Recent benchmarks rely on user simulators to evaluate AI agents in multi-turn interaction. While existing simulation techniques demonstrate surface fidelity to human style and behavior, ecologically valid interactive benchmarking also requires alignment in when and how agents fail across simulated and real user populations. We find that existing simulators lack outcome calibration: agreement with observed success rates and failure patterns when real users interact with the same agent. We introduce Calibrated User Embeddings (CUE), a framework that both encodes observed sessions and samples continuous representations, then decodes them into persona commands to steer LLMs to act as user simulators without training. Through this, we evaluate user-conditioned replay of past sessions and aggregate metric agreement when sampling novel personas for the same tasks. On τ2-Bench, CUEd simulators commit fewer simulator-attributed errors and more faithfully reproduce real-user agent failure modes, aggregate success rates, and outcomes for specific task-user pairs than other persona-based simulation methods. These gains coexist with competitive user fidelity as measured using metrics established in prior work. After being fit to mostly customer support interactions, the same CUEd simulators generalize to document creation, math tutoring, and casual conversation, and remain effective across different simulator LLMs without CUE retraining.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Method ranks across user fidelity and outcome calibration. Each colored point represents a method’s normalized rank for one setting (base model × evaluation mode), larger points indicate multiple observations at the same rank, and black points indicate mean rank. Ranks are normalized, allowing comparisons with different numbers of applicable methods. *No user-conditioned replay. **No sampled evaluation.
Figure 2: The three components of the CUE framework, with two ways to generate CUEs. : Encode an observed session for retrospective replay, : Sample a new, distributionally plausible CUE from the learned training distribution. Under either option, decoded commands and retrieved training examples augment the task-specific simulator prompt so the base model may act as the user.
Axis
Metric
Type
Source
Nat.
S2R-N ↑
Features
Chopra et al. (2026)
TT ↓
LLM Judge
Wang et al. (2026)
Mim.
AVA ↑
Embedding
Wang et al. (2025)
PT3 ↑
LLM Judge
Zhu et al. (2026)
Cov.
S2R-C ↑
Features
Chopra et al. (2026)
SD-C ↑
Embedding
Patel et al. (2025)
Table 1: User-fidelity metrics adopted from prior work , by axis. Definitions in Appendix D .
Method
Naturalness
Mimicry
Coverage
S2R-N ↑
TT ↓
AVA ↑
PT3 ↑
S2R-C ↑
SD-C ↑
Llama 3.1 8B
None
– /
–
0.44 /
0.44
0.04
0.19
0.01
0.45
UserLM
– /
0.56
– /
0.41
–
–
0.62
0.55
USP
0.26 /
0.27
0.46 /
0.47
0.06
0.02
0.00
0.44
PPol
0.47 /
–
0.18 /
–
0.26
0.13
–
–
Table 2: User fidelity on τ2 -Bench. Naturalness entries are user-conditioned/sampled, mimicry uses user-conditioned and coverage uses sampled. Bold marks the best reported value for each variation.
Method
Role Adherence
Failure Reproduction
Success Alignment
User Gap ↓
Attr. F1 ↑
Agent TVD ↓
Mode F1 ↑
Rate ∣Δ∣↓
Outcome F1 ↑
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.14 /
0.14
0.35
0.36 /
0.36
0.22
0.21 /
0.21
0.50
UserLM
– /
0.54
–
– /
0.31
–
– /
0.39
–
USP
0.73 /
0.72
0.20
0.31 /
0.93
0.05
0.54 /
0.47
0.32
PPol
0.23 /
–
0.34
0.35 /
–
0.13
0.45 /
–
0.38
Table 3: Outcome calibration on τ2 -Bench. Paired entries are user-conditioned/sampled; F1 metrics are only user-conditioned. Attribution F1 conditions on both episodes failing, mode F1 conditions on both having agent-attributed failures. Bold marks best value per variation.
Figure 3: Conditional failure composition over agent-attributed failures. Bars show the proportional distribution of failure modes within each method’s agent-attributed failures. TC = Tool Call .
Base
Method
MAE ↓
Document Quality
Interaction Quality
Llama 3.1 8B
USP
5.34
1.86
RealUserSim
6.06
2.21
CUE
3.55
1.48
GPT 5.4 Mini
RealUserSim
5.80
1.39
CUE
2.21
1.33
Table 4: Outcome calibration over SimulatorArena writing benchmark. Pairwise mean absolute error (MAE) over user-conditioned models using the benchmark’s LLM-judge grader.
Figure 4: Bidirectional stylistic proximity on PRISM. Left: Percent of generated trajectories with a human neighbor. Right: Percent of human trajectories with a generated neighbor. Methods use the same set for all measurements. Displayed intervals aggregate seeds and backbones into a 95% CI.
Appendix figures & tables19 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Dataset
Train
Dev
LMSYS Chat 1M ( Zheng et al., 2024 )
10,000
WildChat ( Zhao et al., 2024 )
10,000
ABCD ( Chen et al., 2021 )
8,034
1,004
AirDialogue ( Wei et al., 2018 )
10,000
10,000
BiTOD ( Lin et al., 2021 )
2,952
295
CaSiNo ( Chawla et al., 2021 )
900
30
Appendix
Table A1 : CUE source inventory. Reported trajectories per source split; related dataset versions are not necessarily unique conversations, and inventory counts are not annotation-retention counts.
Figure A1 : Encoder architecture. Hierarchical encoder first creates turn embeddings then aggregates them into session-level CUE.
Figure A2 : Decoder architecture. One command (or no-op) is generated for each slot.
Group
Hyperparameter
Value
Encoder
User / system backbone
nomic-ai/modernbert-embed-base
Bottleneck dimension
1024
Session dimension
1024
Session transformer layers
4
Session attention heads
8
Max turns per session
64
Appendix
Table A2: Joint encoder-decoder training hyperparameters. During the 200-step LM-format warm-up, the encoder is frozen, the decoder LM is trainable, and representation-level conditioning losses are disabled. After warm-up, the decoder LM is frozen, the remaining objectives are enabled, and the optimizer is rebuilt. ∗ Weight decay is the framework default and is not set explicitly in the configuration.
Figure A3 : Sampler Architecture. Demonstrates two possible paths for generating a novel CUE.
Group
Hyperparameter
Value
Architecture
Latent dimension
1024
MLP hidden width
1536
Depth (residual blocks)
6
Timestep embedding dim
256
Conditioner heads
4
Parameters
∼ 162M
Appendix
Table A3: Diffusion sampler hyperparameters. The sampler is trained on a single GPU. ∗ Rollout-time guidance is configured independently from the value used during training-time evaluation.
Metric
Axis
Modes
S2R-N, TT
Naturalness
Both
AVA, PT3
Mimicry
User-conditioned
S2R-C, SD-C
Coverage
Sampled
Appendix
Table A4 : Fidelity metrics and the simulator modes to which they are applied.
Method
S2R-N
TT
AVA
PT3
Success
Outcome F1
Llama 3.1 8B
None
–
0.44 [0.44, 0.44]
0.04 [0.04, 0.05]
0.19 [0.18, 0.19]
0.40 [0.39, 0.41]
0.50 [0.48, 0.52]
USP
0.26 [0.25, 0.26]
0.46 [0.44, 0.48]
0.06 [0.06, 0.06]
0.02 [0.01, 0.02]
0.07 [0.06, 0.08]
0.32 [0.32, 0.33]
PPol
0.47 [0.45, 0.49]
0.18 [0.18, 0.18]
0.26 [0.26, 0.27]
0.13 [0.13, 0.14]
0.16 [0.14, 0.18]
0.38 [0.37, 0.39]
RealUserSim
0.09 [0.09, 0.09]
0.30 [0.29, 0.30]
0.24 [0.24, 0.24]
0.17 [0.14, 0.19]
0.18 [0.18, 0.19]
0.44 [0.44, 0.44]
CUE
0.41 [0.40, 0.42]
0.22 [0.20, 0.30]
0.20 [0.20, 0.20]
0.21 [0.21, 0.21]
0.26 [0.26, 0.27]
0.46 [0.46, 0.47]
Appendix
Table A5 : Replay fidelity and success estimates with reported 95% bootstrap intervals. None has no persona injection; RealUserSim denotes RealUserSim.
Method
S2R-N
TT
S2R-C
SD-C
Success
Llama 3.1 8B
None
–
0.44 [0.44, 0.44]
0.01 [0.00, 0.02]
0.45 [0.44, 0.45]
0.40 [0.39, 0.41]
UserLM
0.56 [0.56, 0.56]
0.41 [0.40, 0.42]
0.62 [0.55, 0.66]
0.55 [0.55, 0.56]
0.22 [0.21, 0.24]
USP
0.27 [0.26, 0.27]
0.47 [0.46, 0.49]
0.00 [0.00, 0.00]
0.44 [0.44, 0.44]
0.14 [0.12, 0.15]
RealUserSim
0.09 [0.09, 0.10]
0.33 [0.30, 0.34]
0.00 [0.00, 0.00]
0.46 [0.45, 0.46]
0.26 [0.25, 0.29]
CUE
0.48 [0.47, 0.49]
0.26 [0.26, 0.26]
0.63 [0.62, 0.63]
0.55 [0.55, 0.55]
0.29 [0.28, 0.30]
Appendix
Table A6 : Sampled fidelity and success estimates with reported 95% bootstrap intervals.
Method
User Share
Success
Adjusted Success
Adjusted Gap ↓
Discordance
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.35/0.35
0.40/0.40
0.53/0.53
0.22 /0.22
0.31
UserLM
–/0.75
–/0.22
–/0.70
–/0.05
–
USP
0.94/0.93
0.07/0.14
0.53/0.37
0.22/0.38
0.08
PPol
0.44/–
0.16/–
0.30/–
0.45/–
0.18
RealUserSim
0.50/0.48
0.18/0.26
0.36/0.45
0.39/0.30
0.22
Appendix
Table A7 : Supplementary outcome summaries. Paired values are replay/sampled. Human references are 0.21 for user share, 0.61 for success, and 0.75 for adjusted success. Adjusted success removes user- and environment-attributed failures from each population separately. Discordance is the replay outcome-discordance rate on same-task pairs with different human outcome.
Method
Attribution F1
nFF
Failure Mode F1
nAA
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.35 [0.30, 0.40]
347
0.22 [0.15, 0.27]
117
USP
0.20 [0.17, 0.24]
481
0.05 [0.01, 0.08]
19
PPol
0.34 [0.30, 0.39]
446
0.13 [0.08, 0.18]
109
RealUserSim
0.34 [0.29, 0.38]
447
0.22 [0.15, 0.28]
109
CUE
0.38 [0.33, 0.43]
411
0.20 [0.14, 0.26]
118
Appendix
Table A8 : Conditional replay agreement and support. Reported 95% intervals are in brackets. nFF counts overlapping human–simulator failures; nAA counts pairs where both failures are agent-attributed. Each method selects a different subset.
Method
User Share
Agent TVD
Adjusted Success
Discordance
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.35 [0.32, 0.38]
0.36 [0.31, 0.46]
0.53 [0.50, 0.56]
0.31 [0.25, 0.37]
USP
0.94 [0.93, 0.95]
0.31 [0.25, 0.48]
0.53 [0.45, 0.61]
0.08 [0.05, 0.11]
PPol
0.44 [0.41, 0.47]
0.35 [0.29, 0.44]
0.30 [0.27, 0.34]
0.18 [0.13, 0.23]
RealUserSim
0.50 [0.48, 0.53]
0.32 [0.27, 0.42]
0.36 [0.32, 0.39]
0.22 [0.18, 0.25]
CUE
0.34 [0.31, 0.37]
0.34 [0.29, 0.45]
0.43 [0.39, 0.46]
0.28 [0.22, 0.33]
Appendix
Table A9 : Replay conditional summaries with reported 95% intervals.
Method
User Share
Agent TVD
Adjusted Success
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.35 [0.32, 0.38]
0.36 [0.31, 0.46]
0.53 [0.50, 0.56]
UserLM
0.75 [0.72, 0.77]
0.31 [0.25, 0.48]
0.70 [0.65, 0.75]
USP
0.93 [0.91, 0.94]
0.93 [0.87, 0.98]
0.37 [0.32, 0.42]
RealUserSim
0.48 [0.45, 0.50]
0.32 [0.27, 0.42]
0.45 [0.42, 0.49]
CUE
0.34 [0.31, 0.37]
0.33 [0.29, 0.44]
0.46 [0.42, 0.49]
Appendix
Table A10 : Sampled conditional summaries with reported 95% intervals.
Pairing
AVA
PT3
Paired
0.27
0.38
Shuffled
0.20
0.21
Appendix
Table A11 : Gemini mimicry: paired versus shuffled sessions.
Sampling Mode
S2R-C
SD-C
Unconditional
0.83
0.57
Neighborhood
0.84
0.49
Bank
0.77
0.56
Appendix
Table A12 : Gemini coverage for the three sampling modes.
Method
User Share
Llama 3.1 8B
None
0.35 /
0.35
UserLM
– /
0.75
USP
0.94 /
0.93
PPol
0.44 /
–
RealUserSim
0.50 /
0.48
Appendix
Table A13 : Conditional user-side shares among labeled failures from the expanded results. Human reference: 0.21. Results are reported as user-conditioned/sampled.
Base
Model
Naturalness
Mimicry
Coverage
S2R-N ↑
TT ↓
AVA ↑
PT3 ↑
S2R-C ↑
SD-C ↑
SimulatorArena
Llama 3.1 8B
UserLM
– /
0.64
– /
0.37
–
0.84
0.62
USP
0.41 /
0.38
0.40 /
0.42
0.50
0.01
0.11
0.52
RealUserSim
0.29 /
0.21
0.19 /
0.39
0.50
0.05
0.00
0.50
CUE
0.23 /
0.27
0.17 /
0.21
0.44
0.06
0.83
0.56
Appendix
Table A14 : Out-of-domain user fidelity results for SimulatorArena and PRISM. Naturalness results are reported for user-conditioned/sampled methods while mimicry is only reported for user-conditioned methods and coverage is only reported for sampled methods.
Interaction
Executed replacement
Refund
Reward
Human
8555936349 (outside order)
$32.48
0
CUE, seed 0
8555936349 (outside order)
$32.48
0
None, seed 0
1646531091 (within order)
$26.48
1
Appendix
Table A15: Executed outcomes for the selected episode. All three interactions call exchange_delivered_order_items on order #W3470184 , replacing item 2757705742 and using gift_card_7245904 . The native task requires replacement 1646531091 .
Interaction
Reward
Executed outcome
Match?
Human
0
Incorrect target 8555936349
Ref.
CUE paired
0
Same incorrect target 8555936349
Yes
None
1
Correct target 1646531091
No
PPol
1
Corrects its choice before execution
No
RealUserSim paired, no examples
0
No exchange; unsupported order ID
No
UserLM
0
No exchange; unsupported item IDs
No
Appendix
Table A16: Observed outcomes on the selected episode and seed. “Match” requires the same incorrect exchange as the human, not merely reward 0. USP sampled is a population-sampling reference, not paired replay. Prompt provenance limits are described below.
As NLP evaluation shifts from static benchmarks to multi-turn interactive settings, LLM-based simulators have become widely used as user proxies, serving two roles: generating user turns and providing evaluation signals. Yet, these simulations are frequently assumed to be faithful to real human behaviors, often without rigorous verification. We formalize the Sim2Real gap in user simulation and present the first study running the full τ-bench protocol with real humans (451 participants, 165 tasks), benchmarking 31 LLM simulators across proprietary, open-source, and specialized families using the User-Sim Index (USI), a metric we introduce to quantify how well LLM simulators resemble real user interactive behaviors and feedback. Behaviorally, LLM simulators are excessively cooperative, stylistically uniform, and lack realistic frustration or ambiguity, creating an "easy mode" that inflates agent success rates above the human baseline. In evaluations, real humans provide nuanced judgments across eight quality dimensions while simulated users produce uniformly more positive feedback; rule-based rewards are failing to capture rich feedback signals generated by human users. Overall, higher general model capability does not necessarily yield more faithful user simulation. These findings highlight the importance of human validation when using LLM-based user simulators in the agent development cycle and motivate improved models for user simulation.
Xuhui Zhou, Weiwei Sun, Qianou Ma +8
Carnegie Mellon University, Language Technologies Institute
Interactive agent benchmarks and multi-turn reinforcement learning increasingly place a second language model in the role of the user. This simulated user controls what information the agent receives and when, yet current benchmarks score only the agent and do not directly measure whether the user correctly executed its assigned role. We introduce UserProxyBench, an evaluation layer over the tau-bench family, and the User Fidelity Score (UFS), which measures adherence to the benchmark's private user instructions using task-grounded rubric criteria scored independently of agent success. Holding the agent fixed at GPT-5.5 and varying only the user proxy across 375 enterprise tasks changes mean task reward by 15.2 points, while 24.4% of successful episodes contain a user-specification violation. The dominant failure is premature disclosure: users provide information before it is requested. This behavior has little effect on task reward, yet among successful episodes it causes the agent to make 1.06 fewer tool calls on average, changing the interaction being evaluated while preserving the reward. Finally, across seven proxies we identify an empirical cost-fidelity frontier, enabling practitioners to select the least expensive simulator that satisfies a required fidelity level.
LLM-based user simulation is the primary mechanism for end-to-end agent evaluation, yet simulated users are poor proxies for real humans: unconstrained LLM defaults produce a Formalism Ceiling (style match rates of 6-8% against real users), while hand-crafted behavioral directives trigger Directive Amplification, where models hyper-interpret instructions into unnatural behavioral extremes that vary dramatically across simulator models. We present RealUserSim, the first user simulation framework grounded in real behavioral data. From 14,000+ authentic human-LLM conversations (WildChat), we extract 7,275 executable behavioral profiles and use them to ground LLM simulators. A fidelity benchmark (PT3) on 600 conversations across 71+ domains with anti-leakage controls shows that grounded simulation raises match rate from 24.2% to 45.3% across five behavioral dimensions. Agent evaluation on TauBench with 6 simulator models and extensive analysis shows that grounded simulation acts as a realistic stress test, surfacing three failure mechanisms invisible to cooperative simulators (mean -3.2% to -3.5% task success degradation), while Directive Amplification in existing benchmarks produces unrealistic behavior that compromises the validity of agent evaluation.