Twenty Days Later: A Pre-Registered Test of History-Based Forecasts of Brand Mentions in Gemini Answers

Audits of AI visibility summarise the brand recommendations of deployed language models into per-system profiles. We test whether such a profile describes the system on one corpus of 6,475 stored responses (6,324 analysable) collected between December 2025 and February 2026 from five deployed endpoints across gift-recommendation, corporate-reputation and category-ownership queries. The collection harness cut many answers short: 83.1% of Gemini 3 Flash answers in category ownership end mid-sentence under a 1,024-token output cap. With every answer cut to its first 800 characters, a character n-gram classifier cross-validated by prompt attributes one response to GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Flash, Gemini 3 Flash with search, Grok or Perplexity sonar-pro with 97.84% accuracy (5,028 responses, 383 prompts, majority class 31.5%, 30 split seeds). Length alone falls to the majority rate, 24 formatting statistics reach 95.79%, and masking brand names and capitalised tokens leaves 97.72%. Held-out query conditions keep 97.43% weighted by size and 88.0% unweighted; in a retrieval-grounded arm that changes the harness, no Grok answer is attributed to Grok (0/120). Aggregated into 50 model-by-domain-by-condition units, twelve behavioural features separate four systems at 66.53% under grouped cross-validation, against a label-permutation null with mean 33.71% and 95th percentile 46.0%. Across domains the aggregate profile fails: a forest trained on category-ownership units assigns all 22 gift units to the wrong system, consistent with a reversal in brand volume (8.41 against 0.94 brands per response in gifts, 3.01 against 3.91 in category ownership), while single responses transfer at 89.92% balanced accuracy. The surface form of an answer carries the system across the query domains tested; aggregated brand behaviour does not, and the uncrossed design cannot separate the system from the domain or the harness.

Prior work on AI brand visibility measures the firm: does a model recommend a company, and does that track its reputation. This study asks the question one level down, in categories where the buyer picks a person. It issued 2,400 grounded API calls in one two-hour window on 24 July 2026: 120 buyer-intent prompts, four models (GPT-5.6 Sol, Gemini 3.6 Flash, Perplexity Sonar Pro, Grok 4.5), five iterations each, four European markets and five query languages. Every response was coded for whether it named an individual professional, by a rule cascade that never consults a roster and that drops detections resolving to a same-named American city (precision 96.9%, recall 61.7%, so every rate below is a lower bound). All inference corrects for clustering within prompt: intraclass correlation 0.258, effective n 407 against a nominal 2,400. Models named an individual in 25.8% of responses. Category dominates: real estate 35.4% and car dealerships 32.9% against insurance 9.1% (chi-square 159.3, p = 5.8e-8 after correction). Models differ four-fold, from Grok 38.0% to Gemini 9.3%. Citation type predicts naming and citation volume does not: naming responses cite the individual's own site 2.6 points more often (95% CI +1.4 to +3.9) and category portals 4.3 points more often, and cite firm-owned pages at the same rate (44.1% against 45.5%). On nine matched translation pairs, English prompts named an individual in 36.7% of responses against 15.6% for the same question in the local language (OR 3.14, clustered p = 0.074, so the direction is clear and the design cannot close it). A 939-person roster built from public LinkedIn search matched 128 of 27,293 name-shaped mentions (0.47%), 26 of the 939 people were ever named, and the roster-derived rates of 0.0% to 25.4% measure that overlap. Roster-based measurement of individual AI visibility sees a small and unrepresentative slice of what models do.

When a large language model (LLM) answers a question about a company, it grounds the answer in retrieved web sources, and those sources decide what the model says. Most analysis of AI brand visibility looks at the answer text. This study looks one step earlier, at the citations. We merge three Rankfor.AI datasets covering 128 brands across 12 home markets and 13 languages, and analyse 167,551 URL-grounded citations (189,974 total attribution rows). We classify each citation by domain and source type and measure where AI gets its brand information, by language and by market. Four patterns hold. First, AI grounds brand answers overwhelmingly in third-party sources: 85.7% of citations point to sites the brand does not own, against 14.3% owned. Second, the source base is concentrated and long-tailed: 80% of citations come from about 18% of domains, fitting a Zipf law (alpha = 0.86, R^2 = 0.983). Third, one reference site dominates almost everywhere: Wikipedia is the most-cited domain in 11 of 12 languages, the exception being Lithuanian, where the business daily vz.lt edges it (4.38%). Fourth, the source mix is market-specific at the margin: for 46 Polish national brands the most-cited domain is YouTube, and four HR and careers portals supply 637 citations against 297 for Polish Wikipedia, about twice as many.