A Comparative Analysis of Attention versus State-Space Models for In-Context Learning

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers, enabling sequence modeling with constant memory and linear compute. Although SSMs exhibit reasonable performance and favorable computational characteristics, they continue to lag behind Transformers on tasks that require in-context learning and precise retrieval, slowing their adoption for large-scale language modeling. In this work, we demonstrate that both the success and failure of SSMs in these domains can be explained by studying the role of the gating mechanism, a prevalent component in modern recurrent networks. Specifically, we show through theory and experiments that this gating mechanism causes SSMs to first learn an in-weights "memorization" solution, while delaying, or even preventing, convergence to a correct in-context learning solution. Importantly, this happens even in cases where there are no fundamental limitations due to the architecture or its memory capacity. On the other hand, we find that gating is often beneficial for improving generalization to long sequence lengths. Our results illuminate the crucial role of the gating mechanism in shaping both the training dynamics and generalization of SSMs, and provide a basis for understanding and improving linear-time models.

Selective state space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a compelling alternative to transformers, combining competitive performance with substantially improved inference efficiency. At each SSM layer, a sequence of hidden states are propagated by a recurrence, mixing information of different tokens. Despite using a different mechanism, this mixing plays a role analogous to attention in transformers. In fact, recent works have shown that the two architectures may be closer than they first appear, as this recurrence admits a formulation akin to linear attention. In transformers, attention is known to drive the tokens to cluster, i.e., to reach consensus, collapsing in the limit to a single direction. Thus, we ask: does the recurrence at the core of SSMs drive the tokens to consensus, as attention does in transformers? To answer this question, we take a dynamical systems perspective on SSMs, modeling the evolution of tokens across layers as an ordinary differential equation. By exploiting input-to-state stability arguments, we establish local exponential stability of the consensus equilibria and characterize their domain of attraction for time-varying weight matrices, a setting not addressed by previous results. We thereby show that the resemblance between SSMs and transformers does run deeper: the recurrence at the core of SSMs aggregates tokens just as attention does. Numerical experiments on a pretrained Mamba-2 model point to the output gate as the component that regulates the extent of this consensus, preventing the tokens from reaching it in full.

We propose Bayesian optimal sequential prediction as a new principle for understanding in-context learning (ICL). Unlike interpretations framing Transformers as performing implicit gradient descent, we formalize ICL as meta-learning over latent sequence tasks. For tasks governed by Linear Gaussian State Space Models (LG-SSMs), we prove a meta-trained selective SSM asymptotically implements the Bayes-optimal predictor, converging to the posterior predictive mean. We further establish a statistical separation from gradient descent, constructing tasks with temporally correlated noise where the optimal Bayesian predictor strictly outperforms any empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimator. Since Transformers can be seen as performing implicit ERM, this demonstrates selective SSMs achieve lower asymptotic risk due to superior statistical efficiency. Experiments on synthetic LG-SSM tasks and a character-level Markov benchmark confirm selective SSMs converge faster to Bayes-optimal risk, show superior sample efficiency with longer contexts in structured-noise settings, and track latent states more robustly than linear Transformers. This reframes ICL from "implicit optimization" to "optimal inference," explaining the efficiency of selective SSMs and offering a principled basis for architecture design.