ABC: Advantage-Based Control Variates for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards spends much of its rollout budget on states that yield no learning signal. We recast this as a question about the sampling distribution itself: under a fixed rollout budget, which distribution over states minimizes the variance of the policy-gradient estimator? The answer admits a closed-form Neyman allocation, $μ_{\mathrm{var}}^π(s) \propto d^π(s)\,σ_π(s)$, which connects naturally to GRPO's group-relative advantage and induces an emergent reverse curriculum as the policy improves, with no externally imposed schedule. Building on this principle, we propose VSR (Variance-driven State Resampling), a plug-in modification to GRPO using a prefix replay buffer and a zero-cost variance proxy. On mathematical reasoning benchmarks and long-horizon agentic tasks (Sokoban, BabyAI), VSR outperforms GRPO and GiGPO on most benchmarks with fewer generated tokens per update.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, existing group-based RLVR methods often suffer from severe sample inefficiency. This inefficiency stems from reliance on point estimation of rewards from a small number of rollouts, leading to high estimation variance, variance collapse, and ineffective utilization of generated responses. In this work, we reformulate RLVR from a statistical estimation perspective by modeling rewards as samples drawn from a policy-induced distribution and casting advantage computation as the problem of estimating the reward distribution from finite data. Building on this view, we propose Discounted Beta-Bernoulli (DBB) reward estimation, which leverages historical reward statistics for the non-stationary distribution. Although biased, the resulting estimator exhibits reduced and stable variance, theoretically avoids estimated variance collapse, and achieves lower mean squared error than standard point estimation. Extensive experiments across six in-distribution and three out-of-distribution reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that GRPO with DBB consistently outperforms naive GRPO, achieving average Acc@8 improvements of 3.22/2.42 points in-distribution and 12.49/6.92 points out-of-distribution on the 1.7B and 8B models, respectively, without additional computational cost or memory usage.

Critic-free reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), avoids training a value function (critic) and reduces memory and compute overhead relative to critic-based PPO pipelines for aligning large language models. However, GRPO-style advantage estimation depends on prompt-local (within-prompt-group) reward statistics and can be unstable. In particular, when all rollouts in a prompt group receive identical rewards, the within-group reward variance becomes zero, and group normalization yields zero advantages for that group, impeding learning in cold-start regimes with binary verifiers. We introduce BV-Blend, a critic-free framework that stabilizes advantage estimation by combining prompt-local on-policy statistics with semantic-cluster-conditioned historical moments. BV-Blend maintains EMA-tracked reward moments for each cluster, derives a confidence weight from a standard error of the mean (SEM) proxy, and uses this weight to blend historical and prompt-local baseline and variance statistics into a standardized advantage for PPO-style clipped updates. Experiments on verifiable reasoning benchmarks show that BV-Blend improves training stability and performance, and remains robust in regimes where group-normalized methods may stall.