SpecFit: Not All Draft Tokens Cost the Same in Offloaded MoE Inference

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have become an important approach for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs), but their inference efficiency depends strongly on expert activation patterns. Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive generation by verifying multiple draft tokens in parallel, yet existing draft selection strategies primarily optimize acceptance likelihood. In large-scale MoE models, however, selecting draft tokens also determines the union of experts activated during verification. We observe that confidence-driven SD can introduce expert scattering: high-probability draft tokens may route to disjoint experts, increasing expert-weight memory traffic and reducing the speedup from speculation. Motivated by this observation, we revisit draft-tree selection under the non-uniform memory-cost structure of MoE inference. We propose EcoSpec, a cost-aware speculative decoding framework that incorporates predicted marginal expert activation cost into draft selection. With a lightweight expert predictor and a dynamic expert buffer, EcoSpec favors draft paths that preserve high acceptance likelihood while reusing experts already covered by the current verification set, without modifying the target-model verification rule. We evaluate EcoSpec on three large-scale MoE models, including DeepSeek-V3.1 (671B), Qwen3-235B-A22B, and GPT-OSS-120B, across reasoning, coding, question-answering, and dialogue benchmarks. EcoSpec consistently reduces active expert footprints and improves end-to-end decoding speed, achieving up to $1.62\times$ speedup. These results show that accounting for expert activation cost is important for efficient speculative decoding in large-scale MoE models.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by verifying multiple drafted tokens in parallel. However, for Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, this parallelism introduces a severe bottleneck: large draft trees activate many unique experts, significantly increasing memory pressure and diminishing speedups from speculative decoding relative to autoregressive decoding. Prior methods reduce speculation depth when MoE verification becomes expensive. We propose MoE-Spec, a training-free verification-time expert budgeting method that decouples speculation depth from memory cost by enforcing a fixed expert capacity limit at each layer, loading only the experts that contribute most to verification and dropping the long tail of rarely used experts that drive bandwidth overhead. Experiments across multiple model scales and datasets show that this method yields 10--30% higher throughput than state-of-the-art speculative decoding baselines (EAGLE-3) at comparable quality, with flexibility to trade accuracy for further latency reductions through tighter budgets.

Large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models are attractive for end-device deployment because only a small subset of experts is active per token, but their routed expert weights often exceed accelerator memory. We target latency-critical single-user settings where routed experts are staged on demand from CPU memory to a GPU or from Flash to a mobile NPU. In this setting, self-speculative decoding faces a new bottleneck: increasing the draft expert set improves accuracy but triggers extra expert loading, while cheap small-footprint drafts have low acceptance; moreover, verifying a multi-token block activates the union of target experts and is no longer close to one target step. We propose DraftExpert, an expansion-aware self-speculative decoding framework for expert-offloaded MoE inference. DraftExpert trains one lightweight accelerator-resident draft expert per layer by self-distilling residual, logit/token, and router-agreement signals from the frozen target MoE. At inference time, it uses a fixed-footprint shared+top-1+draft-expert drafter together with confidence--expansion truncation and target-expert prefetching, while final tokens are still exactly verified by the target model. On DeepSeek-V2-Lite and Moonlight-16B-A3B across CPU-GPU and Flash-NPU offload, DraftExpert improves decode throughput by 1.45x on average, raises draft acceptance to 8487%, and achieves 8688% prefetch hit rates.