak supervision with propagation graph analysis. The approach aggregates semantically related claims into narrative-level clusters and models their diffusion across interconnected channels. This enables the detection of coordinated narrative amplification that is difficult to capture through post-level analysis alone. Our results demonstrate that integrating textual signals with network structure provides a scalable method for detecting disinformation narratives and offers insights into how they propagate within large-scale messaging environments.

The democratization of LLMs has accelerated the generation and circulation of highly fluent disinformation, making traditional syntax-semantic verification increasingly insufficient. Such deception rarely relies solely on surface-level falsity; instead, it often combines persuasive rhetoric, emotional manipulation, and narrative role construction to influence readers' interpretations through multiple cognitive pathways. However, existing detectors typically emphasize isolated signals -- such as syntax, external knowledge, persuasion, or affective cues -- and therefore struggle to capture the multi-faceted manipulative intents underlying disinformation or provide human-auditable explanations. To address this gap, we present \textbf{ExTax}, a taxonomy-aligned framework for explainable disinformation detection. ExTax unifies persuasive rhetoric, emotional manipulation, and narrative roles into a 17-dimensional taxonomic space, covering 6 persuasive-rhetoric strategies, 5 emotional-manipulation methods, and 6 narrative-role categories. It elicits attributes from multiple frontier LLMs, reconciles their disagreements through Entropy-driven Dynamic Label Smoothing, and fuses the resulting taxonomic representations with contextual encodings via Heterogeneous Multi-Head Attention, grounding each prediction in an interpretable manipulation profile. Across five cross-domain and cross-genre benchmarks, ExTax achieves an overall Macro $F_1$ of $0.8456$, outperforming state-of-the-art deep learning and LLM-based baselines. It also remains robust under severe genre imbalance, where the strongest deep baseline degrades from $0.9454$ to $0.6194$.

Automatic misinformation detection performs well when deception is visible in what an article explicitly states. However, some misinformation articles remain locally coherent and only become misleading once compared with contemporaneous reports that supply background facts the article omits. We study this omission-relevant setting and observe that current omission-aware approaches typically either attach retrieved context as auxiliary evidence or infer a categorical omission signal, leaving the specific missing fact implicit. We propose \emph{Latent Causal Void} (LCV), a retrieval-guided detector that explicitly reconstructs the missing fact for each target sentence and uses it as a textual cross-source relation in graph reasoning. Concretely, LCV retrieves temporally aligned context articles, asks a frozen instruction-tuned large language model to generate a short missing-context description for each sentence--article pair, and feeds the resulting relation text into a heterograph over target sentences and context articles. On the bilingual benchmark of Sheng et al., LCV improves over the strongest omission-aware baseline by $2.56$ and $2.84$ macro-F1 points on the English and Chinese splits, respectively. The results indicate that modeling the missing cross-source fact itself, rather than only attaching retrieved evidence or predicting an omission signal, is a useful representation for omission-aware misinformation detection.