Large-Scale Benchmarking of Quantum Neural Network Configurations for Financial Time Series Forecasting

This research investigates the performance and efficacy of machine learning models in stock prediction, comparing Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Quantum Qubit-based Neural Networks (QQBNs), and Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Networks (QQTNs). By outlining methodologies, architectures, and training procedures, the study highlights significant differences in training times and performance metrics across models. While all models demonstrate robust accuracies above 70%, the Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Network consistently outperforms with advantages in risk-adjusted returns, measured by the Sharpe ratio, greater consistency in prediction quality through the Information Coefficient, and enhanced robustness under varying market conditions. The QQTN not only surpasses its classical and qubit-based counterparts in multiple quantitative and qualitative metrics but also achieves comparable performance with significantly reduced training times. These results showcase the promising prospects of Quantum Qutrit-based Neural Networks in practical financial applications, where real-time processing is critical. By achieving superior accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability, the proposed models underscore the transformative potential of quantum-inspired approaches, paving the way for their integration into computationally intensive fields.

Photonic quantum computing has recently emerged as a promising platform for hybrid quantum machine learning due to its native realization of linear-optical circuits and the computational complexity of boson sampling. However, despite growing interest in quantum methods for finance, the influence of photonic circuit design choices on predictive performance remains largely unexplored. Existing studies typically evaluate a single architecture, leaving the broader photonic design space unexamined. In this work, we present Q-PhotoMarket, a systematic design space exploration (DSE) framework for photonic hybrid quantum neural networks (HQNNs) applied to financial market prediction. We explore over 5,000 valid photonic configurations spanning input photon states, circuit architectures, entangling models, and measurement strategies across their compatible computation spaces, for U.S., Indian, and cryptocurrency markets. To improve search efficiency, the exhaustive exploration is complemented with Bayesian optimization. We further incorporate threshold calibration and prediction-collapse diagnostics to enable reliable evaluation under increasingly imbalanced return thresholds. Experimental results show that systematic exploration of more than 5,000 photonic HQNN configurations reveals consistent architectural patterns across financial markets, identifies robust high-performing designs, and demonstrates competitive performance relative to classical machine learning baselines.

In a global derivatives market with notional values in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, the accuracy and efficiency of pricing models are of fundamental importance, with direct implications for risk management, capital allocation, and regulatory compliance. In this work, we employ the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) framework not as an end in itself, but as a controlled benchmark environment in which to rigorously assess the capabilities of quantum machine learning methods. We propose a fully quantum approach to option pricing based on Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs), and, to the best of our knowledge, present one of the first implementations of such a methodology on currently available quantum hardware. Specifically, we investigate whether QNNs, by exploiting the geometric structure of Hilbert space, can effectively approximate option pricing functions. Our implementation utilizes a compact 2-qubit QNN architecture evaluated across multiple state-of-the-art quantum processors, including IBM Fez, IQM Garnet, IonQ Forte, and Rigetti Ankaa-3. This cross-platform study reveals distinct hardware-dependent performance characteristics while demonstrating that accurate pricing approximations can be achieved consistently across different devices despite the constraints of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) hardware. The results provide empirical evidence that QNN-based approaches constitute a viable framework for derivative pricing. While the analysis is conducted within the BSM setting, the broader significance lies in the potential extension of these methods to more realistic and computationally demanding models, including local volatility, stochastic volatility, and interest rate frameworks commonly used in practice.