Beyond Pointwise Error: A Multi-Metric Evaluation of Spatial Climate Downscaling

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods treat variables independently, degrading inter-variable relationships that govern compound hazards such as heat stress, drought, and wildfire. Here we show that a diffusion-based multivariate generative framework, combined with bias correction, recovers degraded inter-variable correlations even under a 50$\times$ increase in linear resolution. When applied to five meteorological variables over Japan, the framework reduces inter-variable correlation errors by more than fourfold relative to existing baselines while improving both univariate and spatial accuracy, leading to more accurate detection of severe drought. These results demonstrate that multivariate generative downscaling improves the reliability of compound risk assessment under large resolution gaps.

Extreme heat is where urban adaptation needs kilometer-scale data the most, but the simulations training a downscaler can cost more than they save, and how much is needed has not been identified. We measured it with CASPER, a U-Net with a structure-preserving loss downscaling 32 km reanalysis to 1 km temperature, humidity and wind, across 24 configurations of one to eight months. Held-out error grows linearly with climatological distance to the training data, RMSE = 0.83 + 2.95 d, explaining 90% of its variance against 7% for volume and predicting unseen months in advance. On held-out extreme summer weeks CASPER preserves the fine-scale structure and cross-variable physics that matched-budget baselines degrade, and matches station observations during documented heat waves to within 1.8 K. Transfer to a new region degrades geographically; 11 days of local simulation cuts Vancouver's held-out error from 3.8 to 1.3 K. Training periods should span the target climate: the same accuracy for four times less simulation, putting kilometer-scale downscaling of extreme heat within reach of groups without large computing facilities.

Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties. Existing probabilistic downscalers address this gap using hand-crafted topographic and surface descriptors. We ask instead whether Earth observation foundation models can provide transferable subgrid surface representations for probabilistic weather downscaling. We augment a convolutional conditional neural process (ConvCNP) that downscales coarse ERA5 reanalysis fields at ~25 km resolution with a learned local surface descriptor, obtained by compressing a patch of TESSERA embeddings at 10 m resolution. Although these embeddings summarize annual surface conditions, they improve downscaling by encoding persistent surface properties that capture a location's departure from the coarse-grid atmospheric state. Across five climatically diverse regions, the embedding improves point and probabilistic skill at stations held out in both space and time, overall improving CRPS skill by 11.5% for 2 m temperature and 6.2% for 10 m wind speed relative to a topography-only ConvCNP baseline. A hand-crafted descriptor incorporating richer surface information than topography alone captures comparable persistent subgrid signal but yields far smaller predictive gains than the learned embedding representation. These improvements persist when forecasts from the Aurora AI model replace ERA5 reanalysis fields and when predicting at newly deployed weather station networks. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that long-timescale Earth observation embeddings can support short-timescale weather downscaling where subgrid departures are systematically structured by persistent surface properties.