Visible but Not Avoided: State-Dependent Re-Proposal of Rejected Candidates in Catalog-Based LLM Optimization Loops
Abstract
LLM optimization loops often show the proposer the candidates it has already tried and rejected, but leave it to the proposer to avoid them. We ask whether avoidance measured in a static probe predicts avoidance in the states an optimizer's own trajectory produces. In catalog-based loops where three open LLMs improve a GUI agent by naming one of 40 edits, a re-proposal is identified exactly by the edit's name. Clean base-state probes underpredict re-proposal in the proposers' own loops (macro-averaged loop-minus-probe rate 0.32 [0.27, 0.37]), and proposals of already evaluated harness-edit pairs consume 28-63% of valid proposer iterations. The two settings reject different edits: a probe's rejected edits are mostly ones the proposer did not choose, whereas a loop's are its own earlier choices, which remain preferred when the history is removed. Ordinary history lowers re-proposal for two proposers but raises it for the third, and the effects of failure evidence are model-specific. Stating the rejection status in one sentence lowers re-proposal in every model (-0.16 [-0.22, -0.09] relative to a neutral list of the same IDs). For catalog-based loops with exact edit identities, rejection avoidance should be measured on the rejected sets the loop produces.
Figures & tables
| Own loops | Clean probe | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposer | Cat. | [95% CI] | [95% CI] | |||
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | 22/130 | 0.43 [ 0.56, 1.21] | 0/30 | 1.46 | 0.17 [0.08, 0.26] |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | B | 34/156 | 0.30 [ 0.27, 0.84] | 0/30 | 1.46 | 0.22 [0.13, 0.31] |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | A | 121/167 | 3.52 [3.27, 3.69] | 2/30 | 1.84 | 0.66 [0.52, 0.75] |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | B | 94/158 | 2.69 [1.98, 3.38] | 3/30 | 1.40 | 0.49 [0.31, 0.66] |
| Qwen3-VL-32B | A | 16/161 | 0.89 [ 1.74, 0.30] | 0/30 | 1.46 | 0.10 [0.05, 0.16] |
| Original 120 states | Fresh R4 intervention subset (120 states) | ||||||
| Role | Condition | Rate | [95% CI] | log OR | Rate | [95% CI] | log OR |
| Reference | A: unchanged state | 0.34 | – | – | 0.30 | – | – |
| Baseline preference | H: no history (matched) | 0.51 | 0.21 [0.11, 0.31] | 0.68 | |||
| Localization | M: same-harness probe | 0.30 | 0.05 [ 0.11, 0.01] | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.04 [ 0.07, 0.01] † | 0.36 † |
| Failure evidence | B: failure examples removed | 0.15 | 0.19 [ 0.25, 0.13] | 1.92 | 0.14 | 0.17 [ 0.23, 0.10] | 1.49 |
| R: neutral text, approx. length-matched | 0.24 | 0.07 [ 0.13, 0.01] | 0.56 | ||||
Appendix figures & tables18 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Registration file | Registered (UTC) | First paid call (UTC) | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| VRR_CONFIRM.json | 2026-10-04 06:49:05 | 2026-10-04 06:49:43 | 0.393 |
| VRR_INTERVENE.json | 2026-10-04 06:49:05 | 2026-10-04 07:15:52 | 0.375 |
| VRR_REASONING.json | 2026-10-04 06:49:05 | 2026-10-04 07:17:11 | 1.208 |
| VRR_REASONING_AMEND1.json | 2026-10-04 08:34:01 | 2026-10-04 08:34:25 | 0.144 |
| VRR_QUAL.json | 2026-10-04 06:49:05 | 2026-10-04 07:20:41 | 0.014 |
| VRR_R2_REASONING.json | 2026-10-04 10:10:24 | 2026-10-04 10:12:04 | 0.282 |
| Claim | Where | Evidence | Falsifier | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loop re-proposal exceeds clean-probe re-proposal | § 5.1 | H1: 0.32 [0.27, 0.37]; H1b: 6/6 cells | CI includes 0; fewer than 4 cells | registered, supported |
| M and A satisfy the preregistered equivalence criterion | § 5.1 | H15: M A 0.04 [ 0.07, 0.01] (90%), 360 fresh states | CI outside | registered, passes , not |
| Ordinary history changes re-proposal relative to matched no-history | § 5.1 | H14a: A H 0.21 [ 0.30, 0.11] | CI includes 0 | registered, supported pooled (decrease); reversed for Mistral |
| Failure deletion lowers re-proposal | § 5.2 | H2a 0.19; H13a 0.17 [ 0.23, 0.10] | CI includes 0 | registered, supported (both rounds) |
| Failure content beyond approximate text-bulk control | § 5.2 | H13b: R A 0.07 [ 0.13, 0.01] | Holm | registered, not supported (Holm 0.071) |
| Choice follows shuffled failure attachment | § 5.2 | H13c: J K 0.07; H13d: follow 0.03 0.05 | no difference | registered, not supported |
| Test | Contrast | Rate difference [95% CI] | Hierarchical CI | log OR [95% CI] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H13a | B A | 120 | 0.17 [ 0.23, 0.10] | [ 0.25, 0.08] | 1.49 [ 2.21, 0.94] | 0.001 |
| H13b | R A | 120 | 0.07 [ 0.13, 0.01] | [ 0.15, 0.02] | 0.56 [ 1.16, 0.04] | 0.071 |
| H13c | J K | 65 | 0.07 [ 0.02, 0.16] | [ 0.03, 0.18] | 0.53 [ 0.10, 1.24] | 0.928 |
| H13d | follow S A | 102 | 0.02 [ 0.01, 0.05] | – | – | 0.425 |
| H13e | P F | 120 | 0.05 [ 0.10, 0.01] | [ 0.11, 0.00] | 1.15 [ 2.40, 0.31] | 0.054 |
| H13f | E A | 120 | 0.27 [ 0.32, 0.22] | [ 0.34, 0.20] | 3.61 [ 5.05, 2.89] | 0.001 |
| Test | Contrast | Effect [95% CI] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H4a | thinking instruct (both 4000 tok.) | 40 states | 0.40 [ 0.55, 0.25] | 0.001 |
| H4b | instruct 4000 200 tok. | 36 states | 0.06 [ 0.06, 0.17] | 0.689 |
| H5 | same-harness probe loop state | 117 states | 0.05 [ 0.11, 0.01] | 0.177 |
| H6a | DO-NOT neutral list | 120 states | 0.23 [ 0.29, 0.18] | 0.001 |
| H6b | neutral list unchanged | 117 states | 0.06 [ 0.13, 0.01] | 0.177 |
| Model | Calls | Providers | Largest shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | 3295 | 13 | NextBit 34%, Cloudflare 22%, DekaLLM 11%, … |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | 2962 | 3 | Venice 57%, DeepInfra 34%, Parasail 9% |
| Qwen3-VL-32B | 3021 | 1 | Alibaba 100% |
| Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct | 347 | 6 | Alibaba 39%, StreamLake 32%, SiliconFlow 10%, … |
| Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking | 256 | 1 | Alibaba 100% |
| Qwen3-VL-8B (agent) | 2640 | 3 | PrimeIntellect 44%, Alibaba 43%, Parasail 13% |
| Model | Provider | F/N calls | Paired states | F N [95% CI] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-4 | Cloudflare | 26/26 | 9 | 0.15 [ 0.33, 0.00] |
| Gemma-4 | Io Net | 14/13 | 5 | 0.07 [0.00, 0.20] |
| Gemma-4 | Makora | 18/18 | 7 | 0.33 [ 0.67, 0.05] |
| Gemma-4 | NextBit | 47/45 | 16 | 0.11 [ 0.28, 0.01] |
| Mistral | DeepInfra | 18/11 | 9 | 0.11 [ 0.39, 0.11] |
| Mistral | Parasail | 15/14 | 7 | 0.21 [ 0.79, 0.43] |
| Experiment | USD |
|---|---|
| VRR-P0-1 | 0.3381 |
| VRR-P0-1-probe | 0.0545 |
| VRR-P0-2 | 0.3748 |
| VRR-P1 | 1.1997 |
| VRR-P1-cross | 0.1440 |
| VRR-P1-probe | 0.0085 |
| State subset | M A [90% CI] | Run-hierarchical [90% CI] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A and M identical | 117 | 0.000 [0.000, 0.000] | – |
| A and M differ | 243 | 0.057 [ 0.097, 0.016] | [ 0.113, 0.003] |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | 98 | 0.005 [ 0.060, 0.068] | – |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | 71 | 0.099 [ 0.178, 0.019] | – |
| Qwen3-VL-32B | 74 | 0.099 [ 0.164, 0.036] | – |
| Contrast | Gemma-4-26B-A4B | Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | Qwen3-VL-32B |
|---|---|---|---|
| B A | 0.03 [ 0.05, 0.12] | 0.31 [ 0.45, 0.17] | 0.22 [ 0.30, 0.13] |
| R A | 0.05 [ 0.03, 0.14] | 0.04 [ 0.18, 0.10] | 0.21 [ 0.30, 0.12] |
| J K | 0.17 [0.05, 0.30] | 0.04 [ 0.17, 0.24] | 0.02 [ 0.16, 0.12] |
| A H | 0.57 [ 0.71, 0.42] | 0.31 [0.12, 0.49] | 0.36 [ 0.53, 0.19] |
| F N | 0.14 [ 0.25, 0.04] | 0.22 [ 0.37, 0.05] | 0.11 [ 0.18, 0.05] |
| P F | 0.00 [ 0.07, 0.08] | 0.15 [ 0.26, 0.05] | 0.01 [ 0.04, 0.00] |
| Proposer (states) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B (37) | 0.11 [ 0.19, 0.05] (0.054) | 0.01 [ 0.12, 0.09] (1.000) | 0.19 [ 0.31, 0.09] (0.018) | 0.16 [ 0.27, 0.05] (0.063) |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B (40) | 0.31 [ 0.45, 0.17] (0.002) | 0.03 [ 0.09, 0.15] (1.000) | 0.11 [ 0.23, 0.01] (0.546) | 0.57 [ 0.69, 0.43] ( 0.001) |
| Qwen3-VL-32B (40) | 0.14 [ 0.22, 0.06] (0.021) | 0.10 [0.00, 0.20] (0.546) | 0.05 [ 0.15, 0.06] (1.000) | 0.16 [ 0.23, 0.10] ( 0.001) |
| Proposer | Cat. | View | Seed | Elig. | Valid | Kept | Final dev | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | FULL | 20 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 0.850 |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | FULL | 21 | 27 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 0.867 |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | FULL | 22 | 25 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0.850 |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | W8 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 0.850 |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | W8 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0.850 |
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | A | W8 | 22 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 0.867 |
| A | B | Kind | Catalog-A description |
|---|---|---|---|
| E01 | RF1 | prompt | Briefly describe the screen before choosing an action. |
| E02 | ZQ7 | prompt | Double-check your answer before replying. |
| E03 | NK3 | prompt | Accuracy is very important for this task. |
| E04 | WV1 | decode | Lower the output token limit from 48 to 16 to save cost. |
| E05 | VG3 | prompt | If you are unsure, choose the most prominent element on the… |
| E06 | YV2 | prompt | Put the final reply on the last line, prefixed with FINAL:. |
| Line of work | What is established | Assumption we test | How we test it |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLM optimizers with shown history ( Yang et al., 2024 ; Agrawal et al., 2026 ; Lee et al., 2026 ; Lu et al., 2026 ; Yang et al., 2026 ) | showing tried candidates and failures helps search | a shown rejection is avoided | in reached states; no-history baseline (§ 5.1 ) |
| Static instruction following ( Zhou et al., 2023a ; Jiang et al., 2024 ) | compliance in one response | avoidance is a trait measured once | clean probe vs. own loop vs. reconstructed state (§ 5.1 ) |
| Negative and omission constraints ( Castricato et al., 2024 ; Rana, 2026 ; Gamage, 2026 ) | prohibitions are fragile; prior pressure drives violations | pressure is a fixed prior | no-history baseline at the reached harness; status vs. prohibition (§ 5.3 ) |
| Failure records and repetition ( Gumaan, 2026 ; Yang, 2026 ; Xu et al., 2022 ) | a visible failed action is repeated; “do not repeat” does not help (135M–1.7B) | the failure record drives repetition | approximately length-matched neutral text, attachment shuffle, status sentence (§ 5.2 – 5.3 ) |
| Knowing vs. acting ( Kruthof, 2026 ; Dong et al., 2026 ) | models restate what they violate | stated reasons explain choices | stated reasons vs. content controls (§ 5.4 ) |
| Reasoning vs. compliance ( Fu et al., 2025 ; Li et al., 2025 ) | reasoning lowers static-instruction compliance | this generalises to all constraints | instruct/thinking pair, provider-pinned (§ 5.4 ) |
| Proposer | States | Replay (A) | No failures (B) | DO-NOT (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma-4-26B-A4B | 27 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Mistral-Small-3.2-24B | 48 | 39 | 42 | 6 |
| Qwen3-VL-32B | 44 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Large Language Model-Guided Optimization
Large Language Model-Guided Optimization uses language models to propose, steer, and refine solutions to hard search and design problems.
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