Statistical Gains from Looped Estimation under Parameter Budgets

Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias. Here we show that pretrained large language models induce risk-equivalent estimators of conditional expectations under squared loss, establishing restricted functional risk equivalence: under squared loss, the LLM induces an estimator whose risk matches the Bayes optimal risk for squared-loss prediction of conditional expectations for any inference that depends on the data only through the conditional mean. We formalize the LLM as a misspecified functional estimator $T(\hat{P}_n)$ trained on i.i.d.\ data, decompose the estimation error into representation bias $ε_{\mathrm{rep}}$ and optimization error, and prove that under mild regularity conditions the LLM's expected error converges to the irreducible population variance plus the squared representation bias, with the representation bias bounded by the Pinsker inequality. The identifiability error $δ$ propagates into the effective bias, inflating the asymptotic risk floor. We establish restricted functional risk equivalence via a bidirectional Le Cam deficiency analysis: the forward deficiency vanishes asymptotically while the reverse deficiency is exactly zero. We provide finite-sample concentration bounds and a calibration protocol with explicit decision rules. The result is a precise, provable statement: a well-calibrated LLM achieves the Bayes-optimal risk for conditional-mean-dependent inference, bounded by explicit scope conditions. In practical applications, this means that under satisfied conditions and well-calibrated models, large language models can be used in many prediction and decision-making tasks that originally relied on human experiments, approximating near-optimal statistical inference at lower cost.

Looped (weight-tied) Transformers apply a shared residual block $N$ times ($h \leftarrow h + \varepsilon\,f(h)$, same $f$ at each step), increasing effective depth without adding parameters. Prior depth-scaling analyses prescribe $\varepsilon = 1/\!\sqrt{L}$ for depth-$L$ residual networks. We show that this is insufficient for looped architectures: weight sharing makes residual updates correlated across iterations, requiring the stronger scaling $\varepsilon = 1/N$. For multi-layer blocks ($L$ unique layers looped $N$ times), we derive a factored parameterization $\varepsilon = \lambda/(N\!\sqrt{L})$ that separates the two sources of growth: $1/N$ controls the within-layer loop correlation, and $1/\!\sqrt{L}$ controls the across-layer variance. A key consequence is that the optimal learning rate depends only on the number of unique layers $L$, not on the loop count $N$, enabling direct hyperparameter transfer from small to large $N$ without retuning. Experiments on looped Transformers confirm that $1/N$ scaling improves trainability and yields better loss than $1/\!\sqrt{N}$ scaling across loop counts.

The statistical accuracy of neural networks depends on both their approximation power and the complexity of the class fitted from data. While increasing network size is a natural way to improve approximation, parameter magnitude provides another resource whose role must be quantified in both respects. We establish a sharp width--magnitude tradeoff at fixed depth using one elementary bounded $1$-Lipschitz Dyadic--Triangular Activation. For the unit $β$-Hölder ball on $[0,1]^d$ with $0<β\leq1$, the optimal $L^p$ approximation error for $0<p<\infty$ is of order $[N^2\log(eNT)]^{-β/d}$ when the network width satisfies $N\geq2d+3$ and the parameter magnitudes are bounded by $T\geq1$. Matching lower bounds hold for every fixed globally Hölder activation; its Hölder exponent affects the constants but not the rate. Under bounded design densities and independent centered sub-Gaussian noise, approximate least squares over the full clipped class at depth $23$ attains the classical Hölder minimax risk $\mathcal{O}(M^{-\frac{2β}{2β+d}})$ without logarithmic loss whenever $N^2\log(eNT)\asymp M^{\frac{d}{2β+d}}$, where $M$ is the sample size. This yields a continuum of statistically optimal choices, ranging from unit parameter radius to fixed network size. At fixed size, four hidden layers with at most $8d+7$ nonzero parameters give a near-optimal radius, while six layers with at most $8d+27$ attain the optimal order $\log T=\mathcal{O}(η^{-d/β})$ at approximation error $η$. The same decoding method also yields fixed-size Transformer approximation.