ProtocolMatch: Protocol-Dependent Model Selection for Scientific Dynamics Forecasting

Scientific forecasting typically relies on direct state prediction, an approach that grows brittle under data scarcity, extended horizons, non-stationary dynamics, or high-dimensional complexity. While raw state trajectories are highly sensitive in these regimes, underlying local evolution rules often exhibit robust reusability. We introduce mechanism learning, a framework that forecasts future states by estimating the currently active local mechanism. Our method compresses local spatiotemporal fragments into mechanism descriptors, forming a data-driven, structured mechanism space where proximity reflects similar local evolution rules. To ground these estimates in observed data, we utilize prototype anchors, a set of representative mechanisms that sparsely cover the space of local rules. We evaluate this approach on Burgers dynamics, WeatherBench2, and Lorenz96. Empirically, the learned mechanism spaces resist collapse and maintain strong local consistency. Compared to direct prediction and other models including FNO, NODE, LSTM, and reservoir-family methods, our framework demonstrates predictive gains in fragile regimes: it significantly improves switching stability in Burgers dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance both under the scarce-data fixed-horizon WeatherBench2 protocol and in intermediate-complexity Lorenz96. Ablation studies and drift diagnostics confirm that these improvements are driven by finite prototype anchoring rather than sheer latent capacity. Together, these results establish mechanism learning as a principled, robust alternative to direct state prediction in forecasting complex systems.

Machine-learning models for physical systems are currently evaluated primarily through errors between predicted and reference states and, increasingly, through tests of physical consistency. These metrics assess whether predictions are accurate and satisfy selected physical requirements, but provide limited insight into whether learned trajectories reproduce the underlying dynamics. Domain experts examine such relationships through physical representations that expose relevant processes, interactions, and responses, but these analyses are often separated from typical machine-learning evaluation. We introduce a practical framework for evaluating dynamical fidelity through predictive structure in physical representation spaces. Experts define the representations, while reference trajectories determine which relationships are predictive and retained as evaluation tests. We demonstrate the approach in atmospheric forecasting using ERA5 representations of planetary-wave activity and Northern Annular Mode evolution, and evaluate Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, and FengWu. The models exhibit distinct departures from reference predictive structure that are not reflected by conventional forecast errors. The framework thereby turns domain-expert representations into systematic tests of learned physical dynamics without prescribing the relationships in advance.

Large language models (LLMs) show strong capabilities in general reasoning but typically lack reliability in scientific domains like quantum mechanics, which demand strict adherence to physical constraints. This limitation arises from the scarcity of verifiable training resources and the inadequacy of coarse feedback signals in standard alignment paradigms. To address the data challenge, we introduce QuantumQA, a large-scale dataset constructed via a task-adaptive strategy and a hybrid verification protocol that combines deterministic solvers with semantic auditing to guarantee scientific rigor. Building on this foundation, we propose the verification-aware reward model (VRM) tailored for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), which employs an adaptive reward fusion (ARF) mechanism to dynamically integrate deterministic signals from a scientific execution suite (SES) with multidimensional semantic evaluations for precise supervision. Experimental results demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms baselines and general-purpose preference models. Notably, our optimized 8B model achieves performance competitive with proprietary models, validating that incorporating verifiable, rule-based feedback into the reinforcement learning loop offers a parameter-efficient alternative to pure scaling.