One-Step Curvature Probes Miss the Fitting Operator: Retained Capacity and Terminal Null-Space Correction for Continual Learning

Continual learning requires new-task adaptation without damaging previously acquired capabilities. Recent forward-pass and zeroth-order (ZO) results show that low-query adaptation may retain better than first-order (FO) descent, but the usual view of ZO as noisy FO estimation does not explain why. We give a local randomized gradient-shaping analysis: finite differences expose a raw shape that is mean-aligned with FO, while the norm-matched comparator fixes the expected squared adaptation norm. Under this controlled comparison, forgetting depends on how the adaptation shape exposes retention curvature. For norm-matched ZO, the expected shaped retention curvature obeys an exact identity that preserves the isotropic retention floor while contracting only the anisotropic component. Projecting this identity onto the incoming gradient yields the observable FO--ZO quadratic forgetting gap: ZO improves mean forgetting precisely when the FO direction has above-average retention curvature, by a query-dependent fraction of that curvature excess. A practical finite-query accounting separates the mean mechanism from one-batch sampling and smoothing perturbations. As an algorithmic transfer, RISE applies the calibrated ZO shape to exact FO gradients inside parameter blocks. Its target is a stability--plasticity tradeoff: randomized shaping may reduce the retention exposure paid by FO, exact gradients remove finite-smoothing bias from finite-difference ZO, and blockwise sampling supplies many local shaping directions after one gradient computation. The blockwise analysis separates mean-step damage from centered random exposure, showing how block-diagonal curvature, cross-block coupling, and local shaping diagnostics specify where this exact-gradient transfer is most likely to be visible.

Local loss-landscape stabilization under sample growth is typically measured either pointwise or through isotropic averaging in the full parameter space. Despite practical value, both choices probe directions that contribute little to the dominant local deformation of strongly anisotropic neural landscapes. We recast stabilization as an observational problem and introduce a unified family of criteria parameterized by an aggregation order and a probing distribution; within this family we propose a curvature-aligned criterion $Δ_2^{(D)}$ that probes the loss increment field in the top-$D$ eigenspace of the empirical Hessian near a trained solution. Solely from a local quadratic model, we prove that $Δ_2^{(D)}$ preserves the $O(k^{-2})$ mean-squared rate of the full-space criterion while replacing ambient-dimension curvature dependence with dependence on the subspace dimension $D$; a corollary gives a closed-form spectral expression and a proposition identifies the top-$D$ eigenspace as extremal within the eigenspace-aligned family. We also derive scalable estimators based on Hessian-vector products, subspace Monte Carlo, and a closed-form Gaussian-moment proxy. On a decoder-only transformer, a curvature-aligned probe occupying a tiny fraction of parameter space already reproduces the full-space mean-squared signal to within numerical noise throughout the validated local regime, and the closed-form estimator is orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte Carlo after subspace construction.

Alleviating catastrophic forgetting while enabling further learning is a primary challenge in continual learning (CL). Orthogonal-based training methods have gained attention for their efficiency and strong theoretical properties, and many existing approaches enforce orthogonality through gradient projection. In this paper, we revisit orthogonality and exploit the fact that small singular values correspond to directions that are nearly orthogonal to the input space of previous tasks. Building on this principle, we introduce NESS (Null-space Estimated from Small Singular values), a CL method that applies orthogonality directly in the weight space rather than through gradient manipulation. Specifically, NESS constructs an approximate null space using the smallest singular values of each layer's input representation and parameterizes task-specific updates via a compact low-rank adaptation (LoRA-style) formulation constrained to this subspace. The subspace basis is fixed to preserve the null-space constraint, and only a single trainable matrix is learned for each task. This design ensures that the resulting updates remain approximately in the null space of previous inputs while enabling adaptation to new tasks. Our theoretical analysis and experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate competitive performance, low forgetting, and stable accuracy across tasks, highlighting the role of small singular values in continual learning. The code is available at https://github.com/pacman-ctm/NESS.