From Candidate Tokens to Final Outcomes: Decoding Relative Long-Horizon Candidate Value from Reasoning Model Representations

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning improves multi-step problem solving, but long reasoning traces inflate inference cost. Token-level CoT compression reduces this cost by pruning full reasoning chains into shorter traces for model adaptation, making token selection the central challenge. Existing methods often rely on external scorers or heuristic signals only indirectly tied to the model's internal answer computation. We instead adopt a model-internal perspective: as the model forms an answer, each reasoning token induces a ripple in the residual stream whose effect on the answer reflects the token's contribution to the underlying computation. Building on this view, we propose MIST (Model-Internal Saliency for Token-level CoT compression), which defines token importance along two complementary axes: necessity, the drop in answer likelihood when a token's internal contribution is removed, and sufficiency, the gain in answer likelihood when that contribution alone is provided. Combining the two yields a unified importance score for pruning. Across four reasoning benchmarks and four models, MIST consistently outperforms baseline methods, suggesting that model-internal saliency provides an effective proxy for reasoning-token importance.

Chain-of-Thought reasoning has enabled large language models to achieve substantial performance gains on complex tasks. However, these gains come at the cost of dramatically increased token consumption. This raises a fundamental question: is every token in the reasoning trace equally valuable? We present a diagnostic and optimization framework grounded in a key empirical finding: the value of tokens within a CoT reasoning sequence is highly non-uniform, and this non-uniformity can be effectively characterized by token-level log probability signals. We show that normalized log probability helps distinguish core tokens, which carry structural and decisive reasoning content, from redundant tokens, which are exploratory, low-confidence filler that contributes less directly to the final answer. Building on these findings, we formulate the TokenProbe framework around two empirical findings and one claim: findings identify token value inequality first and then establish TokenProbe as a core-token proxy, and the claim introduces an efficient GRPO objective positing that selectively compressing redundant tokens can yield Pareto improvements in the accuracy-token efficiency space. Empirically, our method preserves reasoning quality while reducing the token usage by 76% of the baseline. Under matched reasoning-length budgets, we show that it can even outperform strong flagship baselines like Gemini-3.1-Pro. Homepage: https://runjia.tech/tokenprobe/.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) substantially outperform their base LLM counterparts on challenging reasoning benchmarks, yet it remains poorly understood where base models go wrong during token-by-token generation and how to narrow this gap efficiently. We study the base-reasoning gap through quantifying token-level distributional disagreement between a base model and a stronger reasoning model using likelihood-based divergences. Across benchmarks, we find that the reasoning advantage is highly sparse and concentrates on a small set of early, planning-related decision tokens. For instance, on Qwen3-0.6B, only ~8% of generated tokens account for the salient disagreement, and these tokens concentrate early in the response, are strongly enriched in planning-related decisions (17x), and coincide with high base-model uncertainty -- suggesting that base models fail mainly at early planning points that steer the subsequent reasoning trajectory. Building on these findings, we propose disagreement-guided token intervention, a simple inference-time delegation scheme that performs a one-token takeover by the reasoning model only at high-disagreement positions and immediately switches back to the base model. With a small intervention budget, this sparse delegation substantially recovers and can even surpass the performance of a same-size reasoning model on challenging reasoning tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/AlphaLab-USTC/RRTokenIntervention.