The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound impacts on global health, social structures, and economies. It disproportionately affected lower socioeconomic groups and those reliant on interaction-based jobs. Regulatory bodies faced the challenge of designing policies that preserve public health while limiting disruption to economic stability and productivity. Epidemiological models such as SIR and agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to study disease dynamics and the socioeconomic impacts of disease and interventions. Population-level models often simplify individual heterogeneity, while detailed ABMs can become computationally expensive as the numbers of agents and interactions increase. We propose ABM-SIRTEM, a hybrid model that incorporates occupation categories, economic productivity, and welfare at the individual level while dynamically modeling compliance with government interventions. We calibrate the model against historical positive and negative test counts from four U.S. states and examine the resulting compliance dynamics. This framework provides a basis for studying the interaction between disease spread and socioeconomic behavior in pandemic-response planning.
Purpose The WHO's COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., lockdowns, vaccinations) effectively curb transmission but impose heavy economic strains. Existing research often neglects individual behaviors and falsely assumes perfect infection tracking and flawless policy execution, failing to account for real-world uncertainties and errors. Methods We propose an integrative approach incorporating uncertainties in both epidemic measurement (infections/hospitalizations) and policy implementation. We built a simulation model of 1,000 individuals making real-time choices regarding mask-wearing, vaccination, and shopping. Concurrently, policymakers deploy interventions (lockdowns, mandates) based on health and economic observations. This framework is driven by hierarchical reinforcement learning agents, utilizing deep Q-networks alongside uncertainty-aware policy gradient variants (DDPG and TD3). Results The simulations effectively managed the epidemic's progression. Masking and vaccinations proved highly effective, significantly reducing both the outbreak's peak height and duration. By integrating individual behaviors, policy uncertainties, and multifaceted interventions, our dynamic control approach successfully mitigated the epidemic's impact. Conclusions Our model overcomes previous research limitations by embedding uncertainty and human behavior into public health policy frameworks. The simulation demonstrates that accounting for individual choices and imperfect data is crucial for designing effective interventions during complex pandemics, with masks and vaccines serving as pivotal tools.
Janani Venugopalan, Gaurav Deshkar, Rishabh Gaur +2
This paper presents a hybrid modeling approach that couples an Agent-Based Model (ABM) with a partial differential equation (PDE) model in an epidemic setting to simulate the spatial spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental structure with seven health states. The goal is to reduce the computational complexity of a full-ABM by introducing a coupled ABM-PDE model that offers significantly faster simulations while maintaining comparable accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the hybrid model not only reduces the overall simulation runtime (defined as the number of runs required for stable results multiplied by the duration of a single run) but also achieves smaller errors across both 25% and 100% population samples. The coupling mechanism ensures consistency at the model interface: agents crossing from the ABM into the PDE domain are removed and represented as density contributions, while surplus density in the PDE domain is used to generate agents with plausible trajectories derived from mobile phone data. We evaluate the hybrid model using real-world mobility and infection data for the Berlin-Brandenburg region in Germany, showing that it captures the core epidemiological dynamics while enabling efficient large-scale simulations. These results demonstrate that the proposed ABM-PDE framework provides a robust and computationally efficient alternative to full-scale agent-based simulations, making it suitable for realistic epidemic modeling and scenario analysis.
Agent-based modeling (ABM) has the capability to model millions of individuals and their interactions, which is useful for policy making. However, ABMs have traditionally relied on static prior, which prevents the models from adapting to real-time changes. Our research provides a novel approach to addressing this information gap. Large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to predict human decision-making. Here, we introduce a scalable Hybrid Agent-based and Language-driven Epidemic (HALE) modeling framework that leverages LLMs to predict human decision-making in an ABM simulation. As a proof-of-concept, we use HALE to simulate COVID-19 and its effects in Salt Lake County, UT.
Sifat Afroj Moon, Dakotah Maguire, Adam Spannaus +5