cs.CLSep 30, 2026

RAIM: Robust Aggregation of Inexpensive Models for Hallucination Detection

Authors: Elia Onofri, Roberto Di Pietro

Organizations: Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering (CEMSE) Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Automatic evaluation of faithfulness increasingly relies on a large language model acting as a judge, yet the most reliable judges are proprietary frontier models, costly and ill-suited to high-throughput monitoring. We investigate whether a panel of cheap open-weight judges (4--9B) can be aggregated to stand in for a frontier one, what the substitution sacrifices, and when it is worth making. We propose RAIM, an aggregation scheme robust to the members' correlated errors, coupling a cross-fitted stacked logistic regression with an admissibility test that, read from the members' own outputs, identifies when aggregating them improves on their best member and stays within reach of the frontier judge. We instantiate RAIM with ten judges from disjoint families across eight faithfulness benchmarks. Against Claude Sonnet, the panel retains a median 93% of its Cohen's κκ and gives up only 2.9 points of balanced accuracy on average; read as paired differences, it clearly improves on one benchmark and clearly worsens on three (only two by a non-negligible margin), leaving four unresolved. At a sixty-fourth of the frontier's inference price, the operative expense is a one-time in-domain calibration on 50--100 labelled records. The panel is also competitive with purpose-trained detectors on their home benchmarks (within 1.3 accuracy points of GPT-4o and 1.9 of the LLM-AggreFact leader), and beats the strongest one we reran by 6 points on our grounded sets. Whether aggregation pays depends on the members themselves: where several capable members err on different items, the panel improves on its best judge and approaches the frontier; where one dominates, the stacker recovers the leader, and only there does the frontier remain materially ahead. Both conditions are read off the calibration set at no further cost, so a cheap panel can stand in for a frontier one wherever this audit admits it.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables28 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

May 28, 2026cs.CL

Nine Judges, Two Effective Votes: Correlated Errors Undermine LLM Evaluation Panels

LLM-as-a-judge panels aggregate votes from multiple models, with the expectation that diverse models yield more reliable evaluations. We develop a framework to measure the true informational value of such panels and quantify how far their reliability falls short of the independent-voting ideal. Testing a panel of 9 frontier LLMs from 7 model families on three natural language inference datasets (each with 100 human annotations per item), we find that the 9 judges effectively provide only about 2 independent votes' worth of information. Roughly three-quarters of the panel's nominal independence is lost because the models make the same mistakes on the same items. The consequences are stark: the panel's actual accuracy falls 8-22 percentage points short of what independent voting would achieve, and the best single judge matches or outperforms the full panel across all conditions. Neither adding more judges nor using smarter aggregation algorithms helps -- established methods close at most 11% of this gap, even with access to the correct answers. We quantify these findings using the Kish effective sample size (n_eff) and a Condorcet null model, and show the deficit is robust across prompt variants, temperatures, chain-of-thought reasoning, and a pairwise preference task (RewardBench). The bottleneck is correlated judges, not the aggregation algorithm, implying that scaling up panels cannot substitute for genuinely independent evaluation.
Feb 9, 2026cs.LG

CARE: Confounder-Aware Aggregation for Reliable LLM Evaluation

LLM-as-a-judge ensembles are the standard paradigm for scalable evaluation, but their aggregation mechanisms suffer from a fundamental flaw: they implicitly assume that judges provide independent estimates of true quality. However, in practice, LLM judges exhibit correlated errors caused by shared latent confounders -- such as verbosity, stylistic preferences, or training artifacts -- causing standard aggregation rules like majority vote or averaging to provide little gain or even amplify systematic mistakes. To address this, we introduce CARE, a confounder-aware aggregation framework that explicitly models LLM judge scores as arising from both a latent true-quality signal and shared confounding factors. Rather than heuristically re-weighting judges, CARE separates quality from confounders without access to ground-truth labels. We provide theoretical guarantees for identifiability and finite-sample recovery under shared confounders, and we quantify the systematic bias incurred when aggregation models omit confounding latent factors. Across 12 public benchmarks spanning continuous scoring, binary classification, and pairwise preference settings, CARE improves aggregation accuracy, reducing error by up to 26.8%. Code is released in https://github.com/SprocketLab/CARE.
Jul 9, 2026cs.AI

When LLMs Agree, Are They Right? Auditing Self-Consistency and Cross-Model Agreement as Confidence Signals

LLM-as-judge (Zheng et al., 2023) is increasingly the default for evaluating AI systems in enterprise pipelines, often scaled to ensembles (Verga et al., 2024) or "mixture-of-experts" (Shazeer et al., 2017) panels of judges. These systems share a key assumption: that consistency -- agreement among judges, or among a model's own samples -- indicates correctness. We show this assumption is unreliable. Agreement is not accuracy: a model can agree with itself, and different models can agree with each other, out of shared bias, a memorized heuristic, or an option-position prior rather than truth. We ask when agreement is nonetheless a usable proxy, in a large-scale cross-runner study: 53 runners drew K=50 samples for assigned overlapping cases across comparisons of model tier, prompting, and scale on GPQA Diamond and AIME -- 265,000 samples. Using majority-correctness as the deployment label and a hierarchical runner-clustered bootstrap, agreement is a positive but weak predictor (rho 0.20-0.59, all positive under item-clustered resampling) whose usefulness is regime-dependent: best for unsaturated mid-tier models and for allocating compute, and worst -- over-confident yet no more accurate -- for the most consistent frontier model (agreement >=0.8 on 77% of GPQA case-result entries, 48% of those wrong). An exploratory cross-family check on three Claude tiers shows the same frontier over-confidence, with confident errors recurring across providers above a marginal-preserving null. Self-consistency is thus a conditional proxy for correctness, not a standalone confidence score. We publicly release the de-identified per-run rows and answer distributions.