Windowed A-K-MDP

Sequential decision-making in real-world applications often involves uncertainty about the environment's model. Uncertain Markov decision processes (UMDPs) represent the possible environments as a set of MDPs with shared states and actions but potentially different transition probabilities and rewards. Optimizing a single policy across all possible MDPs may sacrifice performance, while preparing an individually optimized policy for every MDP may violate operational, regulatory, or interpretability constraints on the number of policies that can be prepared and deployed. We consider settings in which model uncertainty is resolved shortly before execution, allowing the most suitable policy to be selected from a limited set prepared in advance. We introduce $k$-adaptable policy synthesis, which optimizes such a set of $k$ policies under a minimax-regret objective. We prove that the problem is NP-hard and develop KAPS, an exact nested branch-and-bound algorithm with problem-specific bounds and heuristics. KAPS jointly optimizes which MDPs share a policy and the policies themselves. Experiments across various UMDP benchmarks show that the largest reduction in regret consistently occurs when increasing from one to two policies. In the single-policy setting, KAPS is competitive with existing methods in solution quality and proves optimality substantially more often.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations. The exponential blowup in the number of states renders many reasoning tasks in MDPs challenging. Abstractions are promising techniques to reduce MDPs and thus mitigate scalability issues. In this work, we introduce a notion of causality on factored MDPs and a novel property-driven causal abstraction technique that retains many characteristics of the original MDP model. For this, we rely on causal relations over state variable predicates and identify those states that share the same reasons for fulfilling or violating a given abstraction property. We theoretically and empirically compare various causal MDP abstractions using different model types such as MDPs, interval MDPs, or stochastic games. Our evaluation demonstrates the potential of our approach: For several standard benchmarks, we obtain small abstractions that allow us to compute near-optimal policies for the original MDP. Furthermore, our causal abstractions often generalize to related large-scale MDP models.

Learning the optimal policy for Markov decision process problems (MDPs) from samples is a fundamental problem in online and data-driven decision-making. Function approximations are usually deployed to handle large or infinite state-action space. In our work, we consider the MDP problems with function approximation and we develop a new algorithm to solve it efficiently. Our algorithm is based on a linear programming (LP) reformulation and repeatedly resolves the identified reduced linear system as new transition samples arrive. After the optimal basis is identified, we show that, after $N$ resolving rounds, the expected averaged iterate achieves an instance-dependent $\widetilde O(C_{\mathrm{inst}}/N)$ objective shortfall and signed constraint residual. We separately account for the historical samples used for basis identification and the $d_2$ transition queries used in each resolving round, which yields the corresponding total transition-query complexity. We further complement our result with a \textit{robust} $O(1/\sqrt{N})$ bound that is independent of $Δ$. In comparison to the guarantees established in the previous literature, our instance dependent guarantee is tighter when the underlying instance is favorable, and the numerical experiments also reveal the wide applications and efficient empirical performances of our algorithms.