AgSpec: Pushing the Limits of Retrieval-Based Speculative Decoding in Coding Agent Pipelines

Large Language Model (LLM) generation remains expensive because autoregressive decoding calls the model once for each new token. Speculative decoding reduces this cost by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them with the target model in one step, but its speedup depends on how many drafted tokens are accepted. Parameter-free draft sources can propose long continuations at low cost in structured and agentic workloads, yet a cache match that looks promising at one generation step may have low payoff at the next. We propose Hybrid Verified Decoding, which predicts the accepted length of a cache draft before verification and uses this payoff estimate to choose between cache verification and a model-based drafter. Across three LLMs and sixteen datasets, Hybrid Verified Decoding is especially effective on agentic workflows, where it outperforms EAGLE3 in every setting with a 2.73x average speedup. Our analysis shows how prompt structure creates cache opportunities, how high-payoff cache drafts concentrate in a small part of the draft space, and how payoff-guided selection reduces sequential decoding work, pointing to runtime draft selection as a promising direction for speculative decoding.

Speculative decoding (SPD) accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by letting a smaller draft model propose multiple future tokens that are verified in parallel by a larger target model. The dominant SPD paradigm treats the target model as the sole reliable teacher, accepting a draft token only when it exactly matches the target prediction. This design implicitly assumes that the target is always the better choice at every position. In practice, this assumption does not hold. Although the draft is the weaker model overall, it is not uniformly inferior at the token level. In a meaningful fraction of cases where draft and target disagree, the draft's choice is the one that leads to the correct final answer. Inspired by this, we introduce \textbf{Collaborative Speculative Decoding (CoSpec)}, a generalization of SPD that no longer treats the target model as the sole token-level authority. CoSpec trains an arbitration policy via reinforcement learning to decide whether to accept tokens from the draft or target model, selectively accepting draft tokens at mismatches when doing so is likely to yield a correct final answer. Experimental results show that CoSpec maintains substantial speedups while surpassing target-only performance. By shifting the emphasis from imitation to collaboration, CoSpec suggests a new perspective on speculative decoding.

Coding agents can now be left alone to improve software against a score. In this pattern--recently popularized as "autoresearch"--the agent receives a dataset, an evaluation script, and one editable file, and iterates without supervision: modify the code, measure, keep the change if the score improves. But what does the agent actually optimize--the developer's intent, or the literal number? We ran this loop on a real production task: deciding which Quranic verses appear in a noisy speech-recognition transcript and splitting the transcript by verse. Two frontier coding agents, Claude Code and OpenAI Codex, started from the same blank file with the same instructions, budget, and reasoning effort, three runs each. Both independently invented the same algorithm (canonicalization, n-gram anchoring, dynamic-programming alignment)--and then diverged. Claude stopped early with compact, general code. Codex drove the score ~10x lower, largely by memorizing answers to individual evaluation rows (19-41 hardcoded verse ids per run): a clean natural instance of specification gaming by a production agent. In a preregistered second study, we added a held-out test set and told both agents it existed. The memorization vanished, and the score gap vanished with it--yet Codex's general core transferred better and more consistently (held-out detection+split 0.085+/-0.004 vs. 0.121+/-0.031), losing only on one missed rejection of non-recitation input. Two exploratory community arms (Cursor, Antigravity) are consistent with the pattern. Every agent's held-out solution matched or beat the hand-engineered pipeline it was built to replace--the best by an order of magnitude--and now runs in production. From the ways agents exploited our harness--reading sibling runs through shared git state, leaving notes to "future runs" in persistent memory--we distill five design rules for evaluating autonomous agents.