When a Data Artifact Isn't a Shortcut: Causal Auditing of Synthetic RLVR Corpora

Data-centric scaling of RLVR has focused on collecting or generating verifiable training problems. However, corpus size alone does not determine whether the dataset provides a useful learning signal for a target policy. To guide the synthesis of effective RLVR data, we experimentally characterize dataset effectiveness as a function of its problems, the target policy, and the training rollout budget. Under this characterization, we show that a large open-source math corpus pooled from widely used RLVR datasets falls almost entirely into a zero-advantage trap: for a fixed target policy and rollout budget, roughly 88% of its problems are solved in every rollout or failed in every rollout. Filtering concentrates what remains, but it can only select, discarding the hard problems. Effective synthetic problems should therefore require the reasoning operations and compositions required to solve those hard problems. Yet their difficulty must be calibrated, so that some rollouts succeed, some fail, and at least one correct solution fits within the training budget. Prompting a teacher to vary hard problems directly does not achieve this. Guided by these empirical principles, we introduce MagicBeanStalk, a top-down decomposition and bottom-up recursive data-synthesis algorithm that grows seed problems into families of substantively new, policy- and budget-calibrated training problems while preserving the seeds' reasoning blueprints. Across 8 math benchmarks, continual RLVR on MagicBeanStalk problems improves gpt-oss-120b from 61.2 to 69.8 (+8.6) and DeepSeek v4Flash from 72.4 to 77.9 (+5.4) on a 16K-token budget. Training on the full 78K source corpus improves by only +1.1 and its best filtered real data subset by +5.8. In finance, we synthesize over 14K verifiable problems from only 340 solutions and improve over base by 6.9 and 2.4 points on SecQue and FinanceBench, respectively.

The test suites used as RLVR rewards for code have natural false positives: per-task, persistent, asymmetric errors that accept the same wrong programs every time they appear, unlike the symmetric or resampled noise assumed by existing noise-robustness analyses. We run a preregistered two-arm causal contrast on a deployed suite: GRPO on identical MBPP tasks, seeds, and compute, rewarded by the original MBPP tests (leaky) versus the MBPP+ extra tests (hardened). Two further families replicate the design under a preregistration frozen before their data existed. [C] The average held-out effect is bounded: non-inferior under a preregistered 1.5-pt margin (gap 0.20 pt, one-sided 95% upper bound 0.75 pt). [C] Rewarded false-positive mass tracks a cheap static leakiness audit computed before training (Spearman 0.80), and the registered train-side test puts the leak-stratum FP share +43.8 pt above clean tasks. [E] Auditing every rewarded FP under signed, human-adjudicated rules finds a large residual of verified genuinely wrong code: 47.57% record-weighted; both replication families reproduce a large share. The reward paid for real bugs, not merely suite artifacts. [E] Mechanism evidence is consistent with selection of pre-existing error modes rather than learned exploitation: FP incidence does not grow within our horizon, and untrained base models already produce the same wrong outputs under the leaky filter. We then turn the same instrument on the frontier judges themselves: on their own false positives they self-assess only weakly, a same-author test is unresolved, and even the highest-scoring reader we probe stays far below its score on a weaker policy's errors -- two subjects on MBPP, licensing nothing about frontier models in general. A cheap static audit locates exposure before training; hardening the reward removes the measurement inflation, though here it buys little capability.

The proliferation of Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) datasets has exacerbated provenance collapse due to unclear lineage among existing datasets. To bridge this fragmented RLVR data landscape, we propose Atomic-source Tracing via Lineage-Aware Search (ATLAS), a systematic framework for tracing RLVR datasets back to their atomic sources, attributing over 99.7% of 1.45M instances to 20 atomic sources. Our analysis reveals that most RLVR datasets are variants of a small set of shared upstream sources, with few introducing genuinely new data, and many facing data contamination risks. These findings naturally motivate us to curate a new RLVR dataset, DAPO++, and to benchmark existing datasets from a lineage-aware perspective. To this end, we propose Source-level Counterfactual Attribution (SCA) as a guiding principle to curate a decontaminated training dataset with concentrated learning signals. Essentially, SCA measures a sample's marginal utility by comparing per-atomic-source RL checkpoints against a shared base model. Building upon these attribution signals, we further design a composite dataset quality score Q that strongly correlates with downstream RLVR performance. Experiments on Qwen3 series models verify that DAPO++ consistently improves performance on held-out benchmarks, while Q reliably predicts downstream RLVR training effectiveness. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/Celine-hxy/ATLAS.