Automated Identification of Competing Narratives in Political Discourse on Social Media

We present a new computational framework for detecting and structuring manipulative political narratives. A task that became more important due to the shift of political discussions to social media. One of the primary challenges thereby is differentiating between manipulative political narratives and legitimate critiques. Some posts may also reframe actual events within a manipulative context. To achieve good clustering results, we filter manipulative posts beforehand using a detailed few-shot prompt that combines documented campaign narratives with legitimate criticisms to differentiate them. This prompt enables a reasoning model to assign labels, retaining only manipulative narrative posts for further processing. The remaining posts are subsequently embedded and dimensionality-reduced using UMAP, before HDBSCAN is applied to uncover narrative groups. A key advantage of this unsupervised approach is its independence from a predefined list of target categories, enabling it to uncover new narrative clusters. Finally, a reasoning model is employed to uncover the narrative behind each cluster. This approach, applied to over 1.2 million social media posts, effectively identified 41 distinct manipulative narrative clusters by integrating prompt-based filtering with unsupervised clustering.

The proliferation of large language models has introduced a new paradigm of synthetic political communication in which narratives may be generated, semantically coordinated, and strategically disseminated across platforms at scale. We present a cross-platform framework for detecting synthetic political narratives using four coordination signals -- lexical diversity D(C), temporal burstiness B(C), rhetorical repetition R(C), and semantic homogenization H(C) -- combined into a Synthetic Narrative Coordination Score SNC(C). We apply the framework to a corpus of 353,223 records spanning six geopolitical event windows collected from six Telegram channels and nine Reddit communities (2023--2026). Results show that IntelSlava exhibits the lowest lexical diversity (MATTR 0.52--0.54), the highest burstiness (B=+0.48 to +0.73), and the highest rhetorical overlap with peer channels (Jaccard 0.12), ranking first in the composite SNC(C) on four of six event windows (SNC 0.45--0.60). Rybar ranks last on all windows despite its high semantic homogenization, because its Russian-language output yields high lexical diversity and near-zero rhetorical Jaccard with English-language channels -- demonstrating that no single indicator is sufficient for coordination detection. Multi-dimensional SNC(C) scoring provides a more robust and interpretable signal than any individual metric.

Research on political polarization on social media depends on the ability to reliably measure partisanship in user-generated content. However, existing approaches are typically tailored to platform-specific properties, such as structural affordances or linguistic conventions, which hurts generalizability across platforms. This limitation is increasingly consequential as the social media ecosystem fragments and fringe, alt-tech platforms emerge alongside mainstream ones. We propose a text-based, platform-portable methodology for measuring political partisanship in social media posts, anchored by an external news-credibility signal. Posts are embedded using a transformer-based sentence encoder and clustered into topic groups, which are labeled using the aggregated AllSides media bias scores of cited news outlets. A partisanship axis is then constructed in the embedding space as the difference between centroids of oppositely labeled clusters, and individual posts are scored by projection onto this axis. We apply the method to a corpus of approximately 1.3 million posts collected from Bluesky and Truth Social during the six months preceding the 2024 U.S. presidential election, providing the first cross-platform comparison of partisanship distributions on these two ideologically asymmetric platforms. The resulting partisanship scores correlate significantly with held-out AllSides media bias scores both in-distribution and out-of-distribution on an independent Twitter corpus, and recover within-platform partisan dynamics that platform identity alone cannot explain.