Chain-of-Thought Entropy as a Reliability Signal: A Preregistered Reproduction

Theodore O. Cochran

cs.CLSep 17, 2026

Chain-of-Thought Entropy as a Reliability Signal: A Preregistered Reproduction

Authors: Theodore O. Cochran

Organizations: AI for Altruism

Abstract

This empirical study is an independent reproduction of the dissociation Zhao reported in 2026. The shape of a large language model's chain-of-thought entropy trajectory predicts whether the final answer is correct, while the magnitude of its total entropy drop does not. The dissociation merits reproduction because the magnitude half rests on a single 300-problem run with one model at one seed, while the shape half was reported at full scale on both benchmarks and on a second model family. Registered at OSF before any confirmatory run, the reproduction crosses the complete GSM8K and MATH-500 benchmark test sets with four open-weight models including one reasoning-distilled model of a kind the original did not test. The shape signal replicates. The magnitude signal divides by setting. On the anchor model the accuracy gap between monotone and non-monotone chains is +9.6 percentage points on GSM8K and +27.5 on MATH-500, while the rank correlation of the total entropy drop with correctness is -0.018 on GSM8K and +0.414 on MATH-500. On the reasoning-distilled model the binary form of the shape signal fires on about one chain in a hundred, too few to estimate the registered contrast, while the graded violation count remains predictive there. In an exploratory comparison the final-step entropy alone outperforms the binary shape flag in all eight model-by-benchmark cells by ROC area, and in six or seven by the risk-coverage area the original reports, depending on an integration range the original does not state. The study contributes a reproduction of the shape signal at full test-set scale under seven documented protocol differences, a map of the settings where the magnitude signal holds and fails, and measurements of four protocol dependencies the original does not report.

Explore similar work

May 11, 2026cs.LG

The Last Word Often Wins: A Format Confound in Chain-of-Thought Corruption Studies

Corruption studies, the standard tool for evaluating chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness, infer which steps are ``computationally important'' from accuracy loss when steps are corrupted. We show that when benchmark chains end with an explicit terminal answer line, as in GSM8K and MATH, these tests largely measure \emph{answer placement} rather than where intermediate computation is carried out. Using matched GSM8K examples, removing only the final answer statement while preserving all reasoning collapses suffix sensitivity by about

19\times

for Qwen~2.5-3B (

N{=}300

p{=}0.022

). Conflicting-answer prompts, which contain correct reasoning but a wrong explicit final answer, drive accuracy to zero or near-zero at 7B across five open-weight model families; wrong-answer following is strong at 3B--7B and attenuates sharply at larger scales. Replications on MATH, within-stable comparisons at 7B, and suffix-free chains show the same pattern in different guises: corruption sensitivity tracks the location of explicit answer text, not a fixed computational depth in the reasoning. Generation-time probes indicate that final answers are rarely early-determined during generation (

{<}5\%

early commitment), yet consumption-time behavior systematically follows explicit answer text. The confound is therefore largely a readout effect when the chain is consumed. We propose a three-prerequisite protocol (question-only control, format characterization, and an all-position sweep) as a practical minimum for future corruption-based faithfulness studies.

Gabriel Garcia

Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Correctness Explanation Faithfulness Latent Confounders Benchmark Suite Loss Function

Ask PDF

Jul 16, 2026cs.CL

Answer-Conditioned Chains of Thought Degrade Verifiable-Reasoning Distillation in Large Language Models

A standard recipe for distilling the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs) is to sample chains of thought from the model, keep those that reach the correct final answer, and fine-tune on the survivors. When sampling fails, a common fix shows the generator the gold answer and asks it to write a chain that reaches that answer. We show that this second step degrades the training data in a way that correctness filtering cannot catch. We run a controlled experiment that fixes the generator, the problem set, and the correctness filter, and varies only whether the chain is generated under answer-conditioning, the gold answer shown with a request to reach it. Training a strong instruction-tuned reasoning model on its own answer-conditioned chains sharply lowers its verifiable-reasoning accuracy. The loss grows with difficulty, reaching as much as about 27 points on the hardest competition problems. The mechanism is legible in the chains themselves, which rationalize backward from the shown answer instead of deriving it, with the early final-answer statement as the measurable symptom. The harm is a property of the data rather than the generator, read off unlabeled generations before any fine-tuning, ordering the penalty across eight thinking models from four families, and transferring across teacher families. A prompt ablation localizes it to the rationalize-toward instruction rather than the answer's bare visibility. The practical takeaway is to generate answer-blind, because no correctness filter can see this damage in the data.

Jungseob Lee, Seungyoon Lee, Suhyune Son +4

Large Language Model Reasoning

Ask PDF

May 12, 2026cs.AI

When Reasoning Traces Become Performative: Step-Level Evidence that Chain-of-Thought Is an Imperfect Oversight Channel

Chain-of-thought (CoT) traces are increasingly used both to improve language model capability and to audit model behavior, implicitly assuming that the visible trace remains synchronized with the computation that determines the answer. We test this assumption with a step-level Detect-Classify-Compare framework built around an answer-commitment proxy that is cross-validated with Patchscopes, tuned-lens probes, and causal direction ablation. Across nine models and seven reasoning benchmarks, latent commitment and explicit answer arrival align on only 61.9% of steps on average. The dominant mismatch pattern is confabulated continuation: 58.0% of detected mismatch events occur after the answer-commitment proxy has already stabilized while the trace continues producing deliberative-looking text, and a vacuousness analysis shows that the committed answer does not change during these steps. In architecture-matched Qwen2.5/DeepSeek-R1-Distill comparisons, the reasoning pipeline changes failure composition more than aggregate alignment, most clearly at 32B where confabulated steps decrease as contradictory states increase. Lower step-level alignment is also associated with larger CoT utility, suggesting that the settings that benefit most from CoT are often the least temporally faithful. Paired truncation and a complementary donor-corruption test further indicate that much post-commitment text is not load-bearing for the final answer. These findings suggest that CoT can remain useful while still being an unreliable report of when the answer was formed.

Wenkai Li, Fan Yang, Ananya Hazarika +2

Reasoning Traces Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Reasoning Benchmark Deepseek Mismatch

Ask PDF