Looking Under the Streetlight: Evaluation in Generative Molecular Dynamics

We present AquaGen, the first all-atom, explicit solvent, periodic-boundary-condition-aware generative model that produces molecular configurations from the Boltzmann distribution at a fraction of the cost of molecular dynamics (MD). This is in contrast with existing generative models that remove degrees of freedom by operating on coarse-grained, vacuum, or implicit solvent systems. Operating at this resolution allows for post-processing through force field energy evaluations and MD simulations, and enables the prediction of relevant properties in a gray-box manner (as ensemble averages of potential energy evaluations over generated samples). We demonstrate the utility of this paradigm on absolute hydration free energy (AHFE), producing estimates 4-10x faster and with comparable accuracy to standard GPU-based MD. By generating uncorrelated samples from alchemical Boltzmann distributions, we create more accurate, interpretable, and refinable ensemble predictions with calibrated uncertainty estimates, unlike regression methods which are entirely black-box predictors. Our approach also yields predictable benefits from increasing train- and test-time compute, realized by scaling model size and generating more samples, respectively. We believe that this approach demonstrates the utility of high-resolution ensemble generation for free energy estimation, with future potential to replace MD in tasks such as the prediction of lipophilicity, membrane permeability, or absolute binding free energy (ABFE) -- whose grounding and interpretability may be critical for the development of new drugs and materials.

The promise of AI-driven scientific discovery hinges on whether AI agents can autonomously design and execute the computational workflows that underpin modern science. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation presents a natural test bed to stress-test this claim; it requires translating physical intuition into syntactically and semantically correct input scripts, reasoning about initial and boundary conditions, diagnosing numerically unstable trajectories, and interpreting outputs against known physical behavior and laws. We introduce MDGYM, a benchmark of 169 expert-curated MD simulations spanning LAMMPS and GROMACS, two widely used MD packages, across three increasing difficulty levels. We evaluate three agentic frameworks -- Claude Code, Codex, and OpenHands -- with four LLMs, and find that all perform poorly: even the strongest agent solves only 21% of easy-level tasks, with less than 10% at higher difficulties. Trajectory analysis reveals a characteristic pattern of failure -- agents successfully invoke simulation machinery but produce physically unstable configurations, fabricate numerical outputs without executing the underlying computation, or abandon tasks prematurely rather than iterating through simulation-specific errors. These failure modes are qualitatively distinct from those observed in general software engineering benchmarks, indicating that fluent code generation does not transfer to grounded physical reasoning.

Generative molecular models can support early drug discovery by proposing new candidate compounds de novo. In practice, useful candidates must balance target-relevant activity, synthetic accessibility, physicochemical properties, and other multiparameter design constraints. However, metrics commonly used to evaluate molecular generators only weakly reflect whether the generated compounds are medicinally plausible and suitable for downstream computation. This can produce false positives in model evaluation, incorrect assumptions, and inefficient use of computational resources. We introduce HEDGEHOG, a unified six-stage filtration benchmark that is inspired by industrial hit identification workflows: (i) preprocessing; (ii) physicochemical descriptor screening; (iii) structural alerts and graph-sanity checks; (iv) synthesis feasibility; (v) docking and binding affinity estimation; and (vi) three-dimensional pose and interaction checks. We evaluate 23 molecular generators across three model classes under a standardized protocol. Across 230,000 generated molecules, only 0.65% of initial molecules survive all stages. Our results expose a central limitation of current molecular generators: molecules that appear acceptable under isolated criteria rarely satisfy medicinal chemistry, synthesis, docking, and 3D pose filters simultaneously.