Selective Reasoning for Typed Decision Models: When to Start, Read, and Stop

Large language models often reason at length before answering, increasing cost and latency. Prompts and trained settings can shorten this reasoning, but a shorter trace may only show that the model stopped sooner. Here, we evaluate paired runs of the same question at matched reasoning horizons across 198 GPQA Diamond and 500 MMLU-Pro questions. We test a numeric/concision prompt that announces a token limit for Qwen3-14B and the trained effort settings of gpt-oss-20b and -120b. The Qwen prompt shortens reasoning traces by 12-17%, while accuracy changes at matched token limits are small and mixed. A concise/early-answer instruction raises MMLU-Pro accuracy by 3.8 percentage points at 512 tokens, including +2.7 points when both runs are unfinished. Its gain at 2,048 tokens is uncertain. For gpt-oss, candidate-logit answers from completed low- and medium-effort reasoning are 14.5-26.3 points more accurate than matched-horizon high-effort answers. Most of the 512-token advantage comes from lower effort finishing earlier, while differences among unfinished runs are smaller and mixed. Wrong early answers often concentrate probability on the chosen option, so earlier stopping does not uniformly improve probability quality. In these tests, a tight deadline can favor lower effort or a concise instruction, whereas allowing high effort to finish can recover higher final accuracy. Evaluations should report correct completion before a deadline, the answer obtained when a run is stopped, differences among unfinished runs, and probability assigned to the correct answer separately.

Typed decision models answer a declared question without generating text: a decision head returns a probability for each of the declared options in a single forward pass. A single pass is fast, intuitive System 1 thinking. We study what lies between one pass and generated reasoning: looping, in which the same layers are recursively applied several times before one typed readout. Each loop lets the model revise its hidden state before it commits to an answer, without generating a token; we call this System 1.5 thinking. We propose SanSi, which turns a pre-trained looped language model into a typed decision model. The option probabilities are read after every loop, and every loop is trained with a proper scoring rule, so that one model serves every budget from one loop to eight in a single run. On 10,027 test decisions from 59 sources, SanSi reaches 72.0% accuracy: 13.5 points above a non-looped model of the same shape trained with the same recipe, 5.3 points above a newer non-looped model of its size, and 1.8 points below one with three times the parameters. On two depth-controlled tasks, loops extend the solvable depth beyond the depths seen in training, where the larger single-pass model fails. Used as the judge for policy optimization with reinforcement learning, without gold answers, SanSi raises the share of the generator's correct answers from 37% to 52%.

Large Language Models often achieve strong performance by generating long intermediate chain-of-thought reasoning. However, it remains unclear when a model's final answer is actually determined during generation. If the answer is already fixed at an intermediate stage, subsequent reasoning tokens may constitute post-decision explanation, increasing inference cost and latency without improving correctness. We study the evolution of predicted answers over reasoning steps using forced answer completion, which elicits the model's intermediate predictions at partial reasoning prefixes. Focusing on Qwen3-4B and averaging results across all datasets considered, we find that predicted answers change in only 32% of queries. Moreover, once the final answer switch occurs, the model generates an average of 760 additional reasoning tokens per query, accounting for a substantial fraction of the total reasoning budget. Motivated by these findings, we investigate early stopping strategies that halt generation once the answer has stabilized. We show that simple heuristics, including probe-based stopping, can reduce reasoning token usage by 500 tokens per query while incurring only a 2% drop in accuracy. Together, our results indicate that a large portion of chain-of-thought generation is redundant and can be reduced with minimal impact on performance.