Universal Dynamic Portfolios

In non-stationary online learning, dynamic regret has attracted increasing attention as a measure of how well an online learner performs against a time-varying comparator sequence. Despite considerable advances, attaining optimal bounds for strongly convex and exp-concave losses often involves intricate analysis. In this paper, we present a \textit{simple} framework that reduces dynamic regret minimization to switching regret minimization. As a result, we can derive dynamic regret bounds by using off-the-shelf algorithms with switching regret guarantees. The key idea of our reduction is to construct, for \textit{any} comparator sequence, an auxiliary random sequence that is unbiased at each round, with the controlled variance and a manageable number of switches. Combining this construction with suitable surrogate losses, we can decompose dynamic regret into the expected switching regret against the random sequence and its controlled variance. Theoretically, for strongly convex and exp-concave losses, we establish the $\widetilde{O}(T^{1/3}P_T^{2/3})$ dynamic regret bounds, where $T$ denotes the time horizon and $P_T$ denotes the path-length of the comparator sequence. Moreover, for general convex losses, the same reduction also recovers the $O(\sqrt{T(1+P_T)})$ dynamic regret bound. Notably, all our findings match the minimax optimal results for these three types of losses, highlighting the versatility of our proposed framework.

Non-stationary online learning has attracted much attention in recent years, as static regret is insufficient to guide algorithm design in changing environments. To address this limitation, interval regret and dynamic regret have been introduced as two representative performance metrics that strengthen static regret in complementary directions. Interval regret requires an online algorithm to achieve competitive static regret over every local time interval, whereas dynamic regret evaluates performance against an arbitrary sequence of time-varying comparators. Despite their importance, the relation between these metrics has long remained unclear. Prior work has often regarded interval regret as the stronger notion, based on the intuition that local guarantees should naturally induce global guarantees. Consequently, it is widely conjectured that an algorithm with optimal interval regret should automatically attain optimal dynamic regret. In this paper, we first establish a negative result that refutes this intuition of a metric-level implication. Specifically, for both convex and curved functions (including exp-concave and strongly convex functions), we show that there exist instances in which an algorithm with optimal interval regret nevertheless fails to achieve optimal dynamic regret. We then show how to leverage local adaptivity to obtain optimal dynamic regret. In particular, optimal dynamic regret can be attained by invoking an interval regret minimization process over an enlarged Euclidean ball containing the original convex feasible domain and using a suitable domain-converted surrogate loss. This reduction applies to both convex and curved functions. As a byproduct, we obtain the first proper and efficient algorithm with optimal dynamic regret for exp-concave functions, improving prior results while significantly simplifying the analysis.

We study online convex optimization with one unbiased stochastic subgradient per round and noise having a finite $p$-th central moment, where $p\in(1,2]$ is unknown. For a bounded convex domain of diameter $D$, subgradients bounded by $G$, noise scale $σ$, and comparator path length $P_T$, let $Λ_T=1+P_T/D$. A single algorithm, using none of $G,σ,p,P_T$, attains expected dynamic regret $O_p\left(\min\{GD\sqrt{TΛ_T}+σDT^{1/p}Λ_T^{(p-1)/p},\,GDT\}\right)$ against every fixed comparator sequence. Restarted AdaGrad experts produce the noise-path exponent $(p-1)/p$, and a prior favoring longer restart intervals removes horizon-dependent logarithmic overhead. We give an explicit bound uniform in $p$; its logarithm-free form has noise coefficient $O(1+\log(p/(p-1)))$, while the static-regret constant is universal. The analysis requires only marginal noise moments and permits dependent errors. Complete pathwise proofs retain both the expert-loss range and the gradient energies preceding comparator movement. Matching lower bounds hold on every bounded convex domain of positive diameter, under the same gradient-only information model. Together with a path-budget-tuned upper bound, they characterize the minimax rate with universal constants, including its linear-regret saturation.