Capability Scaling-Down Laws for LLM Compression
Organizations: Florida State University · Nokia Applied Research
Abstract
LLM compression reduces inference costs and memory requirements, but selecting a method and configuration remains largely empirical because comparable resource reductions can produce different capability losses. We systematically investigate capability scaling-down laws for LLM compression across pruning, quantization, and distillation. Our framework measures capability loss in mathematics, code generation, and question answering, and relates these measurements to model size, training stage, compression settings, data availability, and training exposure. We develop simple predictive relations and evaluate their accuracy, measurement efficiency, and generalization to unseen configurations and model states. Sharing the density response across pruning levels halves the configuration measurements needed to fit a pruning predictor: on new Pythia states, on pre-registered OLMo-2 test states and under Wanda pruning, the compact relation matches a regression fitted with all measurements on math and code to within 0.020 nats per token, with coefficients refitted for each setting. Controlled distillation experiments show that the cost of heavy data reuse recurs across question-answering distributions, while the net benefit depends on the evaluation distribution. We further evaluate the decision value of these predictions by comparing numerical selection with configuration medians and fixed method priorities. Independent evaluations across two model families show that selection captures most of the available cross-method benefit for question answering within the tested candidate sets, where a fixed method priority attains the same regret, with smaller opportunities for mathematics and code. These results clarify the predictive scope of capability scaling-down laws and their use in compression method selection. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/LabRAI/scaling_down_law.
Figures & tables
| Pythia, magnitude | OLMo-2, magnitude | Pythia, Wanda | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Form | Grid | Math | Code | Math | Code | Math | Code |
| Compact power form | Half | 0.073 | 0.104 | 0.017 | 0.020 | 0.023 | 0.026 |
| Quadratic strength form | Half | 0.115 | 0.142 | 0.026 | 0.045 | 0.026 | 0.048 |
| Strength only | Half | 0.098 | 0.166 | 0.018 | 0.029 | 0.031 | 0.046 |
| Median density curve | Half | 0.145 | 0.212 | 0.026 | 0.039 | 0.029 | 0.046 |
| Per-density regression | Half | 0.108 | 0.136 | 0.025 | 0.035 | 0.024 | 0.032 |
| Error | Gain over baseline | ||||||
| Test | Delivered relation | Math | Code | QA | Math | Code | QA |
| Pruning, | |||||||
| Three new checkpoints | Median density curve † | 0.277 | 0.214 | 0.221 | 0.047 | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| Quantization, | |||||||
| Group sizes 32 and 512 | Interpolation; median for QA † | 0.065 | 0.116 | 0.458 | 0.268 | 0.562 | 0.000 |
| A new 1.4 billion stage | Development median † | 0.088 | 0.153 | 0.141 | 0.262 | 0.410 | 0.000 |
Appendix figures & tables41 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Cohort | Models and states | Interventions | Role in the study |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heterogeneous panel | Twelve public checkpoints from 5 series and 4 families: Qwen3 (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B), Gemma-3 (270M to 27B), Gemma-4 (31B), Muse (30B), OLMo-3 (7B, 32B); two further Qwen3 checkpoints (8B, 14B) measured prospectively at four densities. | Global magnitude pruning at ten densities in ; per-channel round-to-nearest quantization at 8, 6, 5, 4 and 3 bits. | Establishes the phenomena and the limits of cross-family transfer; screens the measurement noise. |
| Controlled Pythia panel | Development states: 160M, 410M and 1.4B at steps 16k, 64k and 143k (nine states). Held-out states: 160M, 410M and 1.4B at step 96k; 1B at steps 32k, 96k and 112k; 6.9B at steps 32k and 112k. | Pruning at four development densities (0.9 to 0.6) with tests at 0.75, 0.65 and 0.55; quantization at 8, 6, 4 and 3 bits with a test at 5 bits. | Development set for pruning and quantization; tests along the source axis and the configuration axis. |
| Distillation, controlled | The nine Pythia development states as students; one fixed teacher pool of 600 traces per domain; Low-rank adaptation adapters under one recipe. | A fixed distillation recipe. | Tests source transfer of the signed response . |
| Distillation, pools | Gemma-3-1B student; pools of 75 and 600 traces per domain for fitting and 225 for testing; three pool seeds and two training seeds. | Processed-token budget and reuse ratio . | Tests transfer to an unseen trace pool. |
| Distillation, heterogeneous | Gemma-3 students from 270M to 12B, OLMo-3-7B and Qwen3 0.6B to 4B; two teachers accessed through an application programming interface; full traces compared with answer-only traces. | Varied distillation recipes. | Describes measured responses. |
| Model | Loss change at density 0.7 | Math at density 0.5 | Threshold density | QA least; most affected | Lowest QA change (density) | ||
| Math | Code | QA | |||||
| Qwen3-0.6 billion | +0.49 | +0.56 | -0.26 | +4.72 | 0.60 | 3/3; 0/3 | -0.26 (0.70) |
| Qwen3-1.7 billion | +0.24 | +0.19 | -0.51 | +3.60 | 0.60 | 6/6; 0/6 | -0.90 (0.62) |
| Qwen3-4 billion | -0.00 | -0.09 | -0.79 | +1.31 | 0.50 | 5/5; 0/5 | -1.96 (0.55) |
| Qwen3-8 billion | +0.03 | +0.10 | -0.41 | +1.03 | 0.50 | 4/4; 0/4 | -1.39 (0.50) |
| Qwen3-14 billion | +0.06 | +0.03 | -0.45 | +0.67 | 0.40 | 4/5; 0/5 | -0.80 (0.60) |
| Model | Series | Loss change at 4 bits | Loss change at 3 bits | All measured bit widths | ||||
| Math | Code | QA | Math | Code | QA | |||
| Qwen3-0.6 billion | Qwen3 | +0.56 | +0.73 | +0.21 | +8.83 | +10.83 | +6.61 | 8,6,5,4,3 |
| Qwen3-1.7 billion | Qwen3 | +0.40 | +0.16 | -0.21 | +9.53 | +9.46 | +8.10 | 8,6,5,4,3 |
| Qwen3-4 billion | Qwen3 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +0.39 | +10.73 | +11.85 | +5.99 | 8,6,5,4,3 |
| Qwen3-8 billion | Qwen3 | +0.28 | +0.48 | -0.80 | +12.86 | +13.55 | +9.45 | 8,6,5,4,3 |
| Qwen3-14 billion | Qwen3 | +0.09 | +0.31 | -0.23 | +9.30 | +10.79 | +6.45 | 8,6,4,3 |
| Math | Code | QA | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Density | Magnitude | Wanda | Magnitude | Wanda | Magnitude | Wanda |
| Qwen3, 4B | 0.9 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| 0.8 | +0.00 | +0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.29 | +0.04 | |
| 0.7 | -0.00 | +0.05 | -0.09 | +0.04 | -0.79 | +0.08 | |
| 0.6 | +0.15 | +0.10 | -0.00 | +0.13 | -1.76 | -0.01 | |
| 0.5 | +1.31 | +0.19 | +0.90 | +0.24 | -1.48 | -0.41 | |
| Capability | Exponent | Intercept | Source size | Initial loss | Pretraining tokens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Math | 3.75 | +3.275 | +0.319 | +3.850 | +0.250 |
| Code | 3.05 | +4.499 | +0.273 | +5.357 | +0.347 |
| QA | 3.05 | -7.409 | -0.481 | +5.486 | +0.106 |
| Prediction task | Pre-specified candidate | Candidate error (nats) | Delivered relation | Strongest development baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three unseen checkpoints pruned to densities 0.575, 0.675 and 0.85 | Five-parameter power form | 0.243 / 0.236 / 0.678 | Source-free median density curve Retrospective | Per-density regression; median for QA |
| Pythia 410 million and 1.4 billion at unseen group sizes 32 and 512, bit widths 3 to 5 | Source regression, the median and no change | 0.215 / 0.557 / 0.457 | Interpolate math and code; use the median for question answering Retrospective | Bilinear regression; no change; median |
| An unseen 1.4 billion stage at bit widths 3 to 5, group sizes 32 to 512 | Source regression, the median and no change | 0.303 / 0.153 / 0.222 | Development median Retrospective | Bilinear regression; no change; median |
| Gemma 270 million distilled on six new pools at 50 to 200 thousand tokens | Reuse forms, with a budget and pool form for question answering | 0.074 / 0.019 / 0.515 | The same predictor | Budget regression; reuse regression for Code and QA |
| Gemma 1 billion distilled on six new pools at 50 to 200 thousand tokens | Reuse forms, with a budget and pool form for question answering | 0.057 / 0.049 / 0.463 | The same predictor | Loss regression; reuse regression; size regression |
| Compression method | Capability | Separate capability response | Shared response with scale | Shared response with offset | Shared response only | Gain over scaled shared response [95% confidence interval] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pruning | Math | 0.2279 | 0.2328 | 0.2249 | 0.1677 | 0.0048 [-0.0495, 0.0591] |
| Code | 0.1736 | 0.1776 | 0.1750 | 0.1098 | 0.0040 [-0.0181, 0.0228] | |
| QA | 0.1818 | 0.3500 | 0.4626 | 0.6165 | 0.1683 [0.1054, 0.2434] | |
| Capability mean | 0.1944 | 0.2535 | 0.2875 | 0.2980 | 0.0590 [0.0206, 0.1025] | |
| Grouped quantization | Math | 0.3234 | 0.3343 | 0.3380 | 0.3439 | 0.0109 [0.0024, 0.0160] |
| Code | 0.3838 | 0.3744 | 0.4485 | 0.4312 | -0.0094 [-0.0234, 0.0226] |
| Law | What is shared | What varies | Held-out error, shared against capability-specific |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pruning power | Power family | Source coefficients and exponent | 0.494 against 0.494 |
| Grouped quantization | Separable family | Source coefficients and exponents | 2.962 against 2.398 |
| Distillation exposure | family | Source coefficients; inactive | 0.542 against 0.275 |
| Pruning sharing | One Exponent | Source coefficients | 0.491 against 0.494 |
| Quantization sharing | two-dimensional term vectors | Capability offsets | 3.999 against 2.398 |
| Pruning Math | Power family | Source amplitudes, Exponent | Exponent minimum, median, maximum: 3.00, 4.60, 6.00 |
| Student | Capability | Selected | Baseline | Relation error | Baseline error | Improvement [95% confidence interval] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-3-270 million | Math | Reuse response | Budget only | 0.0743 | 0.0654 | -0.0088 [-0.0098, -0.0081] |
| Code | Reuse response | Reuse only | 0.0193 | 0.0230 | 0.0038 [0.0025, 0.0050] | |
| QA | Joint budget-pool response | Reuse only | 0.5150 | 0.6097 | 0.0947 [0.0774, 0.1093] | |
| Gemma-3-1 billion | Math | Reuse response | Response surface, initial loss | 0.0569 | 0.0335 | -0.0234 [-0.0235, -0.0233] |
| Code | Reuse response | Reuse only | 0.0485 | 0.0532 | 0.0047 [0.0042, 0.0050] | |
| QA | Joint budget-pool response | Response surface, student size | 0.4634 | 0.4502 | -0.0132 [-0.0198, -0.0098] |
| Predictor (development measurements per capability) | Math | Code | QA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power form (18) | 0.073 | 0.104 | 0.179 |
| Power form (36) | 0.062 | 0.109 | 0.223 |
| Per-density regression (36) | 0.060 | 0.084 | 0.177 |
| Median density curve (36) | 0.112 | 0.170 | 0.183 |
| Median density curve (18) | 0.145 | 0.212 | 0.186 |
| Measurements per capability | Predictor | Math | Code | QA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Power form | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Per-density regression | / | / | / |
| 9 | Median curve | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| 18 | Power form | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
| 18 | Per-density regression | 0.24 (6/20 fits) | 0.28 (6/20 fits) | 0.76 (6/20 fits) |
| 18 | Median curve | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| Probes | New items | ||||||
| Predictor | Development grid | Math | Code | QA | Math | Code | QA |
| Compact power form | Reduced (12) | 0.017 | 0.020 | 0.062 | 0.012 | 0.029 | 0.045 |
| Quadratic strength form | Reduced (12) | 0.026 | 0.045 | 0.061 | 0.030 | 0.056 | 0.041 |
| Strength only | Reduced (12) | 0.018 | 0.029 | 0.076 | 0.019 | 0.037 | 0.050 |
| Median density curve | Reduced (12) | 0.026 | 0.039 | 0.074 | 0.030 | 0.051 | 0.048 |
| Per-density regression | Reduced (12) | 0.025 | 0.035 | 0.062 | 0.030 | 0.046 | 0.043 |
| Probes | New items | ||||||
| Predictor | Development grid | Math | Code | QA | Math | Code | QA |
| Compact power form | Reduced (18) | 0.023 | 0.026 | 0.058 | 0.025 | 0.030 | 0.048 |
| Quadratic strength form | Reduced (18) | 0.026 | 0.048 | 0.038 | 0.028 | 0.052 | 0.042 |
| Strength only | Reduced (18) | 0.031 | 0.046 | 0.039 | 0.033 | 0.050 | 0.039 |
| Median density curve | Reduced (18) | 0.029 | 0.046 | 0.033 | 0.029 | 0.050 | 0.049 |
| Per-density regression | Reduced (18) | 0.024 | 0.032 | 0.060 | 0.026 | 0.034 | 0.049 |
| 18 measurements | 36 measurements | ||||||
| Form | Parameters | Math | Code | QA | Math | Code | QA |
| Compact power form | 5 | 0.073 | 0.104 | 0.179 | 0.062 | 0.109 | 0.223 |
| Linear strength (fixed exponent one) | 4 | 0.151 | 0.183 | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.359 |
| Quadratic strength, same inputs | 5 | 0.115 | 0.142 | 0.206 | 0.187 | 0.238 | 0.317 |
| Strength only, no source inputs | 2 | 0.098 | 0.166 | 0.243 | 0.084 | 0.153 | 0.239 |
| Median density curve | one per density | 0.145 | 0.212 | 0.186 | 0.112 | 0.170 | 0.183 |
| Predictor | Target measurement used | Math | Code | QA | Pooled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pruning-law form | none | 0.167 | 0.151 | 0.117 | 0.145 |
| Pruning-law form | one accuracy at density 0.9 | 0.139 | 0.128 | 0.090 | 0.119 |
| Loss route: median curve and link | none | 0.264 | 0.253 | 0.274 | 0.264 |
| Loss route: median curve and link | one loss at density 0.9 | 0.323 | 0.313 | 0.301 | 0.312 |
| Link on the measured loss | the target’s own loss | 0.159 | 0.180 | 0.102 | 0.147 |
| Readout | Student | Budget (k tokens) | Outcome | Measured interval (k independent tokens) | Recommended pool (k independent tokens) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boundary relation | Fixed reuse | Per-student interpolation | |||||
| Math | 1 billion | 50 | non-monotone | unresolved | 32.2, unresolved | 9.0, unresolved | 158.4, unresolved |
| Math | 1 billion | 100 | Crossed in range | 32.2, inside | 32.2, inside | 32.2, inside | |
| Math | 1 billion | 200 | Crossed in range | 32.2, inside | 32.2, inside | 32.2, inside | |
| Math | 4 billion | 50 | Upper bound | 38.1, | 9.0, inside | 158.4, | |
| Math | 4 billion | 100 | Crossed in range | 38.1, inside | 38.1, inside | none | |
| Family | Configuration: median relative error |
|---|---|
| Pruning | : 0.9%; 0.85: 4.3%; 0.8: 5.3%; 0.75: 11.1%; 0.7: 16.0%; 0.65: 28.2%; 0.6: 44.4% |
| Grouped quantization | 5 bits: 1.6–2.7% at each group size; 4 bits: 3.3% to 9.2% by group size; 3 bits: 35.9% |
| Per-channel quantization | 8 bits: 2.5%; 6 bits: 3.0%; 5 bits: 4.2%; 4 bits: 23.8%; 3 bits: 53.9% |
| Role | Model and stage | Matrix parameters | Weights seen in earlier work | What is new in this round |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference 1 | Pythia 410M, training step 120000 | 302M | No | No earlier use; first compression |
| Student for reference 1 | Pythia 160M, training step 120000 | 85M | No | No earlier use; first training |
| Reference 2 | Pythia 1.4B, training step 120000 | 1.21B | No | No earlier use; first compression |
| Student for reference 2 | Pythia 410M, training step 120000 | 302M | No | No earlier use; first training |
| Reference 3 | Gemma 3, 1B | 698M | Yes | New candidates, familiar weights |
| Student for reference 3 | Gemma 3, 270M | 100M | Yes | Retrained from familiar weights |
| Reference | Objective | Opportunity | Rule regret | Quantization-only regret |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pythia 410M, step 120000 | Math | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Code | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| QA | 0.117 | 0.027 | 0.592 | |
| Largest increase | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
| Pythia 1.4B, step 120000 | Math | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Code | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Reference | Objective | Pristine opportunity | Distillation opportunity change | Other methods | Pre-specified opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pythia 410M | Math | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Code | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000227 | 0.000227 | |
| QA | 0.005770 | 0.083639 | 0.027125 | 0.116534 | |
| Largest increase | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000939 | 0.000939 | |
| Pythia 1.4B | Math | 0.000276 | -0.000276 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Code | 0.007068 | -0.007068 | 0.000037 | 0.000037 |
| Reference | Objective | Opportunity | Priority | Median | Relations | Rule | Rule gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pythia 410M, step 120000 | Math | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Code | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
| QA | 0.117 | 0.027 | 0.027 | 0.059 | 0.027 | 0.089 | |
| Largest increase | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
| Pythia 1.4B, step 120000 | Math | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.045 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Code | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Reference | Model (policies) | Loss | Exact match, 32 tokens | Exact match, 96 tokens | Token F1, 96 tokens | Truncated (percent) | Loss difference from the quantization-only choice |
| Pythia 410M, step 120000 | pruned to density 0.8 (oracle) | 5.138 | 0.109 | 0.117 | 0.140 | 32 | -0.66 [-0.75, -0.57] |
| grouped 4 bits, group 32 (quantization oracle) | 5.388 | 0.094 | 0.102 | 0.122 | 38 | -0.41 [-0.51, -0.30] | |
| per-channel 4 bits (rule, quantization only, oracle, quantization oracle) | 5.797 | 0.044 | 0.049 | 0.069 | 42 | 0.00 (reference) | |
| per-channel 6 bits (quantization oracle) | 5.224 | 0.174 | 0.143 | 0.183 | 23 | -0.57 [-0.69, -0.46] | |
| distilled student (rule, oracle) | 5.246 | 0.029 | 0.089 | 0.126 | 73 | -0.55 [-0.68, -0.42] | |
| initial student | 5.219 | 0.070 | 0.078 | 0.110 | 51 | -0.58 [-0.70, -0.46] |
| Candidate | Nominal storage ratio | Bytes as a fraction of the dense reference |
|---|---|---|
| Dense reference | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Pruning, density 0.9 | 0.900 | bitmap 0.963; compressed sparse row 1.802 |
| Pruning, density 0.8 | 0.800 | bitmap 0.863; compressed sparse row 1.602 |
| Pruning, density 0.7 | 0.700 | bitmap 0.762; compressed sparse row 1.402 |
| Pruning, density 0.6 | 0.600 | bitmap 0.662; compressed sparse row 1.202 |
| Per-channel 8 bits | 0.500 | 0.501 |
| Capability | Policy | Regret | Method agreement (percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Math | Final selection rule | 0.0000 | 98.5 |
| Math | Source-conditioned | 0.0149 | 98.5 |
| Math | Quantization only | 0.0068 | 94.1 |
| Math | Cheapest feasible | 1.7716 | 73.5 |
| Code | Final selection rule | 0.0043 | 95.6 |
| Code | Source-conditioned | 0.1124 | 100.0 |
| Compression method | Capability | State status | Response predictor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pruning | Mathematics | Seen source state; new density | Pruning power form |
| Pruning | Code | Seen source state; new density | Pruning power form |
| Pruning | Question answering | Seen source state; new density | Pruning development median curve |
| Pruning | Mathematics | New size or new stage | Pruning development median curve |
| Pruning | Code | New size or new stage | Pruning development median curve |
| Pruning | Question answering | New size or new stage | Pruning development median curve |
| Compression method | Capability | State status | Response predictor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Mathematics | Seen state | Piecewise source interpolation |
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Code | Seen state | Piecewise source interpolation |
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Question answering | Seen state | Per-configuration development median |
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Mathematics | New state | Per-configuration development median |
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Code | New state | Per-configuration development median |
| Grouped round-to-nearest quantization | Question answering | New state | Per-configuration development median |
| Readout | Original | With end marker | Difference [95%] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pythia 1.4B reference, student Pythia 410M | |||
| Loss, nats per token | 4.860 | 4.853 | -0.007 [-0.060, +0.047] |
| Exact match, 32 new tokens | 0.065 | 0.083 | +0.018 [-0.010, +0.049] |
| Exact match, 96 new tokens | 0.076 | 0.076 | +0.000 [-0.034, +0.031] |
| Token F1, 96 new tokens | 0.117 | 0.106 | -0.011 [-0.045, +0.023] |
| Reached the 96-token cap | 0.628 | 0.005 | -0.622 [-0.672, -0.573] |
| Budget | Information available | Cost to disclose |
|---|---|---|
| Metadata only (K0) | , public , architecture, configuration | may be undisclosed |
| Plus dense anchor (K0) | Plus the dense losses , measured once | One forward pass per probe |
| One target calibration (K1) | Plus one pre-specified target measurement | Its configuration and cost |
| Oracle diagnostic | Rescaling on measured target outcomes | None; measures form misfit |
LLM Compression
Large language model compression reduces the memory, compute, and context costs of LLMs while aiming to preserve their capabilities.
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